【摘要】：改革開放三十多年，中國經(jīng)濟經(jīng)歷了深刻的變革，顯示出如下特點：一是高儲蓄率與低消費率并行。二是同一期的經(jīng)濟和居民收入的增長水平要低于儲蓄存款的增長速度。三是我國居民消費對GDP的貢獻率相對下降。這些現(xiàn)象引起專家學(xué)者們的關(guān)注，并且試圖用預(yù)防性儲蓄理論來解釋這類問題。 社會上開始對這些現(xiàn)象十分關(guān)注，也有專家學(xué)者嘗試用預(yù)防性儲蓄理論來解釋這類問題，度量不確定性對儲蓄及消費的影響。 預(yù)防性儲蓄理論是生命周期-持久收入模型的修改與補充，同時把收入的不確定性和理性預(yù)期引入其中，對消費者為達到效用最大化這一目標，在不同時點上將采取怎樣的消費行為進行了分析。 本文共分為五個部分。第一部分是導(dǎo)論，闡述了本文的選題背景和意義，對相關(guān)文獻的綜述以及本文的研究方法與結(jié)構(gòu)。中國經(jīng)濟高速發(fā)展的同時，儲蓄與消費的失衡，人們?yōu)榱祟A(yù)防未來收入的不確定性而減少消費，增加儲蓄，這是本文的選題背景。本文從國外和國內(nèi)兩個方面對相關(guān)文獻進行綜述。 第二部分，對預(yù)防性儲蓄理論和該理論的演化過程做了簡要概述，并介紹了4種常見的預(yù)防性儲蓄模型，分別是Zeldes的預(yù)防性儲蓄模型、Dynan的預(yù)防性儲蓄模型、Carroll等的預(yù)防性儲蓄模型和Guiso等的預(yù)防性儲蓄模型，對這些模型的模型形式，使用情況及各自特點，分別進行闡述。 第三部分，利用城鎮(zhèn)、鄉(xiāng)村和全國數(shù)據(jù)，使用計量方法，對這些地方的居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機強度進行估計。采用狀態(tài)空間模型，對1978-2010年的中國城鎮(zhèn)、鄉(xiāng)村和全國居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄強度的時序變化進行實證分析，得出結(jié)論：中國城鄉(xiāng)居民存在較強的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機，且鄉(xiāng)村高于城鎮(zhèn)。 第四部分，利用東、中、西部城鄉(xiāng)數(shù)據(jù)，使用計量方法，對這些地方的居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機強度進行估計。使用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，對這類地區(qū)1995-2010年間中國城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄強度進行實證分析，得出結(jié)論：中國東、中、西部地區(qū)都存在較強的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機。 第五部分為政策建議。針對計量結(jié)論我國城鄉(xiāng)居民存在較強的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機，分析原因，提出相應(yīng)政策建議，如建立完善的收入制度、完善養(yǎng)老政策、擴大醫(yī)療保險范圍、加強房地產(chǎn)價格調(diào)控。
[Abstract]:Over 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has undergone profound changes, showing the following characteristics: first, high savings rate and low consumption rate parallel. Second, the growth level of economy and resident income in the same period is lower than the growth rate of savings deposits. Third, the contribution rate of resident consumption to GDP is relatively lower. These phenomena have attracted the attention of experts and scholars, and try to explain these problems with precautionary saving theory. The society began to pay close attention to these phenomena and some experts and scholars tried to explain these problems with the precautionary saving theory to measure the influence of uncertainty on savings and consumption. The precautionary saving theory is the modification and supplement of the life-cycle-lasting income model. Meanwhile, the uncertainty and rational expectation of income are introduced to the consumers to achieve the goal of maximizing utility. What kind of consumption behavior will be taken at different time points is analyzed. This paper is divided into five parts. The first part is an introduction, which describes the background and significance of this topic, the review of relevant literature, and the research methods and structure of this paper. With the rapid development of China's economy, the imbalance between savings and consumption, people in order to prevent future income uncertainty and reduce consumption, increase savings, this is the background of this paper. This paper reviews the relevant literature from both foreign and domestic aspects. In the second part, the precautionary savings theory and its evolution are briefly summarized, and four common precautionary savings models are introduced, which are Zeldes's precautionary savings model and Dynan's precautionary savings model. The precautionary savings model of Carroll et al and the precautionary savings model of Guiso et al. In the third part, using urban, rural and national data, the paper estimates the intensity of precautionary saving motivation of residents in these places. By using the state space model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the time-series changes of the precautionary saving intensity of Chinese urban, rural and national residents from 1978 to 2010, and draws a conclusion that there is a strong precautionary saving motivation in China's urban and rural residents. And the countryside is higher than the town. In the fourth part, using the urban and rural data of east, middle and west, and using the method of measurement, we estimate the intensity of precautionary saving motivation of residents in these places. By using panel data model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the precautionary saving intensity of urban and rural residents in these areas from 1995 to 2010, and draws a conclusion that there are strong precautionary savings motives in eastern, middle and western China. The fifth part is the policy suggestion. In the light of the measurement conclusion, this paper analyzes the reasons for the strong precautionary saving motivation of urban and rural residents in China, and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions, such as establishing a perfect income system, perfecting the old-age policy, expanding the scope of medical insurance, and strengthening the regulation of real estate prices.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.22

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