本文關(guān)鍵詞：天津港東疆自貿(mào)港區(qū)吞吐量預(yù)測(cè)分析　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 自由貿(mào)易區(qū) 集裝箱吞吐量 運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng) 模擬植物生長(zhǎng)算法

【摘要】：2006年8月31日,國(guó)務(wù)院正式批復(fù)設(shè)立天津東疆保稅港區(qū),推動(dòng)天津?yàn)I海新區(qū)的開(kāi)發(fā)開(kāi)放。2015年4月21日天津自貿(mào)實(shí)驗(yàn)區(qū)正式掛牌成立,依托于天津港、毗鄰濱海新區(qū),作為天津自貿(mào)區(qū)最重要發(fā)展核心之一的東疆自由貿(mào)易港區(qū)將會(huì)是未來(lái)整個(gè)自貿(mào)區(qū)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重中之重。自由貿(mào)易港區(qū)是一種特殊的港口或者港區(qū)的概念,通過(guò)利用減免關(guān)稅和自由出入這些優(yōu)惠待遇性質(zhì)的手段,從而達(dá)到推動(dòng)該區(qū)域以及帶動(dòng)周邊區(qū)域高速發(fā)展的目的。自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和自由貿(mào)易港區(qū),都可以享有免征關(guān)稅等優(yōu)惠待遇并且不受主權(quán)國(guó)海關(guān)監(jiān)督。各種優(yōu)惠政策會(huì)使自由貿(mào)易港區(qū)的吞吐量增長(zhǎng)的更加迅速,港口運(yùn)輸壓力也相應(yīng)提高。選對(duì)方法,并對(duì)在自貿(mào)區(qū)設(shè)立后的港區(qū)貨物吞吐量進(jìn)行合理預(yù)測(cè),對(duì)港區(qū)未來(lái)發(fā)展方向、現(xiàn)有吞吐能力優(yōu)化以及完善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)都具有重要的意義。本文首先介紹了自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和自由貿(mào)易港區(qū)的基本概念,分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外自由貿(mào)易港區(qū)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。對(duì)東疆港區(qū)吞吐裝卸及運(yùn)輸能力進(jìn)行了分析,充分了解了目前東疆港區(qū)現(xiàn)狀。隨后搜集了大量相關(guān)資料,其中包括企業(yè)生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃表及近十年的集裝箱吞吐量,利用模擬植物生長(zhǎng)法對(duì)未來(lái)5年的集裝箱吞吐量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),再利用上海自由貿(mào)易港區(qū)集裝箱吞吐量的變化來(lái)指導(dǎo)和計(jì)算天津在成立自由貿(mào)易區(qū)后東疆港區(qū)集裝箱的吞吐量。接著,根據(jù)東疆港區(qū)每年集裝箱吞吐量在全港集裝箱吞吐量中所占比例,得出自貿(mào)區(qū)設(shè)立后東疆港區(qū)的吞吐量預(yù)測(cè)值。通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)的對(duì)比和分析,可知東疆港區(qū)現(xiàn)有的吞吐能力不能很好的滿(mǎn)足日益增長(zhǎng)的集裝箱吞吐量,需要在發(fā)展過(guò)程中不斷完善和提高。最后,針對(duì)東疆港區(qū)的功能定位、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、未來(lái)發(fā)展方向和可能出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題,以及吞吐量的不斷提高為港區(qū)建設(shè)帶來(lái)的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn),提出了一些發(fā)展建議,例如增加公路延長(zhǎng)線(xiàn)、拓建新型現(xiàn)代化泊位,采取甩掛運(yùn)輸運(yùn)送集裝箱等,并對(duì)進(jìn)一步的研究進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:In August 31, 2006, the State Council officially approved the establishment of Tianjin Dongjiang Bonded Port Area, promoting the development and opening of Tianjin Binhai New area. April 21, 2015 Tianjin FTA experimentation area was formally established, relying on the port of Tianjin, adjacent to the Binhai New Area, Tianjin free trade area as the core of one of the most important development of Dongjiang Free Trade Zone will be the priority among priorities of the future development of FTA strategy. Free trade port area is a special concept of port or port area. By utilizing the means of tariff reduction and free entry and entry of these preferential treatment, we can achieve the goal of driving the region and promoting the rapid development of the surrounding area. Free trade zones and free trade ports all enjoy preferential treatment such as exemption from customs duties and are not subject to the supervision of the customs of the sovereign state. A variety of preferential policies will increase the throughput of the free trade port, and the port transport pressure will increase accordingly. Selecting the right way and reasonably predicting the cargo throughput in the port area after the establishment of the free trade area is of great significance for the future development direction of the port area, the optimization of the existing throughput capacity and the improvement of infrastructure construction. This paper first introduces the basic concepts of free trade area and free trade port, and analyzes the development status of free trade port at home and abroad. The Dongjiang port throughput handling and transportation capacity are analyzed, and fully understand the current situation of Dongjiang port. Then we collect a lot of data, including production schedule and container throughput of nearly ten years, the container throughput in the next 5 years were predicted by using plant growth simulation method, the changes of the free trade port of Shanghai container throughput to guide and calculation of Tianjin in the establishment of free trade zone Dongjiang port container throughput. Then, according to the proportion of the annual container throughput of Dongjiang port in the population of container throughput, the establishment of a free trade zone after Dongjiang port throughput prediction. Through the comparison and analysis of data, the existing container throughput of Dongjiang port throughput capacity can not meet the growing needs, and continuously improve in the development process. Finally, according to the function, Dongjiang port infrastructure construction, the future development direction and possible problems, and constantly improve the throughput of the opportunities and challenges for the port construction, puts forward some development suggestions, such as increasing road extension, extension of the building of new berths, container transport to transport, and the a prospect of further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F552.7

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本文編號(hào)：1338573