本文選題：關(guān)中城市群 + 城市建設(shè)用地規(guī)模預(yù)測　； 參考：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：關(guān)中城市群經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會的快速發(fā)展將促使大量非建設(shè)用地轉(zhuǎn)為城市建設(shè)用地。在滿足其經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會發(fā)展需求的前提下,如何對其城市建設(shè)用地進(jìn)行合理管控是當(dāng)務(wù)之急。解決該問題的有效辦法是對其城市建設(shè)用地規(guī)模進(jìn)行合理預(yù)測。本文在相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上對關(guān)中城市群城市建設(shè)用地做了系統(tǒng)研究。首先,本文在關(guān)中城市群與發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀分析的基礎(chǔ)上,從總量和結(jié)構(gòu)變化兩個方面對其城市建設(shè)用地利用現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行全面分析,得出其城市建設(shè)用地規(guī)模增長較快、結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生變化等結(jié)論。其次,通過深入研究國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn),結(jié)合關(guān)中城市群實(shí)際情況,構(gòu)建了關(guān)中城市群城市建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)張驅(qū)動因素指標(biāo)體系;分別從整體和分類的視角對其城市建設(shè)用地規(guī)模變化影響因素的驅(qū)動機(jī)制進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析,得知不同類型城市建設(shè)用地的驅(qū)動因素影響機(jī)制存在差異。再次,運(yùn)用時間序列分析法對2016-2020年驅(qū)動因素的數(shù)值進(jìn)行預(yù)測;構(gòu)建BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對2016-2020年其各類城市建設(shè)用地面積進(jìn)行預(yù)測,整理得出關(guān)中城市群城市建設(shè)用地面積。最后,基于研究結(jié)果,為提高城市建設(shè)用地利用合理性和集約利用效率提出相關(guān)政策建議。本文分類對城市建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)張驅(qū)動因素進(jìn)行分析和規(guī)模預(yù)測的研究思路以及相關(guān)研究成果對城市建設(shè)用地相關(guān)問題的研究具有一定理論意義和借鑒價值,而且對關(guān)中城市群城市規(guī)劃和土地合理利用具有一定的實(shí)際參考意義。
[Abstract]:The rapid economic and social development of Guanzhong urban agglomeration will promote a large number of non-construction land to urban construction land. On the premise of meeting the needs of economic and social development, it is urgent to control the urban construction land reasonably. The effective way to solve this problem is to forecast the scale of urban construction land reasonably. Based on the relevant literature and theoretical research, this paper makes a systematic study on the urban construction land of Guanzhong urban agglomeration. First of all, based on the analysis of Guanzhong urban agglomeration and the present situation of development, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the present situation of urban construction land use from the aspects of total amount and structural change, and draws a conclusion that the scale of urban construction land increases rapidly. Conclusions such as structural changes. Secondly, through the in-depth study of domestic and foreign literature, combined with the actual situation of Guanzhong urban agglomeration, the index system of driving factors of urban construction land expansion in Guanzhong urban agglomeration is constructed. The driving mechanism of the influencing factors of the scale of urban construction land is analyzed systematically from the perspective of whole and classification, and it is found that there are differences in the driving factors of different types of urban construction land. Thirdly, use time series analysis method to predict the driving factors of 2016-2020; construct BP neural network model to forecast the area of urban construction land in 2016-2020, and get the urban construction land area of Guanzhong urban agglomeration. Finally, based on the research results, some policy suggestions are put forward to improve the rationality of urban construction land use and the efficiency of intensive use. This paper analyzes the driving factors of urban construction land expansion and forecasts the scale of urban construction land, and the related research results have a certain theoretical significance and reference value for the study of urban construction land related problems. Moreover, it has certain practical reference significance for the urban planning and rational land use of Guanzhong urban agglomeration.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.23
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本文編號：1934846