本文關(guān)鍵詞：預期對中國商品住宅市場的影響研究　出處：《山西財經(jīng)大學》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 預期 商品住宅市場 商品住宅價格 住房宏觀調(diào)控 預期回報

【摘要】：預期直接影響著商品住宅市場的運行軌跡，能否揭示二者之間的本質(zhì)聯(lián)系關(guān)系到市場參與者投資、消費決策的成敗，關(guān)系到政府住房宏觀調(diào)控的效果，也關(guān)系到整個國民經(jīng)濟的正常運行與社會的和諧穩(wěn)定。本文從預期與商品住宅價格的關(guān)系、預期與住房宏觀調(diào)控效果的關(guān)系、商品住宅價格與預期回報的關(guān)系、商品住宅市場預期的形成與擴散四個方面入手，探析了預期對中國商品住宅市場的影響機理。主要的研究工作如下： 1．基于預期異質(zhì)性的商品住宅價格模型構(gòu)建與實證研究 根據(jù)市場特點和交易者行為差異，將金融市場的噪聲交易模型進行了符合商品住宅市場的重新設(shè)定，首次采用世代交迭模型的跨期決策分析方法，構(gòu)建了包含理性套利者、動量交易者、信息觀察者、基本面分析者4類異質(zhì)交易者預期的商品住宅價格模型；在考慮預期異質(zhì)性情形下，采用系統(tǒng)仿真方法探析了異質(zhì)交易者的重要行為參數(shù)對住宅價格的單獨影響和疊加影響；在不考慮預期異質(zhì)性情形下，將上述模型轉(zhuǎn)化為一般的含有預期的住宅價格模型，并選取中國30個�。ㄊ�、自治區(qū)）商品住宅市場的省際面板數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證檢驗，由于模型建立過程中引入了更符合經(jīng)驗事實的微觀基礎(chǔ)，而又不脫離傳統(tǒng)的宏觀基本面分析方法，從而可以更好地揭示預期與商品住宅價格這兩種隨機波動序列的本質(zhì)聯(lián)系。 2．基于環(huán)境異質(zhì)性的住房宏觀調(diào)控模型構(gòu)建與實證研究 將預期模式與城市的差異性引入了商品住宅供給和需求調(diào)控的分析框架，在住宅存量—流量模型基礎(chǔ)上分別建立了考慮異質(zhì)預期和異質(zhì)城市政策實施環(huán)境的住房供給調(diào)控動態(tài)模型和住房需求調(diào)控模型；對中國35個大中城市住房宏觀調(diào)控的實施效應(yīng)進行了量化研究、比較分析和系統(tǒng)仿真，識別出了有效的政策工具，模擬了異質(zhì)環(huán)境下商品住宅市場的運行軌跡，為政府出臺具有精準性、有效性的調(diào)控政策提供了有力依據(jù)。 3．房價與理性（適應(yīng)性）預期回報的非線性雙重時序模型構(gòu)建與實證研究 在房地產(chǎn)回報的非線性雙重時序評估模型基礎(chǔ)上，首次將預期引入了房價與回報非線性關(guān)系的研究框架，將商品住宅價格與預期回報的隨機序列視為一個隨機系統(tǒng)，利用現(xiàn)代隨機系統(tǒng)理論方法進行了系統(tǒng)辨識，構(gòu)建了可以更好地描述商品住宅市場隨機機制的房價與理性（適應(yīng)性）預期回報的非線性雙重時序模型；首次給出了量化不可觀測的預期回報的方法，并在中國35個大中城市進行了預期回報評估的實證分析，識別出了具有投資價值的城市和地區(qū)，為市場參與者的投資消費決策提供了合理的評估方法和結(jié)論。 4．商品住宅市場預期擴散模型構(gòu)建與仿真研究 首次將創(chuàng)新擴散理論與方法應(yīng)用于住宅市場預期的研究，對傳染病擴散模型與Bass模型進行了符合住宅市場現(xiàn)狀的重新設(shè)定，對僅存在口頭交流等內(nèi)部影響和同時存在大眾傳媒等外部影響兩種情形下的預期擴散過程進行了理論描述、建�？坍嬇c系統(tǒng)仿真，識別出了兩種條件下影響預期擴散的關(guān)鍵因素，探析了預期的擴散規(guī)律，，為預期的培養(yǎng)、管理活動提供了決策參考。 本文的研究工作有助于深入認識商品住宅市場的運行規(guī)律，為現(xiàn)實中的房價波動、調(diào)控低效、需求非理性增長等問題提供了更多的解釋與解決手段，為政府、房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)和購房者的行為決策提供了科學依據(jù)，也為一般的帶預期的非線性隨機系統(tǒng)的理論與應(yīng)用研究提供了一種嶄新的思路。
[Abstract]:Is expected to directly affect the running track of the commercial housing market, whether promulgates the two nature of the contact relationship to market participants investment and consumption decisions related to the success or failure of the government housing macro-control effect, but also related to the harmony and stability of the normal operation of the entire national economy and society. This paper discusses the relation between expectations and the price of commodity houses the relationship between expectations and the housing macro-control effect, the relationship between price and the expected return of the commercial housing, commercial housing market is expected to form the four aspects of the diffusion of the expected impact on China residential commodity field mechanism. The main research work is as follows:
1. building and empirical research on commodity housing price model based on expected heterogeneity
According to different market characteristics and behavior of traders, noise trading model in financial markets are re set in line with the commercial housing market, for the first time using intertemporal overlapping generations model analysis method, constructed the rational arbitrager, momentum traders, information observers, commercial housing prices model fundamental analysis 4 kinds of heterogeneous traders expected in consideration of the heterogeneity; the expected case, using the method of system simulation of the important behavior parameters of heterogeneous traders alone influence on housing price and the superposition effect; without considering the expected heterogeneity of the case, the model is transformed into a housing price model with the expected general, and selected 30 provinces (city, Chinese autonomous region) provincial panel data of the commercial housing market the empirical test, because the model in the process of the establishment of the micro foundation of introducing more accord with the facts, It does not break away from the traditional macro basic analysis method, which can better reveal the essential relationship between the two stochastic volatility sequences of the commodity housing price.
2. building and empirical research on the macro regulation model of housing based on environmental heterogeneity
The expected difference analysis framework model and the introduction of the city commercial housing supply and demand control, on the basis of housing stock flow model are established on the regulation of housing supply regulation and the dynamic model of housing demand model of heterogeneous expectations and heterogeneous city policy environment; implementation effect of China 35 large and medium-sized city housing macro-control the quantitative research, comparative analysis and system simulation, to identify effective policy tools, to simulate the trajectory of commercial housing market in a heterogeneous environment, for the government with precision, have provided a strong basis for the regulation of policy effectiveness.
3. construction and empirical research on nonlinear dual time series model of house price and rational (adaptive) expected return
In the evaluation of Nonlinear Doubly Time Series Model on the basis of real estate returns for the first time, is expected to introduce the research framework of the relationship between housing price and return will be nonlinear, random sequence price and the expected return of the commercial housing as a stochastic system, using modern methods of stochastic system theory for system identification, which can better describe the price and rational housing market random mechanism (adaptive) nonlinear doubly time series model of expected return; for the first time given the expected return to quantify unobserved, and make empirical analysis of the expected return Chinese assessment in 35 large and medium-sized city, identified with the investment value of the city and region, provides a reasonable evaluation method and the conclusion for the investment and consumption decisions of market participants.
Study on the construction and Simulation of the expected diffusion model of 4. commodity housing market
For the first time to study the diffusion of innovation theory and method is applied to the residential market expectations, the spread of infectious diseases and Bass model were consistent with re setting the housing market situation, the only oral communication and other internal and external influences such as mass media exist at the same time two cases expected diffusion process theory, modeling characterization and simulation system, identify the key factors affecting the expected diffusion under the two conditions of the diffusion of expectations, is expected to cultivate, management provides reference.
The research work of this paper is to help understand the housing market operation rules in depth, for the price fluctuations, the reality of the regulation of inefficient, irrational demand growth and other issues to provide more explanation and solution, for the government, provide a scientific basis for the real estate enterprises and the purchase decision behavior, but also provides a new the idea for the research on the theory and application of general nonlinear stochastic systems with anticipation.

【學位授予單位】：山西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F299.23

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