本文選題：房地產(chǎn)周期 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期��； 參考：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中具有舉足輕重的地位，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)大部分地區(qū)的支柱型產(chǎn)業(yè)，房地產(chǎn)的穩(wěn)健發(fā)展關(guān)系到整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。近年來(lái)房地產(chǎn)的價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了過(guò)快增長(zhǎng)的現(xiàn)象。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)作為國(guó)家宏觀(guān)調(diào)控的重點(diǎn)，研究房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的關(guān)系，分析影響房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)的因素具有非常重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文對(duì)昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)周期波動(dòng)的研究獻(xiàn)上一份力，同時(shí)也在實(shí)踐中為政府引到房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展提供借鑒和參考。 當(dāng)前我國(guó)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)的研究主要集中在定性化研究上，而且很大一部分研究是行業(yè)內(nèi)部研究，對(duì)各影響因素的定量分析較少。 在理論部分，本文首先介紹了國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)周期和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的理論研究，包括了二者的定義、類(lèi)型、運(yùn)行原理。然后又進(jìn)行了房地產(chǎn)周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的相互作用的闡釋。接著文章描述了當(dāng)前國(guó)家宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)、昆明市區(qū)域性經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀和昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)狀以及不足。同時(shí)，，本文歸納搜集了2000年——2012年來(lái)我國(guó)政府發(fā)布的房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)政策，為后文研究做鋪墊。 在實(shí)證部分，本文選取了2000年到2012年關(guān)于影響經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的主要因素，選取運(yùn)用GDP作為因變量，選取房地產(chǎn)投資、全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資、通貨膨脹率和利率四項(xiàng)作為自變量進(jìn)行VAR模型分析。 接著，本文選取同時(shí)期關(guān)于影響房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)的主要因素，選取國(guó)房景氣指數(shù)作為因變量，然后在影響房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)的三大類(lèi)指標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上，綜合選取了房地產(chǎn)投資、生產(chǎn)總值固定資產(chǎn)投資、通貨膨脹率、利率、竣工面積、商品房平均價(jià)格、商品房銷(xiāo)售面積、人均可支配收，把這幾項(xiàng)因素作為自變量進(jìn)行模型分析。 最后，文章將經(jīng)濟(jì)周期與房地產(chǎn)周期相結(jié)合分析，運(yùn)用協(xié)整理論，建立了模型并檢驗(yàn)。由此發(fā)現(xiàn)，雖然房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)幅度較大，但是與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期增長(zhǎng)呈現(xiàn)一致性，且高于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起著至關(guān)重要的作用。 本文創(chuàng)新之處還在于，文章將政策因素做了定量性分析。本文研究了房地產(chǎn)政策對(duì)房地產(chǎn)周期的影響，本文運(yùn)用2000年到2013年2月的房地產(chǎn)的主要指標(biāo)——國(guó)房景氣指數(shù)，共153個(gè)指數(shù)，進(jìn)行平滑處理，運(yùn)用HP濾波法對(duì)房地產(chǎn)周期進(jìn)行了平穩(wěn)性研究。根據(jù)波動(dòng)情況將2000年到2013年初劃分為5個(gè)中長(zhǎng)周期，結(jié)合了每一時(shí)期的政策進(jìn)行分析。接著，本文將政策定量化，運(yùn)用Eviews進(jìn)行相關(guān)性分析。 文章對(duì)當(dāng)前昆明市房地產(chǎn)周與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期期情況做了總結(jié)闡釋?zhuān)ㄟ^(guò)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)波動(dòng)的影響因素和宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的分析，給予了一定調(diào)整周期波動(dòng)，維持市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展的建議和政策。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry plays an important role in the development of national economy. The real estate industry has become the pillar industry in most areas of China. The steady development of the real estate industry is related to the development of the whole economy. In recent years, the price of real estate has increased too fast. The real estate market is the focal point of national macro-control. It is of great practical significance to study the relationship between the real estate cycle fluctuation and the economic cycle fluctuation, and to analyze the factors that affect the real estate cycle fluctuation. This paper makes a contribution to the study of the periodic fluctuation of real estate market in Kunming, and at the same time provides a reference for the government to lead to the stable development of the real estate market in practice. At present, the research on the periodic fluctuation of real estate in our country is mainly focused on qualitative research, and a large part of the research is the research within the industry, and the quantitative analysis of the influencing factors is less. In the theoretical part, this paper firstly introduces the theoretical research of real estate cycle and economic cycle at home and abroad, including the definition, type and operation principle of the two. Then it explains the interaction between real estate cycle and economic cycle. Then the article describes the current state macroeconomic, Kunming regional economic situation and Kunming real estate market status and deficiencies. At the same time, this paper summarizes the relevant policies issued by our government from 2000 to 2012, which pave the way for the later research. In the empirical part, this paper selects the main factors that affect the economic cycle fluctuation from 2000 to 2012, selects the GDP as the dependent variable, selects the real estate investment, the whole society fixed asset investment. Inflation rate and interest rate as independent variables are analyzed by VAR model. Then, this paper selects the main factors that affect the real estate cycle fluctuation in the same period, selects the national housing boom index as the dependent variable, and then on the basis of the three kinds of indicators that affect the real estate cycle fluctuation, it synthetically selects the real estate investment. Gross domestic product fixed asset investment, inflation rate, interest rate, completed area, average price of commercial house, sale area of commercial house, per capita disposable income are analyzed as independent variables. Finally, the paper combines the economic cycle with the real estate cycle, establishes the model and tests it by cointegration theory. It is found that although the real estate cycle fluctuates greatly, it is consistent with the economic cycle growth and is higher than the economic growth rate. The healthy development of the real estate market plays a vital role in the economic development of our country. The innovation of this paper also lies in the quantitative analysis of policy factors. This paper studies the impact of real estate policy on the real estate cycle. This paper uses the national housing boom index, the main index of real estate from 2000 to February 2013, to smooth out 153 indexes. HP filtering method is used to study the stability of real estate cycle. According to the volatility, the period from 2000 to early 2013 is divided into five medium-and long-term cycles, combined with the policy analysis for each period. Then, this article quantifies the policy, uses Eviews to carry on the correlation analysis. This paper summarizes and explains the current situation of real estate week and economic cycle in Kunming, and gives some suggestions and policies to adjust the cycle fluctuation and maintain the healthy development of the market through the analysis of the influencing factors of real estate fluctuation and macro economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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