本文選題：貨幣政策 + 房價��； 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)自改革以來不僅自身蓬勃發(fā)展,作為國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),也促進了中國經(jīng)濟的增長。雖然房地產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來了可觀的經(jīng)濟效益,但近年來,房地產(chǎn)價格持續(xù)快速增長,也帶來了嚴重的社會問題。目前,房價已經(jīng)成為全國人民關(guān)注的焦點話題,如何抑制房地產(chǎn)價格的快速增長也是國家調(diào)控宏觀經(jīng)濟的重要內(nèi)容。貨幣政策是影響房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的一項重要因素,為了維護房地產(chǎn)市場的穩(wěn)定性,中央銀行多次調(diào)整存貸款利率和貨幣供應(yīng)量,以此來對房價進行宏觀調(diào)控。因此,在現(xiàn)階段研究貨幣政策對房價的影響具有很重要的意義,可以為國家制定相關(guān)政策提供一定的參考價值。 本文通過文獻研究發(fā)現(xiàn),VAR模型作為一種動態(tài)模型,主要通過實際經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)而非經(jīng)濟理論來確定經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的動態(tài)結(jié)構(gòu),逐漸替代了以理論為導(dǎo)向構(gòu)建的經(jīng)典計量經(jīng)濟模型,在利用時間序列數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測宏觀經(jīng)濟變量相互關(guān)系中得到了廣泛的應(yīng)用,在此利用向量自回歸模型,對貨幣政策與房價的關(guān)系進行具體分析。 本文在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)價格的研究和我國對房地產(chǎn)市場實施的貨幣政策的基礎(chǔ)上,從微觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)的供需理論出發(fā),分析貨幣政策與房價的關(guān)系。根據(jù)我國貨幣政策對房價影響的傳導(dǎo)渠道,選取利率和貨幣供應(yīng)量作為本文研究的貨幣政策指標,構(gòu)建貨幣政策與房價關(guān)系的研究體系。以遼寧省為例,搜集了2003至2013年的季度數(shù)據(jù),利用EVIEWS7.0軟件建立了5年以上貸款利率、貨幣供應(yīng)量、城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入和房屋銷售價格的向量自回歸(VAR)模型,進行實證研究。在對VAR模型的分析中,通過脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)確定各指標對房地產(chǎn)價格的影響,通過方差分解方法比較各指標對房地產(chǎn)價格影響的貢獻率。 通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn),5年以上貸款利率對房價存在正向影響,但是這種影響比較微弱；貨幣供應(yīng)量對房價具有長期的正向作用；居民可支配收入對于房價同樣具有長期正向作用,并且前期波動較大。對房價影響貢獻度最大的是居民可支配收入,其次是貨幣供應(yīng)量,5年以上貸款利率的貢獻度最小。 以上結(jié)論可以證明,降低貨幣供應(yīng)量的供給,可以降低遼寧省房價,貨幣供應(yīng)量調(diào)控是有效的；5年以上貸款利率對遼寧省房價有微弱的正向作用,采取加息政策,房價仍然會上漲,調(diào)控基本失效。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry has not only developed vigorously since the reform, but also promoted China's economic growth as a pillar industry of the national economy. Although the real estate industry has brought considerable economic benefits, in recent years, the real estate prices continue to grow rapidly, but also bring serious social problems. At present, housing prices have become the focus of attention of the people in the country, how to restrain the rapid growth of real estate prices is also an important part of national macroeconomic control. Monetary policy is an important factor that affects the development of real estate industry. In order to maintain the stability of real estate market, the central bank adjusts the interest rate of deposit and loan and the money supply many times to carry on the macro-control to the house price. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influence of monetary policy on house price at the present stage, which can provide a certain reference value for the country to formulate relevant policies. This paper finds that the VAR model, as a dynamic model, mainly determines the dynamic structure of the economic system through the actual economic data rather than the economic theory, and gradually replaces the classical econometric model based on the theory. It is widely used to predict the relationship between macroeconomic variables using time series data. In this paper, the relationship between monetary policy and house price is analyzed by using vector autoregressive model. On the basis of summing up the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the influence of monetary policy on real estate prices and the monetary policies implemented in China's real estate market, this paper analyzes the relationship between monetary policy and house prices from the point of view of the theory of supply and demand of microeconomics. According to the transmission channel of the influence of monetary policy on house price in our country, interest rate and money supply are selected as the monetary policy indexes of this paper, and the research system of the relationship between monetary policy and house price is constructed. Taking Liaoning Province as an example, the quarterly data from 2003 to 2013 are collected, and the vector autoregressive regression model of loan interest rate, money supply, disposable income of urban residents and housing sales price is established by using EVIEWS7.0 software to carry out empirical research. In the analysis of VAR model, the impact of each index on real estate price is determined by impulse response function, and the contribution rate of each index to real estate price is compared by variance decomposition method. Through the study, it is found that there is a positive effect on housing prices by the interest rate of loans for more than 5 years, but this effect is weak; money supply has a long-term positive effect on house prices; the disposable income of residents also has a long-term positive effect on housing prices. And the early period fluctuates greatly. The most important contribution to housing price is the disposable income of residents, followed by money supply, and the contribution of interest rate of loans over 5 years is the least. The above conclusions can prove that reducing the supply of money supply can reduce the housing prices in Liaoning Province, and the money supply control is effective; the loan interest rate for more than five years has a weak positive effect on the housing prices in Liaoning Province, and the policy of raising interest rates is adopted. Housing prices will still rise, regulation and control is basically ineffective.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F822.0;F299.23;F224

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