本文選題：房地產(chǎn)　切入點：收益貼現(xiàn)模型　出處：《東華大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)進(jìn)入調(diào)整時期,增速趨緩,區(qū)域化明顯。合肥作為安徽省省會,長三角城市集團(tuán)副中心城市,也是重要的國家級研究和教育基地,現(xiàn)代化制造業(yè)基地和綜合交通樞紐,其在研究中小城市房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)中具有代表意義。房地產(chǎn)作為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的支柱行業(yè)之一,一方面可以直接促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長,帶動相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,另一方面可以改善居民居住和生活條件,增加國家財政收入。同時估值研究可以應(yīng)用于房地產(chǎn)的收購和兼并環(huán)節(jié);利于管理者進(jìn)行針對性的管理調(diào)整,實現(xiàn)公司價值最大化;利于投資者做出相對理性的投資決策;利于政府部門出臺相應(yīng)的法律法規(guī),引導(dǎo)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)健康發(fā)展;利于證券市場的穩(wěn)定。本文主要針對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀和未來趨勢,分析房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)現(xiàn)在存在的問題,闡述為什么選擇房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)進(jìn)行估值。在闡述估值常用的相對估值模型、期權(quán)定價模型以及收益貼現(xiàn)模型的理論和適用性的基礎(chǔ)上,將三者進(jìn)行比較,得出三種估值方法的優(yōu)劣勢,結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)估值特點,并分析為什么選擇收益貼現(xiàn)法進(jìn)行估值。在合肥城建的現(xiàn)狀和未來趨勢的基礎(chǔ)上,闡述估值原因,分析為什么要對其進(jìn)行價值評估,最后利用已選定的估值模型對其估值。將估值結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比分析,得出相關(guān)結(jié)論。通過對合肥城建公司的估值,發(fā)現(xiàn)在我國證券市場上市的公司處于有效估值環(huán)境下,目標(biāo)公司的股票價格基本能夠反映股票的內(nèi)在價值。從2008-2014年公司股價主要在10元左右波動,在相關(guān)因素的影響下,2015年開始,公司股價開始在7元左右至30元左右波動,考慮到公司的中小城市房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)頭地位,以及近兩年處于快速發(fā)展階段,“庫存”問題不大,結(jié)合國家政策的大力支持,公司管理者應(yīng)該積極拓展市場,提高發(fā)展目標(biāo),制定相關(guān)戰(zhàn)略,促進(jìn)合肥城建的發(fā)展。對投資者而言,合肥城建具有一定的投資價值。
[Abstract]:At present, the real estate industry in our country has entered a period of adjustment, the growth rate has slowed down and the regionalization is obvious. Hefei, as the provincial capital of Anhui Province and the sub-central city of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Group, is also an important national research and education base. The modern manufacturing base and comprehensive transportation hub are of great significance in the study of the real estate industry in small and medium-sized cities. As one of the pillar industries in China's economic development, real estate on the one hand can directly promote economic growth. To promote the development of related industries, on the other hand, it can improve the living and living conditions of residents, increase the national financial revenue. At the same time, valuation research can be applied to the acquisition and merger of real estate; it is conducive for managers to carry out targeted management adjustments. To maximize the value of the company, to facilitate investors to make relatively rational investment decisions, to facilitate government departments to issue relevant laws and regulations to guide the healthy development of the real estate industry; This paper aims at the present situation and future trend of the real estate industry, analyzes the existing problems in the real estate industry, and explains why the real estate industry is chosen for valuation. On the basis of the theory and applicability of the option pricing model and the income discount model, the advantages and disadvantages of the three valuation methods are obtained, combining with the real estate industry valuation characteristics. On the basis of the present situation and future trend of Hefei urban construction, this paper expounds the reasons of valuation, and analyzes why it should be valued. Finally, by using the selected valuation model, the paper compares and analyzes the valuation results and draws the relevant conclusions. Through the valuation of Hefei City Construction Company, it is found that the listed companies in the stock market of our country are in the effective valuation environment. The stock price of the target company can basically reflect the intrinsic value of the stock. From 2008-2014, the company's stock price mainly fluctuated around 10 yuan. Under the influence of related factors, the company's stock price began to fluctuate from about 7 yuan to 30 yuan on 2015. Considering the leading position of the company in small and medium-sized cities, and the fact that the company is in a stage of rapid development in the last two years, the problem of "inventory" is not big. Combined with the strong support of the state policy, company managers should actively expand the market and raise their development goals. To formulate relevant strategies to promote the development of Hefei urban construction. For investors, Hefei urban construction has certain investment value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51;F299.233.42

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本文編號：1639501