本文選題：交通運(yùn)輸與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展　切入點(diǎn)：時(shí)間序列模型　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：交通運(yùn)輸是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要基礎(chǔ)，而經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展也是交通運(yùn)輸發(fā)展的動(dòng)力和支持。當(dāng)兩者相互促進(jìn)，協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展時(shí)，才能促進(jìn)社會(huì)的發(fā)展。 本文選擇了山東省、湖南省和甘肅省作為研究對(duì)象，研究交通運(yùn)輸與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系，并從兩個(gè)方面對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系在三個(gè)省進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析，得到了有意義的結(jié)論。 首先，本文運(yùn)用協(xié)整理論與Granger因果檢驗(yàn)及Chow斷點(diǎn)檢驗(yàn)對(duì)山東省、湖南省和甘肅省交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析，結(jié)果表明交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長存在長期的均衡關(guān)系，并且大部分情況存在雙向因果關(guān)系，并依據(jù)協(xié)整方程和Granger因果關(guān)系將交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系劃分為三個(gè)階段，山東省處在第三階段，湖南省處于第二階段，甘肅省仍處于第一階段。并運(yùn)用Kolmogorov-Smirnov雙樣本檢驗(yàn)對(duì)以上階段劃分及三省各時(shí)段所處的階段的合理性進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。 然后本文選取2001~2011年的數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用了數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析對(duì)山東省、湖南省和甘肅省交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)就交通運(yùn)輸對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的適應(yīng)性而言，山東省最好，湖南省次之，甘肅省最差，就經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸?shù)闹С至Χ榷�，甘肅省最大，湖南省次之，，山東省最小。 最后，結(jié)合對(duì)三個(gè)省的研究結(jié)論，對(duì)各省的交通運(yùn)輸與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系提出對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Transportation is the important foundation of economic development, and economic development is also the motive force and support of transportation development. When the two promote each other and develop harmoniously, they can promote the development of society. This paper chooses Shandong Province, Hunan Province and Gansu Province as the research objects, studies the relationship between transportation and economic development, and makes a comparative analysis on the relationship between transportation and economic development in three provinces from two aspects. A meaningful conclusion has been drawn. Firstly, this paper analyzes the relationship between the scale of traffic infrastructure and economic growth in Shandong, Hunan and Gansu provinces by using cointegration theory, Granger causality test and Chow breakpoint test. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the scale of transportation infrastructure and economic growth, and in most cases there is a two-way causal relationship. According to the co-integration equation and Granger causality, the relationship between traffic infrastructure scale and economic growth is divided into three stages: Shandong Province is in the third stage, Hunan Province is in the second stage. Gansu Province is still in the first stage, and the rationality of the above stages is verified by Kolmogorov-Smirnov double sample test. Then this paper selects the data from 2001 to 2011 and analyzes the relationship between transportation system and economic system in Shandong, Hunan and Gansu provinces by using data envelopment analysis. It is found that the adaptability of transportation to economic development is concerned. Shandong Province is the best, Hunan Province is the second, Gansu Province is the worst. In terms of economic support for transportation, Gansu Province is the largest, Hunan Province is the second, and Shandong Province is the smallest. Finally, based on the conclusions of the three provinces, the author puts forward some suggestions on the relationship between transportation and economic development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F127;F512.7

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