本文選題：佛開高速　切入點(diǎn)：改擴(kuò)建　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文以佛開高速改擴(kuò)建為研究對象，從佛開高速所處的重要社會(huì)地位以及歷史的運(yùn)營情況著手分析分別從現(xiàn)實(shí)方面和政策方面闡明對佛開高速進(jìn)行改擴(kuò)建的必要性。然后對關(guān)鍵變量——交通量進(jìn)行預(yù)測，確定改擴(kuò)建規(guī)模，計(jì)算出工程的總造價(jià)。根據(jù)所需資金總額安排融資與資金使用，其中35%來源于資本金，65%來源于銀行借款。 本文重點(diǎn)對佛開高速改擴(kuò)建項(xiàng)目帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益進(jìn)行了評價(jià)，分別從財(cái)務(wù)角度和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)角度進(jìn)行。財(cái)務(wù)評價(jià)結(jié)果顯示，在兩種不同的基準(zhǔn)收益率下，本項(xiàng)目評價(jià)期為22年（即在高速公路擴(kuò)建后原收費(fèi)經(jīng)營期不變的情況下）的方案項(xiàng)目投資及資本金投資財(cái)務(wù)內(nèi)部收益率均小于設(shè)定的綜合貸款利率；項(xiàng)目投資及資本金投資財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值均小于0；項(xiàng)目投資及資本金投資回收期均大于22年。說明本方案有較大的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，在評價(jià)期內(nèi)可能無法收回投資。經(jīng)推算，擴(kuò)建后，在收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不考慮提高的情況下，經(jīng)營期最少要延長至2041年（即采用36年評價(jià)期），項(xiàng)目在財(cái)務(wù)上才有一定的抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力。 而國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評價(jià)結(jié)果顯示，本項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部收益率高于社會(huì)折現(xiàn)率10%；經(jīng)濟(jì)凈現(xiàn)值大于零，這表明該項(xiàng)目從國民經(jīng)濟(jì)角度衡量是可行的，國民經(jīng)濟(jì)敏感性分析得出本項(xiàng)目有一定的抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力。 簡而言之，，本項(xiàng)目從國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度是可行的，而在高速公路改擴(kuò)建后沒有收費(fèi)延期的政策條件設(shè)定下，從財(cái)務(wù)角度是不可行的。但由于本項(xiàng)目屬于國家重要的基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目，盡管財(cái)務(wù)上不可行，但政府從宏觀上考慮，仍然納入建設(shè)范圍。
[Abstract]:In this paper, Fokai high-speed reconstruction and extension as the research object, From the important social status of Fokai Expressway and the operation of history, this paper analyzes the necessity of reconstruction and extension of Fokai Expressway from the aspect of reality and policy, and forecasts the traffic volume, which is the key variable. To determine the scale of reconstruction and expansion, calculate the total cost of the project. According to the total amount of funds required to arrange financing and use of funds, 35% of which comes from the capital of 65% from bank loans. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the economic benefits brought about by the Fokai high-speed reconstruction and expansion project, respectively from the financial angle and the national economy angle. The results of the financial evaluation show that under the two different benchmark rates of return, The evaluation period of this project is 22 years (that is, under the condition that the original toll operating period of expressway extension is unchanged), the financial internal rate of return of both project investment and capital investment is less than the set comprehensive loan interest rate; The financial net present value of both project investment and capital investment is less than 0; the payback period of project investment and capital investment is more than 22 years. If the charging standard is not considered to be raised, the operating period should be extended to 2041 at least (that is, 36 years of evaluation period is adopted, the project will have a certain financial ability to resist risks. The results of the national economic evaluation show that the economic internal rate of return of the project is higher than the social discount rate of 10 and the net present value of the economy is greater than zero, which indicates that the project is feasible from the point of view of the national economy. The sensitivity analysis of the national economy shows that this project has a certain ability to resist risks. In short, this project is feasible from the point of view of the national economy, and under the policy conditions of no extension of toll after highway reconstruction and extension, It is not feasible from a financial point of view. However, because this project is an important national infrastructure project, although it is not financially feasible, it is still included in the scope of construction from the macro perspective.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F542;F282

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本文編號：1655983