本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格　切入點(diǎn)：貨幣供應(yīng)量　出處：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：“居者有其屋”這句古語早已揭示住房乃民眾的基礎(chǔ)性要求。隨著1998年房改大幕的拉開,中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)才開始真正意義上的發(fā)展,短短十幾年中成就矚目。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是一個(gè)需要多種產(chǎn)業(yè)支撐和協(xié)助發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè),因此涉及龐大的上下游產(chǎn)業(yè),龐大的體系一方面對(duì)GDP具有較強(qiáng)的貢獻(xiàn),另一方面也會(huì)帶來隱患和矛盾。房?jī)r(jià)關(guān)系到百姓日�；A(chǔ)性需求,但房?jī)r(jià)走勢(shì)卻一直火熱,盡管政府一直在不斷調(diào)控房?jī)r(jià),但仍未能有效抑制其火熱程度,房?jī)r(jià)問題越來越被居民所重視。對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的影響因素中,金融因素不可或缺的首當(dāng)其沖,本文重點(diǎn)研究金融因素對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響。理論方面,選取國(guó)內(nèi)主要金融因素貨幣供給量、利率,以及國(guó)外主要金融因素匯率,分別一一探討這些因素與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的定性關(guān)系與定量關(guān)系。在定性探討中不僅從微觀角度分析這些金融因素如何通過供需力量對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生影響,還從宏觀角度分析這些因素對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的影響。在定量分析中,采用時(shí)間序列分析方法,對(duì)金融因素劃分為國(guó)內(nèi)與國(guó)際兩部分研究,最后在定性和定量分析的基礎(chǔ)上,提出建設(shè)性意見。結(jié)論表明:房?jī)r(jià)與三個(gè)金融因素之間擁有長(zhǎng)期并且穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系,三個(gè)金融因素對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格均有貢獻(xiàn)并且貨幣供給量的貢獻(xiàn)最大。國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)證部分研究發(fā)現(xiàn):貨幣供應(yīng)量與貸款利率都是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的格蘭杰原因,并且貨幣供應(yīng)量與房?jī)r(jià)成正向關(guān)系,五年期以上貸款利率與房?jī)r(jià)短期呈正向關(guān)系,長(zhǎng)期呈負(fù)向關(guān)系。國(guó)際因素實(shí)證部分研究發(fā)現(xiàn):匯率與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格存在格蘭杰關(guān)系,人民幣升值預(yù)期會(huì)伴隨國(guó)際游資流入國(guó)內(nèi),投入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),價(jià)隨之上漲。協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)表明:國(guó)內(nèi)金融因素與國(guó)際金融對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響都具有長(zhǎng)期性。主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新之處:本文考察了多個(gè)變量對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響,實(shí)證部分劃分國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)與國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng),分別選取時(shí)間跨度較大的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用了多種檢驗(yàn)方法進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。討論金融因素對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響研,可以為國(guó)家宏觀調(diào)控提供參考性依據(jù),對(duì)促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)、保持社會(huì)穩(wěn)定具有一定的意義。
[Abstract]:The old saying "Home ownership" has long revealed that housing is the basic requirement of the public. With the opening of the curtain of housing reform in 1998, the real estate industry in China began to develop in a real sense. The real estate industry is an industry that needs a variety of industries to support and assist in development, so it involves a huge upstream and downstream industries. On the one hand, a huge system has a strong contribution to GDP. On the other hand, there will also be hidden dangers and contradictions. Housing prices are related to the basic daily needs of the common people, but the trend of house prices has been hot. Although the government has been constantly regulating and controlling house prices, it has still failed to effectively curb their hot degree. The problem of house price is paid more and more attention to by residents. Among the influencing factors of house price, the financial factor is the most important one. This paper focuses on the influence of financial factor on the real estate price of our country. Select the main domestic financial factors money supply, interest rate, as well as foreign major financial factors exchange rate, The qualitative and quantitative relationships between these factors and real estate prices are discussed respectively. In the qualitative analysis, we not only analyze how these financial factors influence real estate prices through the power of supply and demand, but also analyze how these financial factors influence real estate prices from a micro perspective. In the quantitative analysis, the financial factors are divided into two parts: domestic and international. Finally, on the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis, The conclusion shows that there is a long-term and stable relationship between house prices and three financial factors. Three financial factors contribute to the real estate price and the money supply is the most important one. The domestic empirical study shows that money supply and loan interest rate are the Granger reasons for the fluctuation of real estate price. Moreover, the money supply has a positive relationship with the house price, the interest rate of the loan over five years has a positive relationship with the house price in the short term, and the long-term relationship is negative. The empirical study of international factors shows that there is a Granger relationship between the exchange rate and the real estate price. The appreciation of the RMB is expected to be accompanied by the inflow of international hot money into the domestic and real estate market. The cointegration test shows that both domestic financial factors and international finance have long-term effects on real estate prices. The main innovations are as follows: this paper examines the effects of multiple variables on real estate prices. The empirical part divides the domestic financial market and the international financial market, selects the data with a long span of time, and uses a variety of test methods to verify the impact of the financial factors on the real estate prices, and discusses the impact of financial factors on the real estate prices. It can provide reference basis for national macro-control, and has certain significance to promote national economy and maintain social stability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.1;F831

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