本文選題：養(yǎng)老設施 + 老年社區(qū)��； 參考：《天津大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，中國的人口老齡化問題已成為全社會關注的焦點。一方面我國的經濟快速發(fā)展，對和諧穩(wěn)定的社會環(huán)境提出了更高的要求；另一方面，我國養(yǎng)老服務的發(fā)展卻跟不上人口老齡化的腳步。養(yǎng)老服務體系不完善、養(yǎng)老設施發(fā)展慢、養(yǎng)老機制欠缺等問題的存在嚴重地影響著社會的和諧穩(wěn)定，制約著我國經濟社會的進一步發(fā)展。目前天津市人口老齡化程度在全國各大城市中位列第三，緊跟上海、北京之后。而天津的養(yǎng)老設施卻完全不能滿足社會需求。開發(fā)針對老年人特點的老年社區(qū)，滿足老年人在養(yǎng)老方面更多的要求，成為天津養(yǎng)老產業(yè)發(fā)展的必然要求。 本論文所研究的靜�？h老年社區(qū)項目將建設成為集養(yǎng)老、醫(yī)療、護理等于一體的示范養(yǎng)老宜居社區(qū)。該項目不僅能夠滿足老年人的居住要求，而且具有各類的養(yǎng)老養(yǎng)生功能，能夠滿足現在老人對于生活質量、生活環(huán)境、文化需求、醫(yī)療護理等多方位的要求。 本論文應用項目評價的基本理論與方法，分析了靜�？h老年社區(qū)項目建設的必要性與可行性，并從財務評價、社會評價及風險評價方面對其進行了評價。從財務評價角度分析該項目盈利能力、清償能力和財務生存能力等方面，得出該項目具有財務可行性；從社會影響、社會適應性以及社會風險三方面對該項目的社會影響進行了評價；應用蒙特卡洛模擬，對該項目的風險進行了分析評價并提出了相應的風險防范措施。 本論文所研究的老年社區(qū)填補了天津市中高端養(yǎng)老地產方面的空白，能夠為天津市的養(yǎng)老地產提供新的模式，，加以復制及推廣能夠為今后天津養(yǎng)老產業(yè)的發(fā)展注入新的活力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's aging population has become the focus of attention throughout the society. On the one hand, the rapid economic development of our country puts forward higher requirements for a harmonious and stable social environment; on the other hand, the development of pension services in China can not keep up with the pace of aging population. The problems such as imperfect old-age service system, slow development of old-age facilities and lack of pension mechanism seriously affect the social harmony and stability, and restrict the further development of our country's economy and society. Tianjin is now the third largest city in China, after Shanghai and Beijing. Tianjin's pension facilities are completely unable to meet social needs. It is an inevitable requirement for the development of the old-age industry in Tianjin to develop the elderly community with the characteristics of the elderly and to meet more requirements of the elderly in the field of old-age care. In this paper, the project of the elderly community in Jinghai County will be built into a model community of old-age care, medical care and nursing. The project can not only meet the living requirements of the elderly, but also has the function of various old-age health care, and can meet the needs of the elderly in many aspects, such as quality of life, living environment, cultural needs, medical care and so on. Based on the basic theory and method of project evaluation, this paper analyzes the necessity and feasibility of the construction of the elderly community project in Jinghai County, and evaluates it from the aspects of financial evaluation, social evaluation and risk evaluation. From the angle of financial evaluation, the paper analyzes the profitability, liquidating ability and financial viability of the project, and draws the conclusion that the project has financial feasibility; The social impact of the project is evaluated from the aspects of social adaptability and social risk, and the risk of the project is analyzed and evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation, and the corresponding risk prevention measures are put forward. The elderly community studied in this paper has filled up the gap of the middle-high old-age real estate in Tianjin, which can provide a new model for the old-age real estate in Tianjin, and replicate and popularize it can inject new vitality for the future development of the old-age industry in Tianjin.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：D669.6;F719

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