本文選題：邏輯斯蒂生長模型　切入點(diǎn)：天津港　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：天津港是我國北方的第一大港,其港口規(guī)模和競爭力與港口自身的集疏運(yùn)能力息息相關(guān)。港口的集疏運(yùn)能力直接影響著港口的發(fā)展,一般而言,良好的集疏運(yùn)條件能夠促進(jìn)港口的擴(kuò)張和發(fā)展,反之則會起到抑制發(fā)展的效果。集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)的重要性也越來越受到研究學(xué)者們的注意,在港口經(jīng)濟(jì)迅猛發(fā)展的今天,港口之間的競爭也越發(fā)激烈,港口間的競爭正由港口集疏運(yùn)層面向港口腹地集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)延伸。 天津港的目前的發(fā)展處于什么階段?天津港具備什么樣的競爭力?天津港與其港口集疏運(yùn)存在何種關(guān)系?目前港口的集疏運(yùn)條件如何?本文針對以上問題,結(jié)合模型分析,在學(xué)者們前期研究工作的基礎(chǔ)上有如下創(chuàng)新: 1.利用港口發(fā)展與種群模型的相似性,運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)理論和遺傳算法,模擬港口規(guī)模的發(fā)展軌跡。分析發(fā)現(xiàn)港口目前已經(jīng)越過邏輯斯蒂生長曲線的中點(diǎn),發(fā)展速度將逐步放緩。天津港競爭力直接反映在與其它上市港口公司的直接比較中,結(jié)果顯示,天津港整體具備較強(qiáng)的競爭力,在管理效率和腹地交通建設(shè)這兩個(gè)方面存在不足。 2.以高速公路里程數(shù)和集裝箱吞吐量為評價(jià)指標(biāo),通過對互利共生模型的平衡點(diǎn)和穩(wěn)定性分析得出,高速公路里程數(shù)與集裝箱吞吐量的共同發(fā)展存在一個(gè)必要的比例前提,進(jìn)而得出天津港與腹地集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)之間也需要達(dá)到一定比例,才能實(shí)現(xiàn)“互利共生”式的發(fā)展。 3.利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)DEA模型打開以往DEA效率研究中的“黑箱”,得到天津港綜合的效率評價(jià)以及各個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的效率評價(jià)。結(jié)果表明,天津港在內(nèi)部管理中的核心競爭力在于成本控制能力突出,在盈利效率,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制等方面都存在欠缺。 4.將天津港的直屬腹地,濱海新區(qū)主城區(qū)各道路之間的聯(lián)系抽象成無標(biāo)度的復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò),通過度、路徑長度、聚集系數(shù)和魯棒性等拓?fù)涮匦缘姆治霭l(fā)現(xiàn),濱海新區(qū)主城區(qū)的公路網(wǎng)絡(luò)是一個(gè)典型的小世界網(wǎng)絡(luò),聚集系數(shù)偏低,對隨機(jī)攻擊具有較強(qiáng)的魯棒性,對惡意攻擊的魯棒性較差。網(wǎng)絡(luò)的核心區(qū)域位于以洋貨市場為中心的道路區(qū)域。 通過天津港與集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)之間的分析研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)天津港與其集疏運(yùn)都存在著一些問題,本文對這些問題予以一定的說明并提出相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:Tianjin Port is the largest port in the north of China. Its port size and competitiveness are closely related to the port's own capacity of collecting and distributing. The port's capacity of collecting and distributing directly affects the development of the port, generally speaking, Good transportation conditions can promote the expansion and development of the port, otherwise it will have the effect of restraining the development. The importance of the collecting and distributing system has been paid more and more attention by the researchers. Today, with the rapid development of the port economy, The competition between ports is becoming more and more intense, and the competition between ports is extending from the port transportation level to the port hinterland distribution system. Tianjin Port's current development in what stage? What kind of competitiveness does Tianjin Port have? What is the relationship between Tianjin Port and its port transportation? What are the current conditions of port transportation? This paper aims at the above problems, combined with the model analysis, on the basis of the previous research work of scholars, there are the following innovations:. 1. Using the similarity between port development and population model, using statistical theory and genetic algorithm to simulate the development trajectory of port scale, it is found that the port has crossed the midpoint of the logical Stey growth curve. The speed of development will gradually slow down. The competitiveness of Tianjin Port is directly reflected in the direct comparison with other listed port companies. The results show that Tianjin Port as a whole has strong competitiveness. In the management efficiency and hinterland traffic construction in these two aspects of deficiencies. 2. Taking expressway mileage and container throughput as evaluation indexes, through the analysis of equilibrium point and stability of mutually-beneficial symbiotic model, it is concluded that there is a necessary proportional premise for the common development of expressway mileage and container throughput. It is concluded that Tianjin Port and its hinterland transportation system also need to reach a certain proportion in order to realize the development of "mutualism and mutualism". 3. Using the network DEA model to open the "black box" of the former DEA efficiency research, get the comprehensive efficiency evaluation of Tianjin Port and the efficiency evaluation of each subsystem. The core competitiveness of Tianjin Port in internal management lies in its outstanding ability of cost control and its deficiency in profit efficiency and risk control. 4. Abstract the connection between the roads in the main urban area of Binhai New area into a scale-free complex network, through the analysis of topological characteristics such as degree, path length, aggregation coefficient and robustness, etc. The highway network in main urban area of Binhai New area is a typical small-world network with low aggregation coefficient and strong robustness to random attacks. The core area of the network lies in the road area centered on the foreign goods market. Through the analysis and research between Tianjin Port and its collecting and distributing system, it is found that there are some problems in Tianjin Port and its distribution system. This paper gives some explanation to these problems and puts forward some corresponding suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F552;F224

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