市場比較法的灰色模糊建模及其應(yīng)用
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-13 15:15
【摘要】：自1995年1月1日起施行的《中華人民共和國城市房地產(chǎn)管理法》第33條規(guī)定：“國家實行房地產(chǎn)價格評估制度”。房地產(chǎn)估價必須要科學、合理,以有助于建立合理的房地產(chǎn)市場秩序,促進房地產(chǎn)的公平交易,將房地產(chǎn)價格導向正常化。而后,隨著1998年7月3日,國務(wù)院頒布《國務(wù)院關(guān)于進一步深化城鎮(zhèn)住房制度改革,加快住房建設(shè)的通知》以來,我國住宅市場實現(xiàn)了由租到售的跨越,住宅市場的建設(shè)也引起了全社會的廣泛關(guān)注,并逐漸成為國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。然目前房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展尚不成熟,房地產(chǎn)作為商品,其品質(zhì)各不相同和復雜的特性決定了房地產(chǎn)市場是“不完全市場”,且市場信息不對稱,不會自動地形成常人容易識別的適當價格,有許多阻礙房地產(chǎn)價格合理形成的因素,在其判斷中要求有專門的知識和經(jīng)驗�，F(xiàn)階段,相對于成本法和收益法,市場比較法是更加直接地依賴于市場的現(xiàn)實資料,所以,相對于上面兩種方法,人們對市場比較法更加容易理解與依賴。這就導致了市場比較法作為最重要、最常用的評估方法之一,其往往在房地產(chǎn)估價的實務(wù)中被專業(yè)估價人員首先選用。 本論文首先從市場比較法入手,通過對市場比較法的分析,理解其評估房地產(chǎn)價格的基本原理,總結(jié)市場比較法的優(yōu)點與不足。然后根據(jù)其評估方法的不足,通過理論研究與分析,找到一種能夠?qū)⑹袌龇ǜ啽闱乙粤炕男问綄Ψ康禺a(chǎn)進行估價的方法。即提出了市場比較法的灰色模糊建模方法：首先利用灰色系統(tǒng)理論中灰關(guān)聯(lián)度分析理論對影響房地產(chǎn)價格的主要因素進行篩選；其次通過模糊數(shù)學理論中的能夠度量兩模糊集之間接近程度的貼近度原理來選擇與待估房地產(chǎn)最為相近的可比實例；然后結(jié)合灰系統(tǒng)論中GM(1,1)預(yù)測模型對市場比較法涉及的交易時間進行調(diào)整；最后借助于GM(1,N)模型來建立房地產(chǎn)價格與影響房地產(chǎn)價格的各因子之間的狀態(tài)關(guān)系,分析影響因素與價格之間的影響規(guī)律,根據(jù)己獲取的待估房地產(chǎn)影響因素評估出待估房地產(chǎn)的價格。通過以上理論建模的分析,最后進行了實證分析驗證：求取云南省昆明市的某一宗房地產(chǎn)價格的案例。該案例按照以上建模理論逐步求取,得出的可比實例的估價值與實際交易值的誤差很小甚至為零。從而得出結(jié)論：市場比較法的灰色模糊建模不僅在理論上可行,而且在實踐中可操作。
[Abstract]:Article 33 of the Law of the people's Republic of China on Urban Real Estate Management, which came into effect on January 1, 1995, stipulates: "the State implements the system of real estate price evaluation." Real estate valuation must be scientific and reasonable in order to help establish a reasonable order of real estate market promote the fair transaction of real estate and normalize the real estate price. Then, with the promulgation of the notice of the State Council on further deepening the Reform of Urban Housing system and speeding up Housing Construction on July 3, 1998, the housing market in China has achieved a leapfrog from rent to sale. The construction of the housing market has also aroused the widespread concern of the whole society, and has gradually become the pillar industry of the national economy. However, at present, the real estate market is not mature, the real estate as a commodity, its quality is different and complex characteristics determine that the real estate market is "incomplete market", and the market information is asymmetric. There are many factors hindering the reasonable formation of real estate price, which require special knowledge and experience in its judgment. At present, compared with the cost method and the income method, the market comparative method is more directly dependent on the actual data of the market. Therefore, compared with the above two methods, it is easier for people to understand and rely on the market comparative method. This leads to market comparison as one of the most important and most commonly used evaluation methods, which is often chosen by professional appraisers in the practice of real estate valuation. This paper begins with the market comparative method, through the analysis of the market comparative method, understand its basic principle of evaluating the real estate price, and summarize the advantages and disadvantages of the market comparative method. Then, according to the deficiency of its evaluation method, through theoretical research and analysis, we find a more simple and quantitative method to evaluate real estate. In this paper, the grey fuzzy modeling method of market comparison method is put forward. Firstly, the main factors affecting real estate price are screened by grey relational degree analysis theory in grey system theory. Secondly, by means of the principle of closeness degree which can measure the degree of proximity between two fuzzy sets in the theory of fuzzy mathematics, we can select the comparable example which is the most close to the real estate to be evaluated. Then the trading time involved in the market comparison method is adjusted with the GM (1 / 1) prediction model in the grey system theory. Finally, by means of GM (1n) model, the state relationship between real estate price and the factors affecting real estate price is established, and the influence law between influencing factor and price is analyzed. Evaluate the price of real estate to be evaluated according to the factors that affect the real estate. Through the analysis of the above theoretical modeling, the empirical analysis is carried out: a real estate price case in Kunming, Yunnan Province is obtained. According to the above modeling theory, the estimated value of the comparable example and the actual transaction value are calculated step by step in this case, and the error between the estimated value and the actual transaction value is very small or even zero. It is concluded that the grey fuzzy modeling of market comparison method is not only feasible in theory, but also operational in practice.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224
[Abstract]:Article 33 of the Law of the people's Republic of China on Urban Real Estate Management, which came into effect on January 1, 1995, stipulates: "the State implements the system of real estate price evaluation." Real estate valuation must be scientific and reasonable in order to help establish a reasonable order of real estate market promote the fair transaction of real estate and normalize the real estate price. Then, with the promulgation of the notice of the State Council on further deepening the Reform of Urban Housing system and speeding up Housing Construction on July 3, 1998, the housing market in China has achieved a leapfrog from rent to sale. The construction of the housing market has also aroused the widespread concern of the whole society, and has gradually become the pillar industry of the national economy. However, at present, the real estate market is not mature, the real estate as a commodity, its quality is different and complex characteristics determine that the real estate market is "incomplete market", and the market information is asymmetric. There are many factors hindering the reasonable formation of real estate price, which require special knowledge and experience in its judgment. At present, compared with the cost method and the income method, the market comparative method is more directly dependent on the actual data of the market. Therefore, compared with the above two methods, it is easier for people to understand and rely on the market comparative method. This leads to market comparison as one of the most important and most commonly used evaluation methods, which is often chosen by professional appraisers in the practice of real estate valuation. This paper begins with the market comparative method, through the analysis of the market comparative method, understand its basic principle of evaluating the real estate price, and summarize the advantages and disadvantages of the market comparative method. Then, according to the deficiency of its evaluation method, through theoretical research and analysis, we find a more simple and quantitative method to evaluate real estate. In this paper, the grey fuzzy modeling method of market comparison method is put forward. Firstly, the main factors affecting real estate price are screened by grey relational degree analysis theory in grey system theory. Secondly, by means of the principle of closeness degree which can measure the degree of proximity between two fuzzy sets in the theory of fuzzy mathematics, we can select the comparable example which is the most close to the real estate to be evaluated. Then the trading time involved in the market comparison method is adjusted with the GM (1 / 1) prediction model in the grey system theory. Finally, by means of GM (1n) model, the state relationship between real estate price and the factors affecting real estate price is established, and the influence law between influencing factor and price is analyzed. Evaluate the price of real estate to be evaluated according to the factors that affect the real estate. Through the analysis of the above theoretical modeling, the empirical analysis is carried out: a real estate price case in Kunming, Yunnan Province is obtained. According to the above modeling theory, the estimated value of the comparable example and the actual transaction value are calculated step by step in this case, and the error between the estimated value and the actual transaction value is very small or even zero. It is concluded that the grey fuzzy modeling of market comparison method is not only feasible in theory, but also operational in practice.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224
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相關(guān)期刊論文 前8條
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