本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)資金鏈危機預警研究　出處：《浙江工商大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 資金鏈 資金鏈危機 資金鏈危機成因 資金鏈危機預警

【摘要】：我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),涉及上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)達50多個行業(yè),房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的良好運作不僅可以帶動相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,還能改善整個社會的就業(yè)情況。房地產(chǎn)公司是資金密集型公司,需要大量資金以獲取土地資源及投入項目開發(fā)建設(shè)。由于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)受政策調(diào)控影響大,存在很多不可控的不確定性因素,且公司項目開發(fā)周期長、資金回籠速度慢,房地產(chǎn)公司良好的資金循環(huán)狀況成為公司順利開發(fā)項目的根本保障。面對宏觀經(jīng)濟波動和國家對房地產(chǎn)市場的調(diào)控,房地產(chǎn)公司的經(jīng)營不確定性在增加,資金鏈斷裂的風險在上升。 本文借助房地產(chǎn)公司具體情況,對公司資金鏈的現(xiàn)狀、影響因素進行分析,并建立危機預警模型,進而對房地產(chǎn)公司如何防范資金鏈危機提出對策建議。本文主要運用SPSS統(tǒng)計分析軟件,對2007—2009年我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)A股市場符合條件的144個樣本展開研究。通過對預警指標的顯著性檢驗和因子分析,本文最終對6個主成分因子和4個非財務(wù)指標變量進行Logistic回歸分析,建立預警模型,從而預測公司是否會發(fā)生資金鏈危機。 根據(jù)以上研究,本文得到如下結(jié)論：(1)盈利能力、償債能力方面的財務(wù)指標和非財務(wù)指標中的3個股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)類指標和審計意見指標在危機樣本組和正常樣本組之間存在顯著差異,現(xiàn)金流量方面的財務(wù)指標、控股股東類別、董事會結(jié)構(gòu)和管理層持股指標在兩組樣本中不存在顯著差異；(2)Logistic回歸結(jié)果表明6個主成分因子預警指標對上市房地產(chǎn)公司資金鏈危機發(fā)生與否都存在顯著影響,而4個非財務(wù)指標變量對危機發(fā)生與否不存在顯著影響,最后得到資金鏈危機預警模型的判定準確率為75.70%；(3)對房地產(chǎn)公司資金鏈狀況影響較大的因素有盈利能力、償債能力、營運資金管理效率和營業(yè)收入增長率。最后,本文為房地產(chǎn)公司如何防范資金鏈危機提出對策建議,希望能給房地產(chǎn)公司經(jīng)營管理者提供幫助,并使得整個房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)健康、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:China's real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy, involving more than 50 upstream and downstream industries, the good operation of the real estate industry can not only promote the development of related industries. It can also improve the employment situation of the whole society. Real estate companies are capital-intensive companies, which need a lot of funds to obtain land resources and invest in the development and construction of projects. There are many uncontrollable uncertainty factors, and the company project development cycle is long, the speed of capital return is slow. In the face of macroeconomic fluctuations and the regulation of the real estate market, the operating uncertainty of real estate companies is increasing. The risk of a financial chain break is on the rise. With the help of the specific situation of real estate companies, this paper analyzes the current situation and influencing factors of the company's capital chain, and establishes a crisis warning model. And then put forward countermeasures and suggestions on how to prevent the crisis of capital chain in real estate companies. This paper mainly uses SPSS statistical analysis software. This paper studies 144 samples of A share market of real estate industry in China from 2007 to 2009. Through the significance test and factor analysis of early warning index. In this paper, Logistic regression analysis is carried out on 6 principal component factors and 4 non-financial index variables, and an early warning model is established to predict whether the company will have a financial chain crisis or not. Based on the above research, this paper draws the following conclusion: 1) profitability. There are significant differences between the financial indicators of solvency and the three equity structure indicators and audit opinion indicators of non-financial indicators between the crisis sample group and the normal sample group, and the financial indicators of cash flow. There is no significant difference in the categories of controlling shareholders, the structure of board of directors and the index of managerial shareholding in the two groups; The logistic regression results show that there is a significant impact on the risk of capital chain crisis of listed real estate companies. However, four non-financial index variables have no significant influence on the occurrence of the crisis. Finally, the accuracy of the early-warning model of the financial chain crisis is 75.70. The factors that have great influence on the capital chain of real estate companies are profitability, solvency, working capital management efficiency and growth rate of operating income. This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for real estate companies to prevent the crisis of capital chain, hoping to provide help to the managers of real estate companies and make the whole real estate industry develop healthily and steadily.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.233.42;F224

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 徐曉音;關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)財務(wù)管理的若干意見[J];商業(yè)研究;2000年09期

2 秦志敏;趙治業(yè);靳琳;;成長型企業(yè)資金鏈斷裂風險管理調(diào)研及啟示——來自遼寧省成長型企業(yè)的證據(jù)[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2010年11期

3 張鳴 ,程濤;審計意見在財務(wù)預警中的信息含量[J];財會通訊;2004年23期

4 管朝龍;;淺析企業(yè)資金鏈斷裂原因及其防范對策——以浙贛地區(qū)民營企業(yè)為例[J];財會通訊;2010年08期

5 劉小麗;唐瑩瑩;;基于項目周期理論的房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)資金鏈風險管理研究[J];財會通訊;2010年35期

6 顏哲;劉倩;王貴春;;房地產(chǎn)公司財務(wù)預警實證研究——T檢驗與因子分析法下Logistic模型運用對比[J];財會月刊;2011年18期

7 盧馨;魯成方;李皓;;我國房地產(chǎn)上市公司現(xiàn)金流狀況分析[J];財會月刊;2011年32期

8 郭亞力;;我國房地產(chǎn)投融資格局分析及路徑選擇[J];財貿(mào)研究;2006年02期

9 王玉紅;;江龍控股集團資金鏈斷裂的成因分析及啟示[J];財務(wù)與會計;2010年03期

10 遲旭升;李明;;公司治理與企業(yè)財務(wù)風險相關(guān)性研究——來自滬深兩市主板A股上市公司的經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)[J];東北財經(jīng)大學學報;2011年05期

相關(guān)博士學位論文 前1條

1 李哲;中國房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)投資行為研究[D];東北財經(jīng)大學;2009年

相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前4條

1 許雄波;上市公司財務(wù)危機預警模型的改進研究[D];西南政法大學;2011年

2 周芳;我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)融資模式研究[D];山東大學;2011年

3 何躍群;成長型企業(yè)資金鏈斷裂的成因分析[D];西南大學;2006年

4 羅薇;我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)資金鏈管理研究[D];南昌大學;2010年

，

本文編號：1372648