本文選題：城市軌道交通　切入點(diǎn)：政府和社會(huì)資本合作　出處：《天津理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)正在快速推進(jìn),同時(shí)城鎮(zhèn)化也帶來(lái)的人口密集、交通擁堵、環(huán)境污染等問(wèn)題,因而城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目得以大力推進(jìn)建設(shè),因其具有投資規(guī)模大、投資回收難度大等特性,則需要政府和社會(huì)資本合作以推動(dòng)項(xiàng)目可持續(xù)發(fā)展。但政府和社會(huì)資本之間是存在目標(biāo)沖突的,則需要政府補(bǔ)償?shù)耐度胍造柟虄烧吆献麝P(guān)系,而研究考慮到項(xiàng)目收益不確定性,通過(guò)實(shí)物期權(quán)描述項(xiàng)目收益情況,構(gòu)建在不確定性條件下投資動(dòng)態(tài)最優(yōu)化模型,通過(guò)對(duì)模型的求解和分析為政府補(bǔ)償?shù)臎Q策提供依據(jù)。首先,利用實(shí)物期權(quán)的方法進(jìn)行城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目中政府補(bǔ)償必要性分析,該部分針對(duì)不確定收益下社會(huì)資本獨(dú)自投資項(xiàng)目并還需符合項(xiàng)目的公益性質(zhì),即需要在固定的項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)期和項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)價(jià)格約束下投資項(xiàng)目的情形展開分析,依據(jù)項(xiàng)目預(yù)期收益流和成本流,再根據(jù)不確定條件下不可逆投資理論,構(gòu)建社會(huì)資本投資城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目的最優(yōu)投資決策模型,得到社會(huì)資本投資的臨界條件,再通過(guò)實(shí)例對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果表明項(xiàng)目在固定的項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)期和項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)價(jià)格的約束下達(dá)不到社會(huì)資本投資的臨界值,政府必須采用補(bǔ)償措施,即表明在城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目中政府補(bǔ)償是必要的。然后,根據(jù)政府補(bǔ)償?shù)耐度敕绞胶屯度霑r(shí)間不同,從降低社會(huì)資本投資成本(項(xiàng)目前期投資補(bǔ)償)和降低社會(huì)資本運(yùn)營(yíng)項(xiàng)目不確定性(項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營(yíng)期投入補(bǔ)償)兩種方式以及兩者組合方式分析社會(huì)資本投資項(xiàng)目的項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)值情況,以上一部分采用WACC計(jì)算出的社會(huì)資本預(yù)期收益水平、固定項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)期、固定項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)價(jià)格等為社會(huì)資本投資項(xiàng)目的基準(zhǔn)條件,構(gòu)建城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目政府補(bǔ)償方式?jīng)Q策模型,再以實(shí)例對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果表明兩種補(bǔ)償方式結(jié)合機(jī)制更符合政府和社會(huì)資本雙方利益,這一部分內(nèi)容旨在為政府確定補(bǔ)償方式提供一個(gè)判別標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和方法。最后,在投資補(bǔ)償和投入補(bǔ)償這兩種補(bǔ)償方式組合下,分析投資補(bǔ)償、投入補(bǔ)償、客流臨界值與波動(dòng)率、預(yù)期收益率之間的性質(zhì),為政府補(bǔ)償決策具體建議提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The construction of urbanization is advancing rapidly in our country. At the same time, urbanization also brings many problems, such as population density, traffic congestion, environmental pollution and so on. Therefore, the urban rail transit project can be vigorously promoted because of its large scale of investment. In order to promote the sustainable development of the project, it is necessary for the government to cooperate with the social capital to promote the sustainable development of the project. However, there is a conflict of objectives between the government and the social capital, and the government compensates the investment in order to consolidate the cooperative relationship between the two. Considering the uncertainty of the project income, the paper describes the project income through real option, constructs the investment dynamic optimization model under the uncertainty condition, and provides the basis for the government compensation decision by solving and analyzing the model. Using the real option method to analyze the necessity of government compensation in urban rail transit project, this part aims at the social capital alone investment project under uncertain income and also needs to conform to the public welfare nature of the project. That is to say, it is necessary to analyze the situation of the investment project under the fixed project operating period and the project operating price constraint, according to the expected income flow and cost flow of the project, and then according to the theory of irreversible investment under uncertain conditions. The optimal investment decision model of social capital investment in urban rail transit project is constructed, and the critical conditions of social capital investment are obtained, and the model is verified by an example. The results show that the critical value of social capital investment can not be reached due to the fixed project operating period and project operating price constraint, and the government must adopt compensatory measures, that is, government compensation is necessary in urban rail transit projects. Depending on how and when the government compensates, This paper analyzes the value of social capital investment project from two ways: reducing the cost of social capital investment (compensation for pre-project investment) and reducing uncertainty of social capital operation project (compensation for investment in project operation period), as well as the combination of the two methods. In the above part, the expected income level of social capital calculated by WACC, the operating period of fixed project and the operating price of fixed project are used as the benchmark conditions of social capital investment project, and the decision-making model of government compensation mode of urban rail transit project is constructed. An example is given to verify the model. The results show that the combination of the two compensation methods is more in the interest of both government and social capital. This part aims to provide a criterion and method for the government to determine the compensation mode. Under the combination of investment compensation and investment compensation, the paper analyzes the nature of investment compensation, investment compensation, passenger flow critical value and fluctuation rate, and expected return rate, which provides the basis for government compensation decision.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F283;F572

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