本文選題：房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理��； 參考：《東北石油大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)快速發(fā)展，日益成為我國的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。然而房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)能夠給投資者帶來巨大收益的同時(shí)，也具有較高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性。由于房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開發(fā)，涉及買賣土地并改造、房屋的建設(shè)并驗(yàn)收過程以及最后房產(chǎn)商品的租售等一系列過程，所以房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資建設(shè)周期較長，另外項(xiàng)目所需資金數(shù)額較多，涉及的相關(guān)利益主體較多，并且房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)容易受國家政策所影響，因此在這一系列活動(dòng)中，不確定因素始終伴隨著房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的全過程，也就是說房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)不可避免地面臨著各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因而對房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行研究有著迫切的必要性和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文以M商業(yè)廣場開發(fā)項(xiàng)目作為實(shí)例分析，運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)的觀點(diǎn)，對該項(xiàng)目的開發(fā)整個(gè)過程進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理分析，包括土地的獲取階段到最后的項(xiàng)目租賃階段。本文在對項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)闡述的基礎(chǔ)之上，，充分運(yùn)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估分析到最后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對策略及監(jiān)控這一系列管理過程，對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的投資決策階段、開發(fā)前期階段、項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段、房地產(chǎn)商品的最終租賃階段四個(gè)階段逐一分析，并綜合運(yùn)用定性及定量分析的方法，對各個(gè)階段的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及次要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做出準(zhǔn)確的評估，并提出合理的解決辦法。 本論文闡述了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義、分類，項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的步驟及所用的技術(shù)方法等。根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目不同階段可能的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響的程度范圍等，對M商業(yè)廣場項(xiàng)目的四個(gè)階段的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素逐一分析，并將所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行分類。然后運(yùn)用專家調(diào)查這一定性分析方法，以及敏感性分析、盈虧平衡的定量分析方法，對識別出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行評估，并得到了重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、次要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最后根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響程度的不同，結(jié)合M項(xiàng)目本身的特點(diǎn)，對不同階段的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素選擇合適的應(yīng)對策略，以減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)造成的損失程度，完成項(xiàng)目的最終目標(biāo)。另外，對M商業(yè)廣場項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行實(shí)時(shí)跟蹤控制，以便在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控的過程中對新出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及時(shí)處理，不僅解決了M商業(yè)廣場項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理這一實(shí)際問題，并對未來的類似項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理具有一定的借鑒參考意義。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry has developed rapidly and become the pillar industry of our country day by day. However, real estate development can bring huge profits to investors, but also has a higher risk. Because the real estate project development involves a series of processes, such as buying and selling land and transforming, building and accepting the house, and renting and selling the final real estate commodity, the investment and construction period of the real estate development project is relatively long. In addition, the amount of funds needed for the project is more, the relevant stakeholders are more involved, and the real estate industry is vulnerable to the influence of national policies. Therefore, in this series of activities, uncertainties always accompany the whole process of the real estate development project. In other words, real estate enterprises inevitably face various risks. Therefore, it is necessary and practical to study the risk management of real estate projects. This paper takes the M Commercial Square Development Project as an example to analyze the risk management of the whole process of the development of the project, including the stage of land acquisition to the final stage of project lease. On the basis of summarizing and expounding the existing documents of project risk management, this paper makes full use of risk identification, risk assessment and analysis to the final risk response strategy and monitoring the series of management processes. This paper analyzes the investment decision stage, the early stage of development, the stage of project construction and the stage of final lease of real estate commodity one by one, and uses the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis synthetically. Make an accurate assessment of major and secondary risks at all stages and propose reasonable solutions. This paper describes the definition and classification of risk, the steps of project risk management and the technical methods used. According to the possible risk sources, risk events and the extent of risk impact in different stages of the real estate development project, the risk factors of the four stages of M Commercial Square Project are analyzed one by one, and all the risk factors are classified. Then, using the qualitative analysis method of expert investigation, sensitivity analysis and quantitative analysis method of break-even, the identified risk factors are evaluated, and the important risk and secondary risk are obtained. Finally, according to the different degree of risk influence and the characteristics of M project itself, the appropriate coping strategies are selected for the risk factors in different stages in order to reduce the degree of loss caused by risk and to complete the final goal of the project. In addition, the M commercial square project is tracked and controlled in real time in order to deal with the emerging risks in time during the process of risk monitoring, which not only solves the practical problem of risk management of M commercial square project, And the risk management of similar projects in the future has certain reference significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU712

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