本文選題：流動性 + 金融去杠桿　； 參考：《對外經濟貿易大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著我國金融市場的快速發(fā)展,直接融資在社會融資總量的比重不斷提高。我國直接融資市場以債券市場為主,2016年末我國債券市場托管量已達58.14萬億元,僅次于美國和日本,位列第三。自2012年我國對外公布社會融資規(guī)模數據以來,無論是在社會融資存量還是增量中,企業(yè)債券融資成為僅次于人民幣貸款的第二大融資方式,截至2016年末,我國社會融資存量規(guī)模高達155.99萬億元人民幣,其中企業(yè)債券存量融資為17.92萬億元,占比11%;當年社會融資規(guī)模增量規(guī)模178,023億元,其中企業(yè)債券增量融資為29,993億元,占比17%,而2012年社會融資規(guī)模增量規(guī)模157,631萬元,其中企業(yè)債券增量融資為22,551億元,占比14%。得益于國家政策支持,我國債券市場保持了繁榮發(fā)展,市場主體的數量和種類不斷增多,產品不斷豐富,債券融資規(guī)模不斷上升,制度不斷完善,為經濟快速發(fā)展提供了重要的資金保障,因此,我國債券市場的健康、穩(wěn)定、有序、快速發(fā)展對于維護金融市場和實體經濟的健康發(fā)展,實現經濟結構轉型升級十分重要。然而,自2008年金融危機爆發(fā)后,我國債券市場的快速發(fā)展也并非一帆風順,一共經歷四次流動性危機。本文以2008年金融危機后發(fā)生的四次流動性危機為研究對象,通過對比和數據分析,總結了引發(fā)我國債券市場流動性危機的主要因素。研究結果表明:流動性危機主要與包括季節(jié)性因素、人民幣貶值因素和信用事件因素密切相關,但這些常規(guī)因素并非決定因素,只是起到助推或加強流動性緊張的作用;社會融資需求的增長與貨幣的收緊造成資金缺口,是2011年和2014年底兩次流動性危機爆發(fā)的主因。金融機構高杠桿、期限錯配嚴重造成的監(jiān)管機構持續(xù)去桿杠,是2013年年中和2016年底兩次流動性危機爆發(fā)的主要原因;金融危機后我國經濟增長過度依賴貨幣強刺激和房地產投資,造成實體經濟越發(fā)疲軟,產能嚴重過剩,虛擬經濟繁榮,而長期存在的二元融資結構,又加劇了資金配置效率低下的矛盾,使得過度資金滯留在金融體系空轉,是流動性危機的根本原因。最后,結合四次流動性危機產生的原因,本文從加強監(jiān)管部門、金融機構和企業(yè)三方合作以及控制負債規(guī)模兩個方面提出預防和應對流動性危機的建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of China's financial market, the proportion of direct financing in the total amount of social financing is increasing. China's direct financing market is dominated by the bond market. At the end of 2016, the amount of bond market in China has reached 58.14 trillion yuan, ranking third after the United States and Japan. Since the publication of social financing scale data in China in 2012, corporate bond financing has become the second largest financing method after RMB loans in both the stock and increment of social financing. Until the end of 2016, corporate bond financing has become the second largest form of financing after RMB loans. The scale of the stock of social financing in our country is as high as 155.99 trillion yuan, of which the stock of enterprise bonds is 17.92 trillion yuan, accounting for 11 percent of the total; in that year, the scale of social financing increased by 17.8023 trillion yuan, of which the incremental financing of corporate bonds was 2.9993 trillion yuan. In 2012, the scale of social financing increased by 1.57631 billion yuan, of which corporate bonds increased to 2.2551 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4 percent. Thanks to the support of national policies, China's bond market has maintained a prosperous development, with the number and variety of market subjects increasing, the products constantly rich, the scale of bond financing continuously rising, and the system constantly improving. Therefore, the healthy, stable, orderly and rapid development of China's bond market is very important to maintain the healthy development of financial market and real economy, and to realize the transformation and upgrading of economic structure. However, since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the rapid development of China's bond market is not smooth, a total of four liquidity crises. Taking the four liquidity crises that occurred after the financial crisis in 2008 as the research object, this paper summarizes the main factors causing the liquidity crisis in China's bond market through comparison and data analysis. The results show that the liquidity crisis is closely related to seasonal factors, RMB depreciation factors and credit event factors, but these conventional factors are not decisive factors, but only play a role in promoting or strengthening liquidity tension; The funding gap caused by the growth in social financing demand and the tightening of the currency was the main cause of the two liquidity crises that broke out in 2011 and late 2014. The high leverage of financial institutions and the serious mismatch of the term caused by the continued removal of regulators was the main reason for the outbreak of the two liquidity crises in mid-2013 and late 2016. After the financial crisis, our country's economic growth was excessively dependent on strong monetary stimulus and real estate investment, which led to the weakening of the real economy, the serious overcapacity, the prosperity of the virtual economy, and the long-standing dual financing structure. The contradiction of low efficiency of capital allocation is aggravated and the excessive capital is stranded in the financial system, which is the fundamental cause of liquidity crisis. Finally, combined with the causes of the four liquidity crises, this paper puts forward some suggestions to prevent and deal with the liquidity crisis from the aspects of strengthening the supervision department, the tripartite cooperation between financial institutions and enterprises, and controlling the scale of liabilities.
【學位授予單位】：對外經濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51
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本文編號：1893310