發(fā)布時間：2018-03-13 02:03

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn)　切入點：上市公司　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國經(jīng)濟進入調(diào)整期,受到宏觀經(jīng)濟整體下行態(tài)勢的影響,中國實體經(jīng)濟運行壓力加大,公司生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營困難加重。在這種大環(huán)境背景下,我國許多行業(yè)財務(wù)安全指數(shù)嚴(yán)重下滑,而房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)最為嚴(yán)重,并且波動較大。如果房地產(chǎn)上市公司出現(xiàn)財務(wù)危機,不僅影響自身的生存和發(fā)展,還給投資者、債權(quán)人等帶來損失。因此,在一定程度上昭示了房地產(chǎn)公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警的迫切性及必要性,尤其是市場競爭激烈程度增加,向房地產(chǎn)上市公司提出了高度重視公司財務(wù)安全的要求。 本文的研究目的是構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)、科學(xué)的分析模型,能夠準(zhǔn)確、全面地對房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機進行預(yù)警研究,從而全面把握經(jīng)營過程中的復(fù)雜風(fēng)險,做出正確戰(zhàn)略決策,防患于未然,最大限度地實現(xiàn)財務(wù)危機的可控性和可預(yù)測性。通過對國內(nèi)外有關(guān)公司財務(wù)危機研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合中國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)和公司的特點,從財務(wù)危機理論及方法、預(yù)警模型、模型應(yīng)用和財務(wù)危機控制措施等方面提出房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警模型建立及應(yīng)用的研究思路。 首先,綜述國內(nèi)外關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警理論的研究現(xiàn)狀,分析財務(wù)危機與財務(wù)風(fēng)險之間的關(guān)系,提出本文的研究內(nèi)容及技術(shù)路線。 其次,通過綜合分析公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警常用的方法,提出以支持向量機理論為基礎(chǔ)的房地產(chǎn)財務(wù)危機預(yù)警模型建立的新思路,并重點闡述支持向量機及其相關(guān)分析理論。 然后,根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警模型的建立流程,逐步分析房地產(chǎn)上市公司、財務(wù)危機預(yù)警模型指標(biāo)體系以及非線性映射關(guān)系的建立,在此基礎(chǔ)上,提出房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警模型。 最后,在房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警模型建立的基礎(chǔ)上,選定研究對象,根據(jù)預(yù)警模型的指標(biāo)體系,收集相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對預(yù)警模型進行實證應(yīng)用,并對指標(biāo)與財務(wù)危機情況進行關(guān)聯(lián)度分析,提出控制措施。
[Abstract]:With the China economy entered a period of adjustment, affected by macroeconomic overall downward trend, operation pressure China real economy increase, difficulties in production and management company increased. In this background, the financial safety index in our country many industry in severe decline, and the real estate industry is most serious, and the fluctuations. If the real estate listed companies the financial crisis, not only affects the survival and development of their own to investors, creditors and other losses. Therefore, to a certain extent, reveals the necessity and urgency of the financial crisis early warning of the Real Estate Company, especially to increase the extent of market competition, real estate listed companies proposed attaches great importance to the company's financial security requirements.
The purpose of this study is to construct a system, scientific analysis model, to accurately and comprehensively on the real estate listed company financial crisis early warning research, in order to fully grasp the complexity of the risk management process, make correct strategic decision, nip in the bud, to maximize the financial crisis controllability and predictability through the base. Study on the financial crisis on the domestic and foreign companies, combined with the characteristics of the real estate industry and Chinese company, from the financial crisis early-warning model, theory and method, puts forward the research ideas of real estate listed company financial crisis early warning model establishment and application of the model and application of financial crisis control measures.
First, it summarizes the research status of financial crisis early warning theory of real estate listed companies both at home and abroad, analyzes the relationship between financial crisis and financial risk, and puts forward the research contents and technical line of this paper.
Secondly, by comprehensively analyzing the commonly used methods of financial crisis early warning, a new idea of establishing a real estate financial crisis early warning model based on support vector machine theory is put forward, and the support vector machine and its correlation analysis theory are emphasized.
Then, according to the establishment process of real estate listed company's financial crisis early warning model, we gradually analyze the establishment of index system and nonlinear mapping relationship of real estate listed companies, the financial crisis early warning model, and on this basis, we propose a financial distress prediction model for real estate listed companies.
Finally, based on the listed company's financial crisis early warning model in real estate, the research object, according to the index system of the early warning model, collect relevant data, an empirical application of the early warning model, and the analysis of correlation between index and financial crisis situation, puts forward the control measures.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.233.42

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