發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-09 00:35

  本文選題：住宅　切入點(diǎn)：增量市場　出處：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：學(xué)者認(rèn)為住宅市場可分為增量市場和存量市場，且兩者之間可以形成互動，兩者的互動發(fā)展能幫助人民改善居住環(huán)境，保障住宅市場的健康發(fā)展。目前高房價(jià)逐漸成為社會關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題，面對日益上漲的房價(jià)，許多中低收入階層購買能力不足，究其原因是存量市場的不發(fā)達(dá)，以及增量市場中存在投機(jī)行為，導(dǎo)致剛性需求還有部分未得到滿足。因而研究增量與存量市場的互動機(jī)理就很有必要，能夠幫助政府對住宅市場制定政策調(diào)控起到參考建議。 本文先分析增量與存量市場的系統(tǒng)組成，將其分為三個基本子系統(tǒng)、六個影響因素子系統(tǒng)，并對其各個系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行分析，運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)原理及方法，建立增量與存量市場互動機(jī)理的仿真模型，運(yùn)用Vensim PLE系統(tǒng)動態(tài)仿真模擬軟件，以西安市2002年至2013年的住宅市場的數(shù)據(jù)作為模型的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)，仿真預(yù)測了西安市2014年至2020年的住宅增量與存量市場的發(fā)展趨勢，對模型反復(fù)的進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)后，發(fā)現(xiàn)模型誤差在5%之內(nèi)，然后通過改變存量房的首付比例、貸款年限、貸款利率優(yōu)惠及交易稅費(fèi)等宏觀政策，模擬調(diào)控政策對增量與存量市場的影響，研究得出當(dāng)增量房價(jià)格過高時(shí)，可以通過增加存量市場的交易，調(diào)節(jié)住宅市場的供求關(guān)系，當(dāng)增量房的空置率較高時(shí)，可以通過減少存量市場的交易，促進(jìn)增量市場的交易，實(shí)現(xiàn)住宅市場的供需平衡。并提出降低存量市場的交易成本、加強(qiáng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)對存量房交易的支持力度、規(guī)范存量房交易的中介以及降低土地成本的盤活存量市場的調(diào)控政策，促進(jìn)增量市場和存量市場的協(xié)調(diào)互動發(fā)展，，使得房地產(chǎn)市場健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Scholars believe that the housing market can be divided into incremental market and stock market, and the interaction between the two can be formed, the interactive development of the two can help people to improve the living environment. To ensure the healthy development of the housing market. At present, high housing prices have gradually become a hot issue of social concern. Faced with the rising housing prices, many low- and middle-income people have insufficient purchasing power, which is due to the underdevelopment of the stock market. Therefore, it is necessary to study the interactive mechanism of increment and stock market, which can help the government to make policy regulation and control of housing market. This paper first analyzes the system composition of increment and stock market, divides it into three basic subsystems, six influencing factor subsystems, and analyzes each system, and applies the system dynamics principle and method. A simulation model of the interaction mechanism between increment and stock market is established. The dynamic simulation software of Vensim PLE system is used. The data of Xi'an residential market from 2002 to 2013 are taken as the basic data of the model. The simulation predicts the development trend of housing increment and stock market in Xi'an from 2014 to 2020. After repeated tests on the model, the model error is found to be within 5%, and then by changing the down payment ratio of the stock house, the loan period, By simulating the influence of adjustment policies on the increment and stock market, it is concluded that when the price of incremental housing is too high, the supply and demand relationship of the housing market can be adjusted by increasing the transaction in the stock market. When the vacancy rate of the increment house is high, the transaction of the incremental market can be promoted by reducing the transaction in the stock market, and the balance of supply and demand of the housing market can be realized. Strengthening financial institutions' support for stock housing transactions, standardizing the intermediary of stock housing transactions and activating stock market control policies that reduce land costs, and promoting the coordinated and interactive development of the incremental market and the stock market. Make the real estate market healthy and sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;N941.3

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本文編號：1586256