【摘要】：生存分析(survival analysis)適用于事件持續(xù)時間及其影響因素的研究.本文以二手房議價持時為研究對象,采用實驗經濟學方法設計了二手房交易實驗,收集二手房交易的微觀數(shù)據,使用生存分析方法建立Weibull模型和Cox模型進行實證分析,研究了二手房議價持時的影響因素,得出研究結論并提出了降低二手房議價持時的合理建議.研究表明:二手房議價持時與賣方經驗、中介經驗、價格偏離度、賣方積極度和時間壓力成反比,與買方經驗成正比,與買方積極度和成交價格無顯著關系.本文的創(chuàng)新點在于使用實驗經濟學方法收集數(shù)據,提高了數(shù)據的準確度和針對性,同時引入生存分析方法,為二手房議價持時研究提供了新方法與研究視角.
文內圖片：
圖片說明：Weibull分布的風險函數(shù)}a=1)
[Abstract]:Survival analysis (survival analysis) is suitable for the study of event duration and its influencing factors. This paper takes the bargaining time of second-hand housing as the research object, designs the experiment of second-hand housing transaction by means of experimental economics, collects the microscopic data of second-hand housing transaction, establishes Weibull model and Cox model for empirical analysis by using survival analysis method, studies the influencing factors of second-hand housing bargaining time, draws the research conclusion and puts forward some reasonable suggestions for reducing the bargaining time of second-hand housing. The results show that the bargaining time of second-hand house is inversely proportional to seller's experience, intermediary experience, price deviation degree, seller's product and time pressure, and directly proportional to buyer's experience, but has no significant relationship with buyer's experience and transaction price. The innovation of this paper is that the experimental economics method is used to collect the data, which improves the accuracy and pertinence of the data. At the same time, the survival analysis method is introduced, which provides a new method and research perspective for the study of second-hand housing bargaining time.
【作者單位】： 清華大學恒隆房地產研究中心;清華大學城鎮(zhèn)化與產業(yè)發(fā)展研究中心;清華大學五道口金融學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金(71373143)~~
【分類號】：F299.23

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