本文關(guān)鍵詞：公路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施PPP項(xiàng)目交通量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)策略研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

公路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施PPP項(xiàng)目交通量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)策略研究

Research on. Traffic Risk Sharing Strategy for Public-Private-Partnerships Highway Infrastructure Projects

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Guo Jian （School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081 ）

中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)管理科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院,北京100081

文章摘要：政府和私人合作模式（PPP模式）近年來在我國公路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)領(lǐng)域得到廣泛的應(yīng)用．然而由于交通需求量的高度不確定性，公路PPP項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)問題一直是學(xué)術(shù)界的熱點(diǎn)和難點(diǎn)問題。本文采用實(shí)物期權(quán)方法研究不確定條件下延遲投資決策對(duì)公路PPP項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)值的影響，進(jìn)而分析基于政府雙邊保證的交通量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)策略。政府和非政府投資主體在特許協(xié)議中規(guī)定雙邊收益保證條款，確定政府擔(dān)保的項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營收益上限和下限，以分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，政府擔(dān)�？梢钥醋魇且幌盗袣W式看跌期權(quán)和看漲期權(quán)的組合，運(yùn)用Black-Scholes期權(quán)定價(jià)公式計(jì)算政府擔(dān)保價(jià)值。最后將該延遲投資決策和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)策略應(yīng)用于某高速公路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行案例分析。

Abstr：The model of public-private partnerships has been widely used in the field of highway infrastructure project in China in recent years. However, due to the high uncertainty of traffic demand risk, risk-sharing issue for the highway infrastructure project has been a focus of attention and a difficulty to be solved. Binomial tree pricing model can be used to analyze the impact of delayed investment to the value of PPP project and we study the effective way to mitigate the traffic risks using the government minimum and maximum guarantee based on real options. A series of contracts may be signed between government and private investors to ensure the revenues that the private investors obtain. Government guarantees can be seen as a series of European put and call option combinations and Black-Scholes option pricing fol~nula can be used to calculate the option value in the PPP contracts. Finally, the delayed investment decision-making and risk-sharing strategy is applied to a highway infrastructure project to illustrate the method above.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:public-private partnerships, traffic risk, delay option, government revenue guarantee, risk sharing

課題項(xiàng)目：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目（09YJC630239）;中財(cái)121人才工程青年博士發(fā)展基金項(xiàng)目（QBJGL201007）.

作者信息：會(huì)員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：公路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施PPP項(xiàng)目交通量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)策略研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。