【摘要】：近年來,隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,中國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)也成長起來,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)交易變得更加活躍,商品房交易量不斷攀升。房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)需要大量的資金支持,而資金融通的主要場(chǎng)所是金融市場(chǎng),這使得房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展與金融市場(chǎng)的聯(lián)系更為密切。在我國,資本市場(chǎng)發(fā)展較慢,金融市場(chǎng)的主體仍然是金融機(jī)構(gòu),因而,金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款為房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)提供了大量的資金來源。同時(shí),房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上的盲目開發(fā)與投資會(huì)引發(fā)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng),房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)會(huì)直接影響到金融機(jī)構(gòu)的貸款回收,也將對(duì)區(qū)域金融的穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生影響。 本文將甘肅省作為研究對(duì)象,選取其2002—2011年的時(shí)間數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本,在理論分析和現(xiàn)狀描述的基礎(chǔ)上,引入了區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定指標(biāo)體系,利用熵值法計(jì)算出甘肅省2002—2011年的金融穩(wěn)定綜合指數(shù),并建立VAR模型,運(yùn)用計(jì)量方法實(shí)證分析了甘肅省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定的影響,并得出了以下結(jié)論： 第一,2002年以來,整體上甘肅省房地產(chǎn)銷售面積穩(wěn)步增加,房地產(chǎn)銷售價(jià)格持續(xù)上升。2003年SARS的爆發(fā)和2008年的全球金融危機(jī)使得甘肅省房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了短暫的冷清,房地產(chǎn)銷售面積和銷售價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了一定的波動(dòng),但在一系列政策的引導(dǎo)下,波動(dòng)幅度相對(duì)較小,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格整體上呈現(xiàn)了穩(wěn)健中上升的態(tài)勢(shì)。 第二,2002—2011年間,甘肅省區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定狀況在逐漸變好,甘肅省區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定指標(biāo)體系相關(guān)指標(biāo)發(fā)展較好,對(duì)區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定的貢獻(xiàn)進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)。其中宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況、企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率和城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入在區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定指標(biāo)體系中所占比例較大,因而對(duì)區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定的影響更為顯著。 第三,甘肅省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生負(fù)作用。劇烈的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)將使得區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定性降低,同時(shí),區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定狀況也會(huì)隨著房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的平穩(wěn)波動(dòng)而變的更好。 最后,從加大房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控、拓寬房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)融資渠道、提升金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范意識(shí)、完善區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定體系等視角提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, the Chinese real estate market has also grown up, real estate market transactions become more active, commercial housing transactions continue to rise. The real estate industry needs a lot of financial support, and the main place for financing is the financial market, which makes the development of the real estate market more closely related to the financial market. In China, the development of capital market is slow, the main body of financial market is still financial institutions, so financial institutions provide a large number of sources of capital for real estate enterprises. At the same time, the blind development and investment in the real estate market will lead to the fluctuation of the real estate market price. The fluctuation of the real estate market price will directly affect the loan recovery of financial institutions, and will also have an impact on the stability of regional finance. This paper takes Gansu Province as the research object, selects its time data from 2002 to 2011 as the sample, introduces the regional financial stability index system on the basis of theoretical analysis and current situation description. The comprehensive index of financial stability in Gansu Province from 2002 to 2011 is calculated by entropy method, and the VAR model is established. The impact of real estate price fluctuation on regional financial stability in Gansu Province is analyzed by means of econometric method. And draw the following conclusions: first, since 2002, the overall area of real estate sales in Gansu Province has steadily increased. Real estate sales prices continued to rise. The outbreak of SARS in 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2008 made the real estate market in Gansu Province appear a short period of indifference, real estate sales area and sales prices have fluctuated. But under the guidance of a series of policies, the fluctuation range is relatively small, and the real estate price as a whole presents a steady rising trend. From 2002 to 2011, the situation of regional financial stability in Gansu Province has gradually improved. The index system of regional financial stability of Gansu Province has developed better, and its contribution to regional financial stability has been further strengthened. The macroeconomic situation, the ratio of assets and liabilities of enterprises and the disposable income of urban residents account for a large proportion in the regional financial stability index system, so the impact on regional financial stability is more significant. Third, real estate price fluctuations in Gansu Province have a negative impact on regional financial stability. The violent real estate price fluctuation will reduce the regional financial stability, at the same time, the regional financial stability will change better with the stable fluctuation of the real estate price. Finally, from the angle of increasing the regulation of real estate market, widening the financing channels of real estate enterprises, raising the awareness of financial risk prevention and perfecting the regional financial stability system, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27;F832.7

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