【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為拉動我國經(jīng)濟的支柱型產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)獲得了蓬勃的發(fā)展。隨著城市化和工業(yè)化進程的加快,人口政策的放開,城市居民人口正在以驚人的速度增加,住房需求與日俱增。然而一線城市的房價如脫韁的烈馬般一路飆升,人民對住房的需求與過快增長的房價之間的矛盾變得日益突出。在這種境況下,政府實施了如土地拍賣出讓、稅收調(diào)整等供給控制政策和以限貸、限購、房產(chǎn)稅增加為代表的需求管制政策來抑制房價過快上漲,同時也加快了完善住房保障制度的步伐,但新的問題又呈現(xiàn)在人們眼前:保障性住房規(guī)模的增加毫無疑問緩解了中低收入群體的住房難問題,但是否會影響商品房市場的發(fā)展,是否對商品房價格產(chǎn)生較大影響,其影響是正向還是負向,專家學者對此問題產(chǎn)生了爭論。在此背景下全面系統(tǒng)地研究保障性住房對商品房價格的影響成為了一種必然趨勢。對于保障性住房對商品房價格影響的問題雖然有許多專家學者進行了研究,但大多都是從經(jīng)濟學原理入手進行定性分析,或者采取面板數(shù)據(jù)分析、向量自回歸模型的定量方法,鮮有利用系統(tǒng)動力學方法來系統(tǒng)地、動態(tài)地分析這一問題的。且由于住房問題受當?shù)亟?jīng)濟、人口、土地等多重因素的影響,地域性差異相當大,因此討論保障房建設對商品房價格影響的問題時不能不分區(qū)域地一概而論。本文選擇北京市房地產(chǎn)市場作為研究對象,以系統(tǒng)動力學理論和供求理論作為支撐,在回顧和總結商品房和保障房的發(fā)展歷程的基礎上,指出了目前北京市房地產(chǎn)市場存在的問題,從供給層面和需求層面分別入手,綜合分析了保障房對商品房價格影響的機理。通過因果關系圖的建立,反饋回路的分析以及系統(tǒng)流圖的建立對北京市商品房價格進行仿真和預測。最后模擬不同保障房政策實施對商品房可能產(chǎn)生的效果,結果顯示:保障房用地占比,保障房規(guī)劃周期,保障房供給量對商品房價格都有不同程度的影響,土地對商品房價格的影響更為顯著。本文構建了保障房和商品房影響關系的系統(tǒng)動力學模型,為這一問題的研究提供了新的研究思路,對北京市房地產(chǎn)市場的健康發(fā)展產(chǎn)生重要意義。而且通過模型模擬調(diào)控結果對調(diào)控政策有針對地提出建議,對接下來制定行之有效的宏觀調(diào)控政策有一定借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry, as the pillar industry that stimulates our country's economy, has already obtained the vigorous development. With the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization and the liberalization of population policy, the population of urban residents is increasing at an alarming rate, and the demand for housing is increasing day by day. But prices in first-tier cities have soared like runaway horses, and the contradiction between people's demand for housing and rising prices has become increasingly acute. In this situation, the government has implemented supply control policies such as land auction and sale, tax adjustment, and demand control policies, such as restricting loans, limiting purchases, and increasing property taxes, to curb the excessive rise in house prices. At the same time, the pace of improving the housing security system has also been quickened, but new problems have emerged: the increase in the scale of affordable housing undoubtedly alleviates the housing difficulties of the middle and low income groups, but whether it will affect the development of the commercial housing market, Experts and scholars have debated whether the impact on the price of commercial housing is positive or negative. In this context, a comprehensive and systematic study of the impact of affordable housing on the price of commercial housing has become an inevitable trend. Although many experts and scholars have studied the impact of affordable housing on the price of commercial housing, most of them are qualitative analysis based on the principles of economics, or the quantitative method of panel data analysis and vector autoregressive model. It is rare to analyze this problem systematically and dynamically by using the method of system dynamics. Because the housing problem is influenced by many factors, such as local economy, population, land and so on, the regional difference is quite great. Therefore, when discussing the influence of indemnificatory apartment construction on the price of commercial housing, we should generalize it by region. This paper chooses the real estate market of Beijing as the research object, taking the theory of system dynamics and the theory of supply and demand as the support, on the basis of reviewing and summing up the development course of commercial housing and indemnificatory apartment. This paper points out the problems existing in the real estate market of Beijing at present, and analyzes comprehensively the mechanism of indemnificatory apartment's influence on the price of commercial housing from the aspects of supply and demand. Through the establishment of causality diagram, the analysis of feedback loop and the establishment of system flow chart, the paper simulates and forecasts the price of commercial housing in Beijing. At last, we simulate the possible effects of different indemnificatory apartment policies on commercial housing. The results show that the proportion of land used by indemnificatory apartment, the planning cycle of indemnificatory apartment, and the supply of indemnificatory apartment have different degrees of influence on the price of commercial housing. The impact of land on the price of commercial housing is more significant. In this paper, the system dynamics model of the relationship between indemnificatory apartment and commercial housing is constructed, which provides a new way of thinking for the study of this problem, and has important significance for the healthy development of the real estate market in Beijing. And through the model simulation of the results of regulation and control policy to put forward suggestions for the next effective macro-control policy has a certain reference significance.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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