【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)是我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的成功與否決定了房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的興衰，而房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的成敗主要取決于項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流，，如何對(duì)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流進(jìn)行管理，實(shí)現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)值最大化，顯得尤為重要。由于房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開發(fā)周期長(zhǎng)、易受項(xiàng)目所在地的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、政策環(huán)境影響，導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流具有不確定性，為了得到較為準(zhǔn)確、可靠的現(xiàn)金流量，必須考慮現(xiàn)金流量的不確定性，用科學(xué)的方法估算現(xiàn)金流量，進(jìn)而為房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目在各個(gè)開發(fā)階段的現(xiàn)金流控制提供依據(jù)。本文在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目不確定性現(xiàn)金流管理。 本文主要從房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流估算和開發(fā)各階段的現(xiàn)金流控制這兩個(gè)方面對(duì)現(xiàn)金流進(jìn)行管理。房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流估算管理中，以現(xiàn)金流量表為主線，分析影響房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流的不確定性因素；對(duì)影響現(xiàn)金流的不確定性因素進(jìn)一步篩選，選出需要估算的現(xiàn)金流項(xiàng)目，為了提高估算的準(zhǔn)確性應(yīng)用物元分析法選擇類似項(xiàng)目，并收集類似項(xiàng)目的現(xiàn)金流信息，根據(jù)收集到的信息判定需要估算的現(xiàn)金流分布類型，在此基礎(chǔ)上利用概率論和數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法提出不確定性現(xiàn)金流估算模型；根據(jù)不確定性現(xiàn)金流估算模型，應(yīng)用計(jì)算機(jī)仿真技術(shù)，得到指定現(xiàn)金流發(fā)生的概率以及要求概率下需要的現(xiàn)金流量。房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流控制管理中，分析了房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目不同階段現(xiàn)流控制的重點(diǎn)，提出了設(shè)計(jì)階段以價(jià)值工程優(yōu)選方案控制現(xiàn)金流；施工階段以控制招標(biāo)過(guò)程、施工過(guò)程、竣工驗(yàn)收達(dá)到控制現(xiàn)金流的目的；銷售階段通過(guò)制定銷售計(jì)劃、進(jìn)行階段總結(jié)以及實(shí)行銷售費(fèi)用審計(jì)控制現(xiàn)金流。 本文對(duì)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流管理進(jìn)行了分析，將物元分析法、概率論和數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法、計(jì)算機(jī)仿真引入現(xiàn)金流管理活動(dòng)中，為房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流管理提供新思路，具有理論意義。不確定性現(xiàn)金流估算及現(xiàn)金流控制，為房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流管理提供了參考依據(jù)，具有實(shí)踐意義。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our national economy, the success or failure of the real estate project determines the rise and fall of the real estate industry, and the success or failure of the real estate project mainly depends on the project cash flow, how to manage the project cash flow. It is particularly important to maximize the value of real estate projects. Because of the long development cycle of the real estate project and the influence of the economic environment and policy environment of the project location, the cash flow of the real estate project is uncertain, in order to obtain more accurate and reliable cash flow, The uncertainty of cash flow must be considered, and the cash flow should be estimated by scientific method, which can provide the basis for the cash flow control of real estate projects in various stages of development. On this basis, this paper puts forward uncertainty cash flow management of real estate projects. In this paper, cash flow is managed from two aspects: cash flow estimation of real estate project and cash flow control in each stage of development. In the management of cash flow estimation of real estate projects, the main line of cash flow statement is to analyze the uncertain factors that affect the cash flow of real estate projects, and further screen the uncertain factors that affect cash flow, and select the cash flow items that need to be estimated. In order to improve the accuracy of estimation, using matter-element analysis method to select similar items and collect cash flow information of similar projects, the distribution type of cash flow that needs to be estimated is determined according to the information collected. On this basis, the uncertain cash flow estimation model is proposed by using probability theory and mathematical statistics, and the computer simulation technology is applied to estimate the uncertain cash flow model. Obtain the probability of the occurrence of the specified cash flow and the required cash flow under the required probability. In the cash flow control management of real estate projects, this paper analyzes the key points of the current flow control in different stages of real estate projects, and puts forward the design stage to control the cash flow by the optimal scheme of value engineering, and the construction stage to control the bidding process and the construction process. Completion acceptance controls cash flow; sales phase controls cash flow by making sales plan, phase summing up and sales expense audit. This paper analyzes the cash flow management of real estate projects. It is of theoretical significance to introduce matter-element analysis, probability theory and mathematical statistical methods, computer simulation into cash flow management activities, and to provide new ideas for cash flow management of real estate projects. Uncertainty cash flow estimation and cash flow control provide a reference for cash flow management of real estate projects and have practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275.1;F299.233.4

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