本文選題：長江中游　切入點：貨運需求預測　出處：《武漢理工大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：內(nèi)河航運在世界貨物運輸史上一直占有著重要地位,中國擁有一個包含5600多條可通航河流,大約總長度119000千米的內(nèi)河水運系統(tǒng),有著200個內(nèi)河港,是亞洲最發(fā)達的內(nèi)河運輸系統(tǒng)。而長江是中國內(nèi)河航運最重要的一條黃金水道。長江干線是長江流域內(nèi)各產(chǎn)業(yè)要素橫向運動最重要的通道,是長江流域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要紐帶。長江經(jīng)濟帶聚集眾多資源、人口及產(chǎn)業(yè),是國家總體發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略格局的核心板塊。長江航運發(fā)揮著帶動沿江經(jīng)濟發(fā)展及產(chǎn)業(yè)布局的重要作用。隨著中部地區(qū)的逐漸崛起和產(chǎn)業(yè)梯度轉(zhuǎn)移進程的加快,長江中游省市加快了發(fā)展；以農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工、冶金、石化、汽車和建材等為主的產(chǎn)業(yè)帶已經(jīng)在長江中游地區(qū)形成。2011年,中游腹地以占長江沿線32%的土地、35%的人口,完成了30%的GDP、25%的實際利用外資,在長江流域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中占據(jù)著十分重要的位置。目前,對長江干線的需求分析,主要集中在長江干線全線以及下游航段,針對長江中游航段進行需求分析的文獻還很少。分析長江中游水運需求,可以幫助更好的進行中游的航運規(guī)劃,為銜接長江中游與下游運輸,綜合發(fā)展長江航運助力。 本文利用回歸模型、指數(shù)平滑模型、灰色系統(tǒng)模型、以及基于信息熵的組合預測模型,再結(jié)合馬爾科夫鏈,根據(jù)長江中游幾個主要貨種和主要港口不同的特點,對其水路貨運量和港口吞吐量進行預測。論文的第二章,界定了長江中游水路貨運需求的概念,分析了影響長江中游水路貨運需求的因素。論文第三章介紹了長江中游航運發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀,以及長江中游三省的產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及其未來的發(fā)展趨勢,并用線性回歸模型、指數(shù)平滑模型、ARIMA模型等計量經(jīng)濟學模型,對主要的影響因素進行了預測。論文第四章提出了先利用單項預測方法,然后利用信息熵模型確定單項預測權(quán)重,進行組合預測,最后利用馬爾科夫鏈方法進行預測值的修正這樣的預測思路。論文第五章按照預測模型和思路,運用基于信息熵的組合預測模型及馬爾科夫鏈修正,預測了長江中游煤炭、金屬礦石、建筑材料、石油及其制品幾個主要貨種的貨運量。同時,預測了武漢新港、岳陽港、九江港三個主要港口的主要貨種的吞吐量。最后根據(jù)預測結(jié)果,提出促進長江中游航運發(fā)展的建議。
[Abstract]:Inland river shipping has always played an important role in the history of world cargo transportation. China has a inland waterway transportation system consisting of more than 5600 navigable rivers with a total length of about 119000 kilometers and 200 inland ports. It is the most developed inland river transportation system in Asia, and the Yangtze River is the most important golden waterway for inland navigation in China. The main line of the Yangtze River is the most important channel for the horizontal movement of various industrial elements in the Yangtze River Basin. It is an important link in the economic development of the Yangtze River valley. The Yangtze River economic belt gathers a large number of resources, population and industries. Yangtze River shipping plays an important role in promoting the economic development and industrial distribution along the Yangtze River. With the gradual rise of the central region and the acceleration of the process of industrial gradient transfer, Provinces and cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River have speeded up their development; industrial belts, dominated by agricultural products processing, metallurgy, petrochemicals, automobiles and building materials, have been formed in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In 2011, the hinterland in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River accounted for 32 percent of the land, or 35 percent of the population, along the Yangtze River. It has completed 30% of GDP and 25% of the actual utilization of foreign capital, which occupies a very important position in the economic development of the Yangtze River basin. At present, the demand analysis of the main line of the Yangtze River is mainly focused on the whole line of the main line of the Yangtze River and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Analysis of the demand for water transportation in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is still rare. The analysis of the demand for water transportation in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River can help to better carry out the shipping planning in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, to link the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and to comprehensively develop the Yangtze River shipping. In this paper, regression model, exponential smoothing model, grey system model, combined forecasting model based on information entropy and Markov chain are used according to the different characteristics of several main cargo types and main ports in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The second chapter defines the concept of waterway freight demand in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. This paper analyzes the factors that affect the demand of waterway freight in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Chapter three introduces the present situation of shipping development in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the present situation of the industrial economy development and the future development trend of the three provinces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and uses the linear regression model. The exponential smoothing model, Arima model and other econometric models are used to predict the main influencing factors. In the fourth chapter, the method of single item prediction is proposed, and then the information entropy model is used to determine the weight of single prediction, and then the combined prediction is carried out. In the fifth chapter, according to the forecasting model and train of thought, the combined forecasting model based on information entropy and Markov chain correction are used to predict coal in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. At the same time, the throughput of the three main ports of Wuhan Xingang, Yueyang Port and Jiujiang Port is predicted. Finally, according to the forecast results, Some suggestions are put forward to promote the development of shipping in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U695.2;F552

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