本文選題：高鐵　切入點(diǎn)：民航　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：截至2016年底,中國(guó)高鐵總里程已達(dá)到2.2萬(wàn)公里,占世界總里程的60%,中國(guó)己成為世界高鐵大國(guó)。由于高鐵與民航的客運(yùn)產(chǎn)品有高度的一致性,高鐵的出現(xiàn)對(duì)民航在高速客運(yùn)市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)地位構(gòu)成了挑戰(zhàn)。在交通運(yùn)輸部"大部制"以及大力發(fā)展"綜合交通"的政策背景下,迫切需要對(duì)高鐵和民航客運(yùn)市場(chǎng)的供需關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究,并且以系統(tǒng)的角度對(duì)二者的發(fā)展進(jìn)行統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃。鑒于此,本文對(duì)影響高鐵和民航客運(yùn)市場(chǎng)需求和供給的因素進(jìn)行了定量分析,并計(jì)算了供需均衡時(shí)的票價(jià)。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容及結(jié)論如下:(1)需求影響方面:通過對(duì)京滬線高鐵與民航旅客進(jìn)行SP和RP調(diào)查,分析京滬線客流構(gòu)成和旅客出行方式選擇行為特征,并基于非集計(jì)理論,構(gòu)建京滬線旅客出行選擇的Binary Logit模型,量化各因素對(duì)旅客選擇的影響程度,并對(duì)比了商務(wù)出行旅客和休閑出行旅客的出行選擇差異。研究結(jié)果顯示:女性更偏好民航出行;旅客對(duì)民航的偏好隨著收入的增加、準(zhǔn)點(diǎn)率的提升、年齡的降低、同行人數(shù)的減少和程前時(shí)間的減少而增加;旅客的出行選擇隨著出發(fā)時(shí)間的變化而發(fā)生較大的變化。(2)供給影響方面:基于2016年3月22日至2016年7月28日的30條國(guó)內(nèi)不同距離航線出發(fā)前30天至前1天的130余萬(wàn)條客票信息,構(gòu)建4個(gè)計(jì)量回歸模型,采用隨機(jī)效應(yīng)最小二乘法以及隨機(jī)效應(yīng)兩階段最小二乘法,計(jì)算高鐵與民航的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)民航票價(jià)和運(yùn)營(yíng)頻率的影響程度。根據(jù)測(cè)度,發(fā)現(xiàn)運(yùn)營(yíng)頻率模型中因變量民航運(yùn)營(yíng)頻率與自變量高鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)頻率之間存在內(nèi)生性,通過引入工具變量"高鐵線路運(yùn)營(yíng)年數(shù)"與"高鐵線路中途停站數(shù)"解決了該問題。研究結(jié)果顯示:在控制了跨期價(jià)格歧視、航線特征等其他影響因素后,高鐵的運(yùn)營(yíng)可引起競(jìng)爭(zhēng)航線民航票價(jià)平均降低42.9%,平均每日航班數(shù)減少60.2%;運(yùn)營(yíng)頻率和總旅途時(shí)間是決定運(yùn)輸方式競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的重要因素;高鐵的運(yùn)營(yíng)會(huì)改變民航票價(jià)在距離上的分布,并影響民航票價(jià)的跨期價(jià)格歧視;高鐵線路運(yùn)營(yíng)年數(shù)和中途停站數(shù)的增多會(huì)使該線路高鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)頻率增加。(3)均衡定價(jià)方面:根據(jù)對(duì)高速客運(yùn)通道內(nèi)運(yùn)行機(jī)理的分析,構(gòu)建以票價(jià)為決策變量的雙層規(guī)劃博弈模型。上層模型為以客票價(jià)格作為決策變量的高鐵與民航運(yùn)營(yíng)商之間的完全信息動(dòng)態(tài)博弈,下層模型保證用戶廣義出行費(fèi)用最小,將上、下層之間的博弈看作Stackelberg博弈,設(shè)計(jì)基于靈敏度分析的啟發(fā)式算法對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行求解,并以京滬線的供需數(shù)據(jù)為算例驗(yàn)證了該模型和算法的有效性。該方法為決策部門進(jìn)行高鐵與民航的整體規(guī)劃提供了參考。
[Abstract]:By end of 2016, the total mileage of high-speed rail in China had reached 22,000 kilometers, accounting for 60 percent of the world's total mileage. The emergence of high-speed rail poses a challenge to the dominant position of civil aviation in the high-speed passenger transport market. There is an urgent need to study the relationship between supply and demand in the high-speed rail and civil aviation passenger transport markets, and to plan their development from a systematic perspective. In this paper, the factors influencing the demand and supply of high-speed rail and civil aviation passenger transport market are analyzed quantitatively. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: through the SP and RP investigation of high-speed railway and civil aviation passengers on the Beijing-Shanghai line, this paper analyzes the composition of passenger flow and the behavior characteristics of passenger travel mode selection. Based on the theory of disaggregate, the Binary Logit model of passenger travel choice on Beijing-Shanghai line is constructed to quantify the influence of various factors on passenger choice. The results show that: women prefer to travel by civil aviation; the preference of passengers to civil aviation increases with the increase of income, the increase of punctuality, and the decrease of age. The number of peers decreases and Cheng Qian time decreases and increases; The travel choice of passengers changes greatly with the departure time.) the supply impact is as follows: based on the information of more than 1.3 million tickets from 30 domestic routes with different distances from March 22nd 2016 to July 28th 2016, 30 days before departure and one day before departure, Four econometric regression models are constructed, and the stochastic effect least square method and the stochastic effect two-stage least square method are used to calculate the influence of the competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation on civil aviation fare and operation frequency. It is found that there is an endogenous relationship between the dependent variable civil aviation operating frequency and the independent variable high-speed rail operating frequency in the operational frequency model. This problem is solved by introducing the tool variables "the number of years of high-speed line operation" and "the number of stoppages of high-speed railway line". The results show that after controlling the inter-period price discrimination, route characteristics and other influencing factors, The operation of high-speed rail can lead to an average reduction of 42.9 airline fares and a 60.2 reduction in the average number of daily flights on competitive routes; the frequency of operation and the total travel time are important factors determining the competitiveness of transport modes; and the operation of high-speed trains will change the distribution of civil aviation fares in distance. It also affects the inter-period price discrimination of civil aviation fares. The increase of the number of years of high-speed rail line operation and the number of stoppages will increase the operating frequency of high-speed rail line .Y3) equilibrium pricing: according to the analysis of the operating mechanism of high-speed passenger transport channel, A bilevel programming game model with ticket price as decision variable is constructed. The upper level model is a dynamic game of complete information between high-speed rail and civil aviation operators, which takes ticket price as decision variable. The game between the lower layers is regarded as Stackelberg game. A heuristic algorithm based on sensitivity analysis is designed to solve the model. The validity of the model and algorithm is verified by taking the supply and demand data of Beijing-Shanghai line as an example, which provides a reference for the decision-making department to plan the whole of high-speed rail and civil aviation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F532;F562

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