本文選題：新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體　切入點(diǎn)：資本賬戶開放　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)80年代末,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體開啟了資本賬戶開放的歷程。資本賬戶開放猶如一把雙刃劍,可能帶來跨境資本流動的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),由于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的金融市場發(fā)展程度普遍較低,金融脆弱性的“原罪”使其更易遭受金融危機(jī)的沖擊。為了防范系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的擴(kuò)散,維護(hù)金融穩(wěn)定,運(yùn)用宏觀審慎政策工具干預(yù)資本流動的順周期性成為必然。本文在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,以印度和智利為例,闡述了其資本賬戶開放進(jìn)程和宏觀審慎政策工具實(shí)踐,在具備一定條件的基礎(chǔ)上謹(jǐn)慎選擇資本賬戶開放的模式、次序有助于資本賬戶自由化的順利推進(jìn)。資本賬戶開放后容易引發(fā)大規(guī)模的國際資本流入,而且這種資本流入具有順周期性,為了降低順周期性,韓國、印度和智利為代表的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體都開發(fā)了一系列具有本國特色的宏觀審慎政策工具箱。但是由于現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)和評估方法的局限,對宏觀審慎政策工具的有效性研究還不成熟,本文從定性角度對三國的工具有效性進(jìn)行分析,認(rèn)為貸款價(jià)值比(LTV)、債務(wù)收入比(DTI)等信貸類工具主要是調(diào)節(jié)房地產(chǎn)市場上的房價(jià)和杠桿率波動,逆周期資本要求和貸款損失撥備等資本類工具則主要是約束銀行的信貸規(guī)模、增強(qiáng)銀行抵御系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力,使用頻繁的準(zhǔn)備金率則是為了調(diào)節(jié)金融市場的流動性。最后,中國當(dāng)前不應(yīng)加快資本賬戶開放,應(yīng)從控制短期外債、推進(jìn)匯率和利率市場化改革方面入手積極應(yīng)對資本賬戶開放帶來的跨境資本流動風(fēng)險(xiǎn),充實(shí)宏觀審慎政策工具箱,加強(qiáng)宏觀審慎的全球合作。
[Abstract]:In the late 1980 s, emerging economies began the process of opening their capital accounts.The opening of capital account is like a double-edged sword, which may bring the risk of cross-border capital flow. Because of the low development degree of financial markets in emerging economies, the "original sin" of financial fragility makes it more vulnerable to financial crisis.In order to prevent the spread of systemic risk and maintain financial stability, it is inevitable to use macroprudential policy tools to intervene in the procyclicality of capital flow.On the basis of theoretical analysis, taking India and Chile as examples, this paper expounds the process of capital account opening and the practice of macroprudential policy tools. On the basis of certain conditions, this paper carefully selects the mode of capital account opening.Sequencing is conducive to the smooth advancement of capital account liberalization.After the opening of the capital account, it is easy to trigger large-scale international capital inflows, and this kind of capital inflow is pro-cyclical. In order to reduce the pro-cyclical, South Korea,Emerging economies represented by India and Chile have developed a set of macro-prudential policy toolkits with their own characteristics.However, due to the limitations of existing data and assessment methods, the effectiveness of macro-prudential policy tools is not yet mature. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the three countries from a qualitative perspective.It is considered that credit instruments such as loan value ratio (LTV), debt income ratio (DTI) and so on are mainly to regulate the fluctuation of house prices and leverage ratio in the real estate market, while capital instruments such as countercyclical capital requirements and loan loss provisions are mainly used to constrain the credit scale of banks.To increase banks' ability to withstand systemic risk, frequent reserve requirements are used to regulate liquidity in financial markets.Finally, China should not speed up the opening of the capital account at present, but should actively deal with the risk of cross-border capital flows brought about by the opening of the capital account and enrich the toolbox of macro-prudential policies by controlling short-term foreign debt and promoting market-oriented reform of the exchange rate and interest rate.Strengthen macroprudential global cooperation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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