本文關(guān)鍵詞：南昌市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素研究　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 影響因素 逐步回歸法 南昌市 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展不僅與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展休戚相關(guān),而且還與老百姓的生活緊密聯(lián)系。而近年來(lái)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在大發(fā)展的同時(shí)也出現(xiàn)了較多問題,其中房?jī)r(jià)上漲過猛、居民購(gòu)房壓力較大、部分區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)投資過熱等問題尤其突出。南昌市作為京九鐵路線上唯一的省會(huì)城市,其房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)也得到了快速發(fā)展,近十多年來(lái)房?jī)r(jià)一路攀升。因此,研究南昌市房?jī)r(jià)影響因素,挖掘出房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)本因,對(duì)于加快南昌市經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè),保持房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展具有重大意義。 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素紛繁復(fù)雜,目前沒有學(xué)者專家對(duì)具體的南昌市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素進(jìn)行全面系統(tǒng)的研究。本文以2000—2012年南昌市房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),首先從房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的理論出發(fā),分析其特點(diǎn)、構(gòu)成以及形成、傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。再次根據(jù)南昌市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)歷史價(jià)格走勢(shì)與自身發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,從政策、成本、供求狀況、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)及其他因素等六大方面來(lái)進(jìn)行全方位多角度的定性探討。在定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,充分考慮數(shù)據(jù)的可獲取性,選取能科學(xué)量化的影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,建立多元回歸模型并對(duì)結(jié)果的有效性進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)、改善,最終得出真正影響南昌市房?jī)r(jià)的具體因素為貨幣供應(yīng)量、土地價(jià)格以及心理預(yù)期價(jià)格。最后根據(jù)定性與定量分析的結(jié)果,總結(jié)出四條相關(guān)結(jié)論,并針對(duì)當(dāng)前南昌市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀,給出六條關(guān)于政府調(diào)控方面的建議。 本文的研究結(jié)果對(duì)于把握南昌房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)以及地方政府進(jìn)行房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格宏觀調(diào)控都有一定的參考價(jià)值,但限于篇幅與筆者研究水平,再加上數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑誤差以及某些因素?zé)o法量化的原因,導(dǎo)致最終模型存在一定的不足之處。在未來(lái)的研究中,我會(huì)想辦法進(jìn)一步的努力完善。
[Abstract]:The development of real estate is not only closely related to the development of national economy, but also closely related to the life of ordinary people. Nanchang, the only provincial capital city on the Beijing-Kowloon railway line, is facing problems such as house prices rising too fast, residents under pressure to buy houses, and real estate investment overheating in parts of the region. Its real estate market has also been rapid development, housing prices have been rising in the past decade. Therefore, the study of the factors affecting housing prices in Nanchang City, unearthed the reasons for the fluctuations of house prices, for speeding up the economic construction of Nanchang City. It is of great significance to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market. The influence factors of real estate price are complicated. At present, there are no scholars and experts to carry out a comprehensive and systematic study on the specific factors affecting real estate prices in Nanchang. This paper is based on the relevant data of real estate in Nanchang from 2000 to 2012. First, from the theory of real estate prices, analysis of its characteristics, composition and formation, transmission mechanism. Thirdly, according to the historical price trend of Nanchang real estate market and its own development status, from the policy, cost, supply and demand situation. Economic, social and other factors and other six aspects to carry out a comprehensive and multi-angle qualitative discussion. On the basis of qualitative analysis, fully consider the availability of data. Select the scientific quantitative factors for empirical research, establish a multivariate regression model and test the effectiveness of the results, improve, and finally get the real impact of Nanchang City housing price is the specific factor of money supply. Finally, according to the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper summarizes four relevant conclusions, and aims at the current situation of real estate market in Nanchang. Six suggestions on government regulation and control are given. The results of this paper have some reference value to grasp the fluctuation of house prices in Nanchang and the macro-control of real estate prices by local governments, but limited to the length and the author's research level. In addition, the statistical error of data and some factors can not be quantified, resulting in the final model has some shortcomings. In the future research, I will find ways to further improve.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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