本文選題：房地產(chǎn)周期 + 可持續(xù)增長�。� 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來隨著國家經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,以及居民收入和消費水平不斷提高,針對房地產(chǎn)市場的需求快速增長,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)更是以前所未有的速度快速成長,已經(jīng)成為我國國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。但房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的發(fā)展并不是一帆風順的,與宏觀經(jīng)濟運行過程類似,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)也客觀存在著周期波動現(xiàn)象。正視房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的周期波動現(xiàn)象,分析決定房地產(chǎn)周期波動的內(nèi)生因素和外部沖擊,提出應對周期波動的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)政策,對仍處于起步階段的我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)更是具有重要的現(xiàn)實指導意義。房地產(chǎn)市場的供求狀況、經(jīng)濟基本面、經(jīng)濟周期和國家的調(diào)控政策,都使房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)具有明顯的周期性特點。尤其是房地產(chǎn)市場是國家宏觀調(diào)控的重點領(lǐng)域,政府會根據(jù)經(jīng)濟運行狀況和行業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀實施促進或者調(diào)整政策,這也是我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)周期性波動的一個重要原因。同時房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)行業(yè)作為資金密集型的行業(yè),很多企業(yè)自有資金有限,但在市場誘導下利用財務杠桿等手段進行盲目擴張,將企業(yè)至于危地。因此,可以簡單概括房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的財務戰(zhàn)略目標,即促進發(fā)展和規(guī)避風險。 房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)如何克服行業(yè)自身的周期,兼顧效率與效果,這也應成為當前房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務戰(zhàn)略亟待解決的問題之一。因此房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的財務戰(zhàn)略應當既適應企業(yè)的發(fā)展需要,增加股東價值,又應當合理規(guī)避財務風險,尤其是在本行業(yè)周期性特征顯著的情況下,提倡可持續(xù)發(fā)展的財務理念應是解決上述問題的重要途徑。財務可持續(xù)增長模型作為房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務戰(zhàn)略決策和財務分析的一種有效工具,為企業(yè)擺脫增長速度困境,實現(xiàn)企業(yè)的穩(wěn)定持續(xù)發(fā)展方面起著重要的導向作用。 1.論文的主要內(nèi)容 本文分六個章節(jié)。第一章為導論,主要是本文的研究背景進行介紹、研究方法及思路,提出本文主要是結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的業(yè)務特點,特別調(diào)控政策影響和市場的劇烈波動來研究房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展及相應的財務成長戰(zhàn)略。第二章為文獻綜述,介紹了房地產(chǎn)周期的研究脈絡,并詳細介紹了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)周期,尤其是與財務風險及戰(zhàn)略相關(guān)的研究成果。 第三章和第四章是本文的主體部分,主要論述房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)周期性特點與可持續(xù)增長之間的關(guān)系。第三章首先簡要分析了房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的周期性,分析了房地產(chǎn)市場投資行為、政策調(diào)整、行為心理與市場周期的關(guān)系,并歸納整理了我國1979年至2009年三十年間的房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)控政策；最后討論了房地產(chǎn)周期與財務風險。第四章在回顧了可持續(xù)增長的相關(guān)文獻的基礎上,提出了針對周期性明顯的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè),可持續(xù)增長應當更加注重風險規(guī)避與有效增長,并針對目前流行的四種可持續(xù)增長模型進行了比較分析。 第五章為案例分析,主要結(jié)合對房地產(chǎn)周期所作的剖析,把萬科公司作為典型的事例,開展研究,對各個可持續(xù)增長模型開展驗證,從而得出結(jié)論：價值與增長的聯(lián)系是由基于自由現(xiàn)金流量的可持續(xù)增長模型建立的,對企業(yè)的增長管理具有實際的借鑒意義。第六章在前章從微觀角度分析房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)可持續(xù)增長的基礎上,從宏觀角度提出促進房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展健康、有序發(fā)展的若干建議,包括建立房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的市場預警機制和配套產(chǎn)業(yè)支撐體系,實施經(jīng)濟性與社會性相結(jié)合的管控措施,并繼續(xù)深入配套改革等等。 2.論文的主要觀點 考慮到房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)周期性和國家宏觀調(diào)控力度大的特點,我們不僅僅從企業(yè)增長規(guī)模和速度的角度來看待有效增長,或者是防止財務風險和資金流斷裂考慮問題,更應從價值增值的角度,建立價值與增長的聯(lián)系,使增長為價值服務。企業(yè)必須依靠對于內(nèi)外部環(huán)境的認真分析和理論測算,依據(jù)現(xiàn)有業(yè)務規(guī)模和未來增長水平,結(jié)合自有資金能力和融資能力,制定切實可行的財務戰(zhàn)略目標,實現(xiàn)企業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展�？沙掷m(xù)增長,尤其是基于穩(wěn)健現(xiàn)金流的可持續(xù)增長理念,應構(gòu)成了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)財務戰(zhàn)略目標的基本內(nèi)容。 基于現(xiàn)金流口徑可持續(xù)增長模型的最大意義在于將增長與價值創(chuàng)造聯(lián)系起來,途經(jīng)為現(xiàn)金流,手段為可持續(xù)增長：如果可持續(xù)增長為負,則毀損股東價值,只有可持續(xù)增長為正,企業(yè)才能得到價值增值。價值創(chuàng)造是企業(yè)成熟戰(zhàn)略實施的結(jié)果,可持續(xù)增長是企業(yè)成熟財務戰(zhàn)略落實的體現(xiàn)。只有成熟的財務戰(zhàn)略,同時兼顧企業(yè)長期利益與短期安排,穩(wěn)定企業(yè)盈利模式、資本結(jié)構(gòu)與股利分配,企業(yè)才能穩(wěn)定持久的增長,價值才能持續(xù)的創(chuàng)造。 3.論文的主要貢獻 第一、本文的選題立意在于研究房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的周期性對企業(yè)財務風險和財務戰(zhàn)略的影響,因為目前研究文獻主要是從經(jīng)濟學角度出發(fā)研究房地產(chǎn)周期,從財務戰(zhàn)略視角考量房地產(chǎn)周期對企業(yè)的影響研究較少,因此本文有一定新意和指導意義。 第二,本文采用的希金斯的模型與拉巴波特的模型進行數(shù)據(jù)比較分析了當前房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)增長的有效性問題。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)基于現(xiàn)金流口徑的可持續(xù)增長模型計算的可持續(xù)增長率波動更為激烈,與企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流的對應關(guān)系更為明確,并且鼓勵適度的投資,為以后增長做準備�；诂F(xiàn)金流口徑可持續(xù)增長模型的最大意義在于將增長與價值創(chuàng)造聯(lián)系起來,途經(jīng)為現(xiàn)金流,手段為可持續(xù)增長。 第三、本文的研究成果為后續(xù)的研究以及實務中房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)制定企業(yè)財務戰(zhàn)略提供了有意義的指導。本文分別從經(jīng)濟學與財務學的視角觀察問題、解決問題,交叉融合,互為借鑒,希望能夠為后續(xù)類似的研究起到拋磚引玉,提供思路的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years , with the development of the national economy , as well as the rising incomes and consumption of the real estate , the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of our national economy .

The financial strategy of real estate industry should not only meet the development needs of enterprises , increase shareholder value , but also reasonably avoid financial risks .

1 . Main contents of the paper

This paper is divided into six chapters . The first chapter is the introduction , mainly the research background of this paper , the research method and the thought , this paper mainly discusses the development of the real estate market and the corresponding financial growth strategy based on the business characteristics of the real estate industry , especially the policy influence and the violent fluctuation of the market . The second chapter provides a review of the literature , introduces the research pulse of the real estate cycle , and details the domestic and foreign research results about the real estate cycle , especially the financial risk and strategy .

The third chapter and the fourth chapter are the main parts of this paper , which mainly discuss the relationship between the periodic characteristics and the sustainable growth of the real estate industry . In chapter three , the periodicity of the real estate industry is analyzed briefly , and the relationship between the investment behavior , the policy adjustment , the behavior psychology and the market cycle of the real estate market is analyzed .
In the end , the real estate cycle and financial risk are discussed . In chapter 4 , on the basis of reviewing the relevant literatures of sustainable growth , the paper puts forward a real estate industry with obvious periodicity , and the sustainable growth should pay more attention to risk avoidance and effective growth , and the comparative analysis of the four sustainable growth models currently prevailing .

The fifth chapter is a case study , mainly combining the analysis of the real estate cycle , taking Vanke Company as a typical example , carrying out research , carrying out research on each sustainable growth model , and concluding that the relation between value and growth is established by the sustainable growth model based on free cash flow .

2 . Main viewpoints of the thesis

Considering the characteristics of the real estate industry ' s periodicity and the macro - control of the country , we should not only view the effective growth from the angle of the scale and speed of the growth of the enterprise , or prevent the financial risk and the capital flow from breaking into consideration .

The biggest significance of the sustainable growth model based on cash flow aperture is to connect the growth with the value creation , through the cash flow , the means are sustainable growth : if the sustainable growth is negative , the value added value of the enterprise can be obtained . The value creation is the result of the implementation of the mature strategy of the enterprise , and the sustainable growth is the implementation of the mature financial strategy of the enterprise . Only the mature financial strategy can ensure that the enterprise ' s long - term interests and short - term arrangements , stabilize the profit and profit pattern of the enterprise , the capital structure and the dividend distribution , the enterprise can stabilize the sustained growth , and the value can be continuously created .

3 . Main contributions of the paper

First , the thesis aims to study the influence of the periodicity of the real estate industry on the financial risk and financial strategy of the enterprise , because the current research literature mainly studies the real estate period from the perspective of economics , and considers the influence of the real estate period to the enterprise from the perspective of financial strategy . Therefore , this paper has some new meaning and guiding significance .

Secondly , the paper compares the model of the Humpkins and the model of Rabbah , and analyzes the validity of the current real estate industry . The research shows that the sustainable growth rate of the sustainable growth model based on the cash flow caliber is more intense , and the corresponding relationship with the cash flow of the enterprise is more explicit , and the appropriate investment is encouraged to prepare for the future growth . The biggest significance of the sustainable growth model based on the cash flow caliber is to link the growth with the value creation , through the cash flow , the means are sustainable growth .

Third , the research results provide meaningful guidance for the follow - up research and the real estate industry in the real estate industry . In this paper , we study the problems , solve problems , cross - fusion and mutual reference from the perspective of economics and finance .

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4

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本文編號：1828874