【摘要】：已有的研究表明,能源消費回彈效應(yīng)普遍存在,并對能源消費總量產(chǎn)生了重大影響。改革開放以來,陜西省的單位GDP能耗在技術(shù)進步的作用下總體呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,但能源消費總量卻沒有隨之下降,反而在快速增長。因此,在目前我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)型、資源瓶頸約束趨緊的背景下,研究能源消費回彈效應(yīng),進而優(yōu)化能源消費總量,對于促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)型、突破資源瓶頸約束具有重大現(xiàn)實意義。本文首先梳理了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于能源消費回彈效應(yīng)理論的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和研究成果,從直接回彈效應(yīng),間接回彈效應(yīng)和經(jīng)濟層面回彈效應(yīng)三個方面解釋和說明了技術(shù)進步引起的能源消費回彈效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生原因和作用機制。接著對陜西省1995-2013年能源消費總量和技術(shù)進步變動情況進行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)陜西省存在著明顯的能源消費回彈效應(yīng)。隨后構(gòu)建了測算能源消費回彈效應(yīng)的模型,測算技術(shù)進步的外生增長模型,對陜西省1995-2013年的全要素生產(chǎn)率進行測算,進而得出技術(shù)進步對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率,并對全要素生產(chǎn)率和技術(shù)進步對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率的變動情況進行分析。最后,根據(jù)技術(shù)進步對經(jīng)濟增長貢獻率的測算結(jié)果,對陜西省1995-2013年的能源消費回彈效應(yīng)進行測算,并對其變動情況進行分析。結(jié)果表明陜西省能源消費回彈效應(yīng)的趨勢是在高位波動,均值達到79.17%。這說明陜西省技術(shù)進步帶來的能源消費減少量在很大程度上被技術(shù)進步帶來的能源消費增加量所抵消,想要單純依靠技術(shù)進步達到控制能源消費總量的思路效果并不顯著。因此,要優(yōu)化能源消費總量,促進經(jīng)濟社會環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,就必須重視能源消費回彈效應(yīng)的重要影響,按照以市場化為主導的方向進行調(diào)整,弱化能源消費回彈效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Previous studies have shown that springback effect of energy consumption is widespread and has a significant impact on total energy consumption. Since the reform and opening up, the energy consumption per unit GDP in Shaanxi Province has shown a downward trend under the action of technological progress, but the total energy consumption has not decreased with it, but has been increasing rapidly. Therefore, under the background of the transformation of economic development mode and the tightening of resource bottleneck, the springback effect of energy consumption is studied and the total energy consumption is optimized, which will promote the transformation of economic development mode. It is of great practical significance to break through the bottleneck constraints of resources. Firstly, this paper reviews the current situation and research results of rebound effect theory of energy consumption at home and abroad, starting with direct springback effect. Indirect springback effect and economic springback effect explain and explain the reason and mechanism of energy consumption rebound effect caused by technological progress. Then, the change of total energy consumption and technological progress in Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013 is analyzed, and it is found that there is a rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province. Then, the paper constructs a model to measure the rebound effect of energy consumption, an exogenous growth model of technological progress, calculates the total factor productivity of Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013, and then obtains the contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth. The change of the contribution rate of total factor productivity and technological progress to economic growth is analyzed. Finally, according to the result of the contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth, the rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013 is calculated, and the change of energy consumption is analyzed. The results show that the trend of rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province is high, the mean value is 79.17. This shows that the decrease of energy consumption brought about by technological progress in Shaanxi Province is largely offset by the increase in energy consumption brought by technological progress, and the effect of controlling the total amount of energy consumption by relying solely on technological progress is not remarkable. Therefore, in order to optimize the total amount of energy consumption and promote the coordinated development of economic and social environment, we must pay attention to the important influence of rebound effect of energy consumption, adjust it according to the direction of marketization, and weaken the rebound effect of energy consumption.
【學位授予單位】：西安石油大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F206

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