【摘要】：2015年“8.11匯改”后,人民幣匯率開始持續(xù)貶值,我國外匯儲備也下降了近10000億美元,人民幣匯率面臨著巨大的貶值壓力;同期我國房地產價格卻出現(xiàn)了迅速的上漲行情,2016年10月百城住宅價格指數為12,825元/平方米,同比上漲18.2%。在人民幣匯率持續(xù)貶值而房價大幅走高的背景下,我國面臨著資本外流壓力增大和房地產價格超出合理范圍的雙重挑戰(zhàn)。如果形勢繼續(xù)惡化,我國甚至可能面臨匯市樓市雙殺、進而引起經濟衰退的危局。在此背景下,研究人民幣匯率與房地產價的相互影響關系,可以為我國政府制定與實施相關宏觀經濟政策提供理論支持,這對于更好地應對挑戰(zhàn)和可能的危機具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文從國際資本流動和國內貨幣供給兩大傳導渠道對人民幣匯率與房地產價格的相互影響關系進行了理論分析,并且利用MS-VAR非線性模型對四者的相關性進行了實證檢驗,以此明晰人民幣匯率與房地產價格如何通過國際資本流動和國內貨幣供給兩大渠道相互影響,以及兩大渠道分別在其中發(fā)揮作用的強弱程度。通過理論分析和實證分析,得出結論:國際資本流動渠道與國內貨幣供給渠道均存在,即人民幣匯率與房地產價格會通過國內貨幣供給和短期國際資本流動為中介橋梁相互影響,并且短期國際資本流動渠道的影響比國內貨幣供給渠道的影響更為顯著。最后基于研究結論和我國的實際情況,從匯率制度、貨幣發(fā)行制度、跨境資本監(jiān)控、房地產供需管理四個方面為我國政府提出相應政策建議。
[Abstract]:After the "8.11 exchange rate reform" in 2015, the RMB exchange rate began to depreciate continuously, the foreign exchange reserve of our country also dropped nearly 1 trillion US dollars, the RMB exchange rate is facing the huge depreciation pressure; In the same period, China's real estate prices have seen a rapid rise, with the 100-city residential price index rising 18.2 yuan per square meter in October 2016, up 18.2 yuan from the same period last year. Under the background of RMB exchange rate devaluing and house prices rising sharply, China is faced with the double challenges of increasing the pressure of capital outflow and the real estate price exceeding a reasonable range. If the situation continues to deteriorate, China may even face a currency market double kill, causing a recession. In this context, the study of the relationship between RMB exchange rate and real estate prices can provide theoretical support for our government to formulate and implement relevant macroeconomic policies. This has important practical significance for better dealing with challenges and possible crises. This paper makes a theoretical analysis of the interaction between RMB exchange rate and real estate price from the two transmission channels of international capital flow and domestic money supply, and makes an empirical test on the correlation of the four by using MS-VAR nonlinear model. In this way, it is clear how the RMB exchange rate and the real estate price affect each other through the two channels of international capital flow and domestic money supply, as well as the extent to which the two channels play their respective roles. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, it is concluded that both international capital flow channels and domestic money supply channels exist. That is, RMB exchange rate and real estate price will interact with each other through domestic money supply and short-term international capital flow, and the influence of short-term international capital flow channel is more significant than that of domestic money supply channel. Finally, based on the conclusion of the research and the actual situation of our country, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for our government from four aspects: exchange rate system, currency issue system, cross-border capital monitoring and real estate supply and demand management.
【學位授予單位】：對外經濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F299.23

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