本文選題：城中村改造　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別　出處：《湘潭大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：城中村是我國(guó)城市化發(fā)展從初期外延式擴(kuò)張向中后期內(nèi)涵式發(fā)展的結(jié)果，也是城市化發(fā)展從初級(jí)向高級(jí)遞進(jìn)的必然趨勢(shì)。由于城中村的存在牽涉到多方的利益，因此對(duì)其所進(jìn)行的改造也由于多方利益難以實(shí)現(xiàn)均衡而面臨諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理在深圳坪山湯坑項(xiàng)目前期策劃中的應(yīng)用為研究對(duì)象，站在房地產(chǎn)商卓越集團(tuán)的角度，從對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理及城中村內(nèi)涵出發(fā)，通過分析城中村改造風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理特點(diǎn)，按照風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)的思路具體探討了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理在坪山湯坑項(xiàng)目前期策劃階段的應(yīng)用。 在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方面，文章首先對(duì)坪山湯坑項(xiàng)目及卓越集團(tuán)參與舊城改造的基本情況進(jìn)行了介紹，對(duì)坪山湯坑項(xiàng)目在前期策劃階段可能遇到的政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、社會(huì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、公眾干預(yù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及管理與技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的具體內(nèi)容進(jìn)行識(shí)別分析，據(jù)此構(gòu)建了坪山湯坑項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的第二環(huán)節(jié)就是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)，文章首先借助層次分析法對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行定量分析，明確各指標(biāo)對(duì)整個(gè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響程度，進(jìn)而運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，評(píng)估結(jié)果顯示該項(xiàng)目處于中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平，管理者必須對(duì)項(xiàng)目開發(fā)中將會(huì)遇到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行合理預(yù)防；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的第三環(huán)節(jié)就是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)，結(jié)合前文對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的分析與評(píng)價(jià)，文章提出從政策、市場(chǎng)、財(cái)務(wù)、公眾干預(yù)和管理與技術(shù)六個(gè)方面制定預(yù)防措施，，從而減輕各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素對(duì)湯坑項(xiàng)目可能產(chǎn)生的影響，提高項(xiàng)目的成功率。 本文的研究拓展了項(xiàng)目管理理論的實(shí)踐應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域，豐富了城中村改造理論的體系范圍。對(duì)于深圳卓越集團(tuán)來說，通過對(duì)坪山湯坑改造項(xiàng)目前期策劃階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別分析，能夠幫助其準(zhǔn)確、客觀地判斷項(xiàng)目的價(jià)值，科學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)項(xiàng)目未來可能面臨的各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及由此產(chǎn)生的影響，減少投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和盲目性。此外，由于本文是站在城中村改造主體——房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的角度來探討城中村改造項(xiàng)目在前期策劃階段的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作，因此文章研究的思路與方法也能夠給其他參與城中村改造項(xiàng)目的房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目管理者提供一定的借鑒和參考，幫助其更好地提升項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平。
[Abstract]:The village in the city is the result of the development of urbanization in China from the initial extension to the middle and late stages, and it is also the inevitable trend of the urbanization development from the primary to the higher. The existence of the village in the city involves the interests of many parties. Therefore, the transformation is faced with many risks because it is difficult to achieve balance in various interests. This paper takes the application of risk management in the pre-planning of the Pingshan Tangkeng Project in Shenzhen as the research object and stands at the angle of the excellent Group of Real Estate developers. Starting from the connotation of risk management and village in city, this paper discusses the application of risk management in the early planning stage of Pingshan Tangkeng Project according to the ideas of risk identification, risk evaluation and risk response through analyzing the characteristics of risk management in the transformation of urban villages. In the aspect of risk identification, the article first introduces the basic situation of Pingshan Tangkeng project and the excellent group participating in the old city transformation, and introduces the policy risk, market risk and financial risk that the Pingshan Tangkeng project may encounter in the early planning stage. The social risk, the public intervention risk and the concrete content of management and technical risk are identified and analyzed, according to which the risk evaluation index system of Pingshan Tangkeng project is constructed. The second link of risk management is risk evaluation. In this paper, the risk index is analyzed quantitatively with the help of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the risk level of the project is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The evaluation results show that the project is at a moderate risk level, and the manager must take reasonable precautions against the risks that will be encountered in the development of the project, and the third link of risk management is risk response, which is based on the analysis and evaluation of the risk factors mentioned above. This paper puts forward the preventive measures from six aspects of policy, market, finance, public intervention and management and technology, so as to reduce the possible impact of various risk factors on the Tangkeng project and improve the success rate of the project. The research in this paper expands the practical application field of project management theory and enriches the system scope of urban village reconstruction theory. For Shenzhen excellent Group, through the identification and analysis of the risk in the early planning stage of Pingshan Tangkeng Reconstruction Project, It can help it accurately and objectively judge the value of the project, scientifically predict the various risks that the project may face in the future and its impact, and reduce the risk and blindness of the investment. Because this article is standing in the city village transformation mainstay-real estate developer's angle to discuss the city village transformation project in the early planning stage of the risk management work, Therefore, the ideas and methods of this paper can also provide some reference and reference for other real estate project managers involved in urban village reconstruction projects, and help them to better improve the level of project risk management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27

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