本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)資金鏈危機(jī)預(yù)警研究　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 資金鏈 資金鏈危機(jī) 資金鏈危機(jī)成因 資金鏈危機(jī)預(yù)警

【摘要】：我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),涉及上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)達(dá)50多個(gè)行業(yè),房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的良好運(yùn)作不僅可以帶動相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,還能改善整個(gè)社會的就業(yè)情況。房地產(chǎn)公司是資金密集型公司,需要大量資金以獲取土地資源及投入項(xiàng)目開發(fā)建設(shè)。由于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)受政策調(diào)控影響大,存在很多不可控的不確定性因素,且公司項(xiàng)目開發(fā)周期長、資金回籠速度慢,房地產(chǎn)公司良好的資金循環(huán)狀況成為公司順利開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的根本保障。面對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動和國家對房地產(chǎn)市場的調(diào)控,房地產(chǎn)公司的經(jīng)營不確定性在增加,資金鏈斷裂的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在上升。 本文借助房地產(chǎn)公司具體情況,對公司資金鏈的現(xiàn)狀、影響因素進(jìn)行分析,并建立危機(jī)預(yù)警模型,進(jìn)而對房地產(chǎn)公司如何防范資金鏈危機(jī)提出對策建議。本文主要運(yùn)用SPSS統(tǒng)計(jì)分析軟件,對2007—2009年我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)A股市場符合條件的144個(gè)樣本展開研究。通過對預(yù)警指標(biāo)的顯著性檢驗(yàn)和因子分析,本文最終對6個(gè)主成分因子和4個(gè)非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)變量進(jìn)行Logistic回歸分析,建立預(yù)警模型,從而預(yù)測公司是否會發(fā)生資金鏈危機(jī)。 根據(jù)以上研究,本文得到如下結(jié)論：(1)盈利能力、償債能力方面的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)和非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)中的3個(gè)股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)類指標(biāo)和審計(jì)意見指標(biāo)在危機(jī)樣本組和正常樣本組之間存在顯著差異,現(xiàn)金流量方面的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)、控股股東類別、董事會結(jié)構(gòu)和管理層持股指標(biāo)在兩組樣本中不存在顯著差異；(2)Logistic回歸結(jié)果表明6個(gè)主成分因子預(yù)警指標(biāo)對上市房地產(chǎn)公司資金鏈危機(jī)發(fā)生與否都存在顯著影響,而4個(gè)非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)變量對危機(jī)發(fā)生與否不存在顯著影響,最后得到資金鏈危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的判定準(zhǔn)確率為75.70%；(3)對房地產(chǎn)公司資金鏈狀況影響較大的因素有盈利能力、償債能力、營運(yùn)資金管理效率和營業(yè)收入增長率。最后,本文為房地產(chǎn)公司如何防范資金鏈危機(jī)提出對策建議,希望能給房地產(chǎn)公司經(jīng)營管理者提供幫助,并使得整個(gè)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)健康、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:China's real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy, involving more than 50 upstream and downstream industries, the good operation of the real estate industry can not only promote the development of related industries. It can also improve the employment situation of the whole society. Real estate companies are capital-intensive companies, which need a lot of funds to obtain land resources and invest in the development and construction of projects. There are many uncontrollable uncertainty factors, and the company project development cycle is long, the speed of capital return is slow. In the face of macroeconomic fluctuations and the regulation of the real estate market, the operating uncertainty of real estate companies is increasing. The risk of a financial chain break is on the rise. With the help of the specific situation of real estate companies, this paper analyzes the current situation and influencing factors of the company's capital chain, and establishes a crisis warning model. And then put forward countermeasures and suggestions on how to prevent the crisis of capital chain in real estate companies. This paper mainly uses SPSS statistical analysis software. This paper studies 144 samples of A share market of real estate industry in China from 2007 to 2009. Through the significance test and factor analysis of early warning index. In this paper, Logistic regression analysis is carried out on 6 principal component factors and 4 non-financial index variables, and an early warning model is established to predict whether the company will have a financial chain crisis or not. Based on the above research, this paper draws the following conclusion: 1) profitability. There are significant differences between the financial indicators of solvency and the three equity structure indicators and audit opinion indicators of non-financial indicators between the crisis sample group and the normal sample group, and the financial indicators of cash flow. There is no significant difference in the categories of controlling shareholders, the structure of board of directors and the index of managerial shareholding in the two groups; The logistic regression results show that there is a significant impact on the risk of capital chain crisis of listed real estate companies. However, four non-financial index variables have no significant influence on the occurrence of the crisis. Finally, the accuracy of the early-warning model of the financial chain crisis is 75.70. The factors that have great influence on the capital chain of real estate companies are profitability, solvency, working capital management efficiency and growth rate of operating income. This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for real estate companies to prevent the crisis of capital chain, hoping to provide help to the managers of real estate companies and make the whole real estate industry develop healthily and steadily.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.233.42;F224

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