本文關(guān)鍵詞：城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中的糧食安全問(wèn)題研究　出處：《河南工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：近年來(lái)，雖然我國(guó)糧食產(chǎn)量實(shí)現(xiàn)連續(xù)“十年增”，但是糧食進(jìn)口量逐年大幅增加，糧食自給率持續(xù)下滑，安全形勢(shì)不容樂(lè)觀。當(dāng)前，我國(guó)正處于城鎮(zhèn)化加速發(fā)展時(shí)期，城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提高會(huì)對(duì)糧食生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)需求產(chǎn)生重要影響，導(dǎo)致我國(guó)糧食安全形勢(shì)出現(xiàn)新的變化。 本文以區(qū)域發(fā)展理論和城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展理論，以及糧食安全問(wèn)題理論為基礎(chǔ)，闡述了我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和目標(biāo)，以及我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)、進(jìn)口等關(guān)系糧食安全的因素，分析了城鎮(zhèn)化帶來(lái)的糧食供需問(wèn)題，城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展中的耕地變化對(duì)糧食安全的影響等。然后，結(jié)合之前的分析，做了中長(zhǎng)期城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展趨勢(shì)和糧食安全發(fā)展趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)，重點(diǎn)研究了城鎮(zhèn)化與糧食安全的關(guān)系，通過(guò)邏輯關(guān)系分析找出了影響二者發(fā)展的核心因素耕地和人口，建立了邏輯關(guān)系表達(dá)式，并進(jìn)一步分析了城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地、人口的數(shù)量關(guān)系，建立了多元回歸分析模型，對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化與糧食安全的關(guān)系做了較為科學(xué)、全面的表述。研究結(jié)果表明，，一是中長(zhǎng)期我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化率呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)上升趨勢(shì)，我國(guó)糧食產(chǎn)量有較大增產(chǎn)潛力，年均增長(zhǎng)率可能維持在1.1%左右，同時(shí)糧食需求也將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，但是糧食供需整體處于相對(duì)寬松格局。二是城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對(duì)糧食總產(chǎn)量形成威脅，但是如果能夠控制好耕地面積和人口轉(zhuǎn)移數(shù)量變化，則二者可以實(shí)現(xiàn)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。三是在研究耕地變化與糧食生產(chǎn)的關(guān)系中發(fā)現(xiàn)，必須堅(jiān)守耕地紅線和糧食生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先，才能確保糧食產(chǎn)量持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)應(yīng)該注重耕地質(zhì)量的提升。 最后，根據(jù)2013年中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議將糧食安全列入國(guó)家首要戰(zhàn)略任務(wù)的要求和國(guó)家新型城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)劃（2014-2020年）的指示，提出新時(shí)期確保我國(guó)糧食安全的的具體對(duì)策，其一應(yīng)該推進(jìn)新型城鎮(zhèn)化持續(xù)和健康發(fā)展，理順城鎮(zhèn)化中土地市場(chǎng)和人口轉(zhuǎn)移的次序，為確保糧食安全奠定基礎(chǔ)；其二需要切實(shí)保護(hù)耕地資源，提升耕地質(zhì)量水平，為糧食持續(xù)增產(chǎn)提供資源保證；其三是適當(dāng)利用國(guó)際市場(chǎng)調(diào)劑余缺，滿足國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)供需趨于平衡；其四是重視科學(xué)技術(shù)在提升糧食產(chǎn)量中的作用，完善科技支農(nóng)惠農(nóng)服務(wù)體系；其五是科學(xué)配置糧食加工業(yè)的資本結(jié)構(gòu)；其六是合理調(diào)整糧食生產(chǎn)扶持政策，提高農(nóng)民的生產(chǎn)積極性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, although China's grain production has been "increased for ten consecutive years", the amount of grain imports has increased significantly year by year, the self-sufficiency rate of grain has continued to decline, and the security situation is not optimistic. China is in an accelerating period of urbanization. The improvement of urbanization level will have an important impact on the food production and consumption demand, leading to new changes in the situation of food security in China. Based on regional development theory, urbanization development theory and food security theory, this paper expounds the present situation and goal of urbanization in China, as well as grain production and consumption in China. Import and other factors related to food security, analyzed the problem of grain supply and demand brought by urbanization, the change of cultivated land in the development of urbanization, and so on. Then, combined with the previous analysis. The long-term trend of urbanization and food security development trend forecast, focus on the relationship between urbanization and food security, through the logical relationship analysis to find out the core factors affecting the development of arable land and population. The expression of logical relation is established, and the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land and population is further analyzed. The multivariate regression model is established, and the relationship between urbanization and food security is made more scientific. The research results show that, first, the urbanization rate in the medium and long term in China shows a continuous upward trend, and the grain yield in China has a great potential to increase production, and the average annual growth rate may be maintained at about 1.1%. At the same time, grain demand will continue to grow, but the overall grain supply and demand is in a relatively loose pattern. Second, urbanization is a threat to total grain output. But if we can control the change of cultivated land area and the quantity of population transfer, they can achieve coordinated development. Third, we find out in the study of the relationship between cultivated land change and grain production. We must stick to the red line of cultivated land and give priority to grain production in order to ensure a sustained increase in grain production and at the same time we should pay attention to the improvement of cultivated land quality. Finally, in accordance with the requirements of the 2013 Central Economic work Conference to place food security in the country's top strategic task and the directive of the National New urbanization Plan 2014-2020). The concrete countermeasures to ensure the food security in China in the new period are put forward. Firstly, the sustainable and healthy development of new urbanization should be promoted, and the order of land market and population transfer in urbanization should be straightened out so as to lay a foundation for ensuring food security. Secondly, it is necessary to protect cultivated land resources, improve the quality of cultivated land, and provide resources guarantee for the sustainable increase of grain production. The third is to make proper use of the international market to adjust the balance between supply and demand in the domestic market; The fourth is to attach importance to the role of science and technology in improving grain production, and to improve the service system of supporting agriculture and benefiting agriculture by science and technology; Fifthly, the capital structure of grain processing industry should be allocated scientifically; Its sixth is reasonable adjustment grain production supports the policy, enhances the farmer's production enthusiasm.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.21;F326.11

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