本文選題：公路運(yùn)輸　切入點(diǎn)：燃油套期保值　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：C公司是一家國(guó)內(nèi)專業(yè)的公路運(yùn)輸物流服務(wù)企業(yè)，公司車輛使用的燃油主要是柴油和汽油兩種。燃油費(fèi)用占公司主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)成本的比例超過(guò)了40%。本文針對(duì)C公司受燃油價(jià)格的劇烈震蕩導(dǎo)致凈利潤(rùn)大幅波動(dòng)的問(wèn)題，運(yùn)用財(cái)務(wù)管理上預(yù)測(cè)性套期保值理論，設(shè)計(jì)了C公司燃油使用的套期保值方案并在該公司實(shí)施，對(duì)于C公司規(guī)避燃油價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在闡述C公司的概況與燃油使用情況的基礎(chǔ)上，將預(yù)測(cè)性套期保值理論和組合投資型套期保值理論相結(jié)合運(yùn)用，設(shè)計(jì)了C公司燃油使用套期保值的具體方案。首先，，結(jié)合國(guó)內(nèi)油價(jià)波動(dòng)對(duì)公司凈利潤(rùn)波動(dòng)的敏感性分析，探討了C公司規(guī)避燃油價(jià)格波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法和對(duì)燃油進(jìn)行套期保值的必要性。其次，根據(jù)C公司的特征，確定了以規(guī)避燃油價(jià)格上漲作為C公司燃油套期保值的目標(biāo)，并建立相應(yīng)的組織機(jī)構(gòu)，由該組織收集燃油價(jià)格變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)相關(guān)信息并進(jìn)行雙系統(tǒng)評(píng)估以確定合適的建倉(cāng)和平倉(cāng)時(shí)機(jī)和方向，根據(jù)C公司計(jì)劃用油量，結(jié)合隨機(jī)游走模型估算現(xiàn)貨敞口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，確定最大套期保值量與套期保值合約品種。然后，結(jié)合C公司的具體運(yùn)營(yíng)及資金情況，確定最終套期保值合約的數(shù)量，并分析了相關(guān)的套期保值風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最后，將燃油使用套期保值的具體方案在C公司實(shí)施，同時(shí)設(shè)計(jì)了相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制制度。 xO究結(jié)果表明：選取C公司這樣的中小型公路運(yùn)輸企業(yè)的燃油套期保值問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了研究，將預(yù)測(cè)性套期保值理論和組合投資型套期保值理論相結(jié)合，設(shè)計(jì)一套可操作的套期保值方案并實(shí)施，對(duì)C公司規(guī)避燃油價(jià)格上漲風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義，對(duì)于其他中小公路運(yùn)輸類企業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)燃油套期保值方案也具有一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:Company C is a domestic professional road transportation logistics service enterprises, The fuel used by the company's vehicles is mainly diesel and gasoline. Fuel costs account for more than 40 percent of the company's main operating costs. Based on the predictive hedging theory of financial management, this paper designs and implements the hedging scheme for C Company fuel, which is of practical significance for C Company to avoid the fuel price risk. On the basis of expounding the general situation of C Company and the use of fuel oil, this paper combines the predictive hedging theory with the portfolio investment hedging theory, and designs the specific scheme of C company fuel hedging. Based on the sensitivity analysis of domestic oil price fluctuation to the company's net profit fluctuation, this paper discusses the methods of avoiding the risk of fuel price fluctuation and the necessity of hedging the fuel in C Company. Secondly, according to the characteristics of C Company, To avoid the increase in fuel price as C company fuel hedging objectives, and set up the corresponding organization, The organization collects information on fuel price trends and conducts double-system assessments to determine the appropriate timing and direction for building and closing positions, and estimates spot exposure risk according to company C's planned oil consumption and combined with random walk model. Determine the maximum amount of hedging and the variety of hedging contracts. Then, according to the specific operation and capital situation of company C, determine the number of final hedging contracts, and analyze the relevant hedging risks. The specific scheme of fuel-use hedging is implemented in C company, and the corresponding risk control system is designed. The XO results show that the fuel hedging problem of small and medium-sized highway transportation enterprises such as C Company is studied, and the predictive hedging theory and the portfolio hedging theory are combined. The design and implementation of an operational hedging scheme is of practical significance for C Company to avoid the risk of fuel price increase, and it is also useful for other small and medium-sized highway transportation enterprises to design fuel hedging schemes.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F542.6

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