本文關(guān)鍵詞：國際資本流動對我國價格水平影響的研究　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國際資本流動 價格水平 VAR模型

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟全球化的不斷深入，國際資本流動活動于各大資本市場之中，其規(guī)模日益壯大，速度不斷加劇。國際資本流動能在國際間調(diào)劑資本的余缺，達到資本合理有效配置，對世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起著重大的作用。近年來，我國也逐漸放寬對國際資本流動的限制，通過提供便利安全的投資環(huán)境招商引資，帶動經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。另一方面，伴隨著我國經(jīng)濟的高速發(fā)展和人民幣升值的強烈預(yù)期，越來越多的國際買家將目光投向中國市場。但需要注意的是，國際資本流動對一國經(jīng)濟來說是一把雙刃劍，它在促進經(jīng)濟蓬勃發(fā)展的同時，也提高了經(jīng)濟波動的風(fēng)險，加大了宏觀調(diào)控的難度。 因此，充分認識國際資本流動對我國經(jīng)濟影響的意義重大，它不僅有助于合理把控我國資本市場的開放進程，同時，也為妥善應(yīng)對國際資本流動所帶來的危機提供思路。本文選取價格水平作為研究方向，試圖從國際資本流動對我國價格水平的影響這一層面展開分析，意圖為推動人民幣的國際化進程、建立健全的外匯管理和資本管制制度提供政策性意見，為相關(guān)部門制定政策提供依據(jù)。 本文主要分為三個部分，首先基于理論模型，從商品市場和資本市場兩個方面，分析國際資本流動對價格水平的影響及其渠道。對商品市場來說，國際資本流動主要通過基礎(chǔ)貨幣渠道和國內(nèi)資金配套渠道，影響商品市場的供求關(guān)系，從而推動價格的變化。而對于資本市場來說，國際資本流動不僅可以通過貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加，改變資本供求關(guān)系從而影響資本市場的價格，同時也會通過降低融資成本，擴大實體經(jīng)濟規(guī)模的形式支持資本市場價格的上漲。 其后，本文選取居民消費價格指數(shù)、上證綜指的環(huán)比指數(shù)和房地產(chǎn)消費價格指數(shù)作為價格水平的衡量標準，通過建立線性回歸模型，發(fā)現(xiàn)國際資本流動對我國價格水平的影響程度并不高，其中，對房地產(chǎn)市場的影響相對顯著。為分析各變量之間的動態(tài)關(guān)系，本文以國際資本流動、居民消費價格指數(shù)和房地產(chǎn)消費價格指數(shù)為變量，建立VAR模型，并對模型進行脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解，結(jié)果顯示房地產(chǎn)消費價格指數(shù)和居民消費價格指數(shù)，在受到國際資本流動沖擊時，，都會產(chǎn)生正向的響應(yīng)，這種響應(yīng)都有時滯并伴隨著振蕩調(diào)整，最終會隨著時間逐漸消失，其中房地產(chǎn)市場受國際資本流動的影響程度更高，作用效果也更為明顯。 最后，基于前文理論和實證分析結(jié)果，得出本文結(jié)論，并根據(jù)結(jié)論給出建設(shè)性意見。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, international capital flow activities in the major capital markets, its scale is growing, the speed is increasing, international capital flows can adjust the international capital in the remaining and lacking. To achieve a reasonable and effective allocation of capital plays an important role in the development of the world economy. In recent years, China has also gradually relaxed the restrictions on international capital flows, by providing a convenient and safe investment environment to attract investment. On the other hand, with the rapid development of China's economy and the strong expectation of RMB appreciation, more and more international buyers are looking to the Chinese market. International capital flow is a double-edged sword for a country's economy. It not only promotes the vigorous development of economy, but also raises the risk of economic fluctuation and increases the difficulty of macro-control. Therefore, it is of great significance to fully understand the impact of international capital flows on China's economy, which is not only conducive to the rational control of the opening process of China's capital market, but also at the same time. This paper chooses the price level as the research direction and tries to analyze the impact of international capital flow on the price level of our country. It is intended to provide policy advice for promoting the internationalization of RMB and establishing a sound system of foreign exchange management and capital control, and to provide the basis for relevant departments to formulate policies. This paper is mainly divided into three parts. Firstly, based on the theoretical model, this paper analyzes the impact of international capital flow on the price level and its channels from the two aspects of commodity market and capital market. The international capital flow mainly through the basic monetary channel and the domestic capital supporting channel, affects the commodity market supply and demand relations, thus impels the price change, but for the capital market. International capital flow can not only change the relationship between supply and demand of capital through the increase of money supply, but also reduce the cost of financing. The expansion of the size of the real economy supports the rise in capital market prices. Then, this paper selects the consumer price index, the ring index of Shanghai Composite Index and the real estate consumer price index as the measure of price level, through the establishment of a linear regression model. It is found that the impact of international capital flow on China's price level is not high, among which, the impact on the real estate market is relatively significant. In order to analyze the dynamic relationship between the variables, this paper uses the international capital flow. The VAR model is established by using the consumer price index and the real estate consumption price index as variables, and the impulse response and variance decomposition of the model are carried out. The results show that the real estate consumer price index and the resident consumption price index. In the impact of international capital flows, there will be a positive response, this response has time delay and oscillatory adjustment, and eventually will gradually disappear with the time. Among them, the real estate market is more affected by the international capital flow, and the effect is more obvious. Finally, based on the previous theory and empirical analysis results, this paper draws a conclusion, and gives constructive suggestions according to the conclusion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F831.7;F726;F224

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