發(fā)布時間：2018-09-03 19:54

【摘要】：經(jīng)過30余年的發(fā)展，我國民辦高等教育取得了舉世矚目的成績，民辦高等教育由我國高等教育的補充形式發(fā)展為重要的組成部分。在快速發(fā)展的過程中，我國民辦高校也出現(xiàn)了招生難、投資效益低下、可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力不強等不容忽視的問題，一些民辦高校甚至出現(xiàn)了關(guān)停和倒閉現(xiàn)象。面對高等教育市場不斷增大的競爭壓力，如何提高我國民辦高等教育的投資效益、增強其投資風(fēng)險的防控能力、實現(xiàn)其可持續(xù)發(fā)展，成為擺在我國政府、民辦高等教育舉辦者（管理者）和研究者面前亟需解決的一個重要問題。 本研究旨在通過對我國民辦高等教育投資與風(fēng)險管理的分析和探討，進一步豐富與完善我國民辦高等教育投資與風(fēng)險管理理論的應(yīng)用，為我國民辦高等教育投資決策與風(fēng)險預(yù)警提供量化分析技術(shù)，為我國民辦高等教育投資效益與投資風(fēng)險管理水平的提高提供理論指導(dǎo)，進而為政府制定相關(guān)政策和民辦高等教育投資者決策提供參考。 本研究以高等教育學(xué)、教育經(jīng)濟學(xué)、投資學(xué)、管理學(xué)的理論為基礎(chǔ)，采用規(guī)范分析與實證分析相結(jié)合，定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合，靜態(tài)分析與動態(tài)分析相結(jié)合的研究方法，綜合應(yīng)用現(xiàn)代管理科學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)新技術(shù)，對民辦高等教育投資與風(fēng)險管理展開了系統(tǒng)研究，主要成果和結(jié)論如下： （1）系統(tǒng)地分析了我國民辦高等教育發(fā)展與投資現(xiàn)狀，發(fā)掘出我國民辦高等教育投資中存在的主要問題。分析結(jié)果表明：我國民辦高等教育發(fā)展經(jīng)歷了“辦學(xué)地位確立期→辦學(xué)空間伸縮期→高速發(fā)展期→全面調(diào)整期”等幾個階段，并呈現(xiàn)出“辦學(xué)規(guī)模不斷擴大、辦學(xué)模式日益豐富、辦學(xué)層次不斷拓展、辦學(xué)質(zhì)量不斷提高”的發(fā)展特征。與國外發(fā)達國家相比，我國民辦高校尚未建立多元化的融資渠道，辦學(xué)資金來源渠道單一，辦學(xué)資金主要依靠學(xué)雜費收入；我國政府對民辦高校的財政投入遠遠低于國外發(fā)達國家；同時，我國民辦高校面臨學(xué)費上漲空間有限、銀行貸款困難、結(jié)構(gòu)性供求矛盾突出、區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡等問題。 （2）建立了我國民辦高等教育投資效益測度模型及投資效益評價體系。本研究在分析民辦高等教育成本與收益構(gòu)成的基礎(chǔ)上，以教育內(nèi)部收益率和項目投資收益率核算方法為基礎(chǔ)，基于投資者的視角，建立了兩階段民辦高等教育投資效益動態(tài)測算模型，，并在該模型的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了民辦高等教育投資收益區(qū)間的確定方法，并具體地測算出投資收益合理回報區(qū)間，為民辦高等教育投資決策提供了參考依據(jù)。該模型以高等教育收益理論和高等教育成本分擔(dān)理論為指導(dǎo)，以民辦高等教育成本、收益核算為依據(jù)，綜合考慮固定資產(chǎn)投資回收期對投資收益的影響因素，將投資收益率的計算公式分為兩類，分別給出了固定資產(chǎn)回收期內(nèi)與固定資產(chǎn)回收期外的民辦高校的投資收益率的測度公式，彌補了傳統(tǒng)的投資收益率計算存在的不足，為民辦高校投資收益率的計算提供了新方法。并利用該方法計算出我國民辦高校在固定資產(chǎn)回收期內(nèi)的投資收益區(qū)間和在固定資產(chǎn)回收期外的投資收益區(qū)間，測算結(jié)果能夠比較客觀地反映我國民辦高校不同發(fā)展階段投資收益率的動態(tài)變化情況，為民辦高等教育投資提供了有益的參考。該模型克服了傳統(tǒng)的收益率計算未體現(xiàn)收益與成本的時間價值的弊端，使得民辦高校投資收益率測度結(jié)果更加科學(xué)合理，為我國民辦高等教育投資收益測算提供了新方法。繼而還構(gòu)建了我國民辦高等教育投資收益評估指標體系，并建立了基于矩陣關(guān)聯(lián)分析法的民辦高校投資效益動態(tài)評估模型，通過實證分析檢驗了模型的有效性，為進一步全面量化評估我國民辦高等教育收益提供了技術(shù)支撐。 （3）構(gòu)建了民辦高等教育投資風(fēng)險評估模型與風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)。在投資風(fēng)險成因分析的基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)民辦高校投資風(fēng)險評估的目標與特點，結(jié)合灰色聚類評價的要素，利用灰色三角白化權(quán)評價思想，構(gòu)建了適合民辦高校投資風(fēng)險的評價模型，并通過實證分析檢驗了該模型的有效性。該模型可以實現(xiàn)對民辦高校投資風(fēng)險進行分類，為我國民辦高等教育投資風(fēng)險評估提供了新方法。另外，設(shè)計出我國民辦高校投資風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，包括預(yù)警指標體系的構(gòu)建、警度測度模型的建立、警號識別系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計，并根據(jù)民辦高校投資風(fēng)險預(yù)警的內(nèi)涵，將功效系數(shù)法引入到民辦高校投資風(fēng)險警度測度中，為民辦高校投資風(fēng)險警度度量提供技術(shù)支撐，對民辦高等教育投資風(fēng)險預(yù)警研究進行了有益的探索。本研究所構(gòu)建的基于灰色三角白化權(quán)的民辦高校投資風(fēng)險評估模型是進行民辦高校投資風(fēng)險評估的有效方法，可以實現(xiàn)對民辦高校投資風(fēng)險的全面評估，而基于功效系數(shù)法的民辦高校投資風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型是民辦高校投資風(fēng)險預(yù)警的有效方法，可以實現(xiàn)對民辦高校投資風(fēng)險進行事前預(yù)警，為防范民辦高校的投資風(fēng)險提供幫助。因而，投資風(fēng)險評估結(jié)果可以為投資風(fēng)險預(yù)警提供參考，風(fēng)險預(yù)警是風(fēng)險評估的延伸，兩者互為驗證互為補充，為民辦高校投資風(fēng)險分析與風(fēng)險預(yù)警提供了完整的方法體系，也為民辦高等教育投資管理和投資風(fēng)險預(yù)警研究提供了多樣化的工具。 （4）對我國民辦高等教育投資環(huán)境和投資收益的變化趨勢進行了預(yù)測，并據(jù)此提出了相關(guān)政策建議。預(yù)測結(jié)果表明：“十二五”期間，從宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境看，我國將為我國民辦高等教育的持續(xù)、健康發(fā)展提供良好的外部經(jīng)濟環(huán)境。從投資政策環(huán)境看，我國將重點推進民辦高等教育的法人制度、辦學(xué)自主權(quán)、稅收優(yōu)惠、財政資助、財務(wù)管理、師生權(quán)利保障等方面的政策和法規(guī)建設(shè)，將進一步完善民辦高等教育的政策與法規(guī)體系。從民辦高校生源情況看，雖然面臨人口出生率下降因素的影響，但隨著高中階段教育的普及、高等學(xué)校毛入學(xué)率的逐步提高和招生計劃的持續(xù)增加，以及國家招生政策對民辦高校的傾斜，我國民辦高等教育的招生規(guī)模與在校生規(guī)模還將有適度的增大，“十二五”期間我國民辦高校的生源相對充足，仍有較大的發(fā)展空間。從民辦高等教育行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢看，民辦高等教育發(fā)展多元化和依法辦學(xué)將成為民辦高校發(fā)展的趨勢。從民辦高校投資潛力看，我國民辦高校投資收益率與“十一五”期間相比將有所提高，我國民辦高校將進入規(guī)模效益與內(nèi)涵提升并舉階段，當然民辦高校在快速發(fā)展過程中，也面臨來自公辦高校與民辦高校以及民辦高校內(nèi)部之間的競爭壓力，同時，還普遍存在整體辦學(xué)水平不高和綜合競爭力不強等問題，潛在的生源風(fēng)險、運營風(fēng)險、管理風(fēng)險、政策風(fēng)險、不確定性風(fēng)險日趨凸顯，由此而導(dǎo)致民辦高校發(fā)展出現(xiàn)此興彼衰的局面，且將持續(xù)較長一段時間。最后，從提高投資效益與加強投資風(fēng)險防控的角度，提出了適合我國民辦高等教育發(fā)展趨勢的投資對策，為我國民辦高等教育投資與風(fēng)險管理提供了有益的參考。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of development, private higher education in China has made remarkable achievements. Private higher education has developed from a supplementary form of higher education to an important part of it. Faced with the increasing competition pressure in the higher education market, how to improve the investment efficiency of private higher education, enhance its ability to prevent and control investment risks, and realize its sustainable development have become the sponsors (managers) and researchers of the government, private higher education in China. An important problem before us.
The purpose of this study is to enrich and perfect the application of investment and risk management theory in private higher education by analyzing and discussing the investment and risk management of private higher education in China, to provide quantitative analysis technology for investment decision-making and risk early warning of private higher education in China, and to provide investment benefit and investment of private higher education in China. The improvement of capital risk management level provides theoretical guidance, and then provides a reference for the government to formulate relevant policies and private higher education investors decision-making.
Based on the theories of higher education, educational economics, investment and management science, this study combines normative analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, static analysis with dynamic analysis, and applies modern management science and new technology of system science to invest in private higher education. Risk management has been systematically studied. The main results and conclusions are as follows:
(1) This paper systematically analyzes the present situation of the development and investment of private higher education in China, and explores the main problems in the investment of private higher education in China. Compared with developed countries, private colleges and universities in China have not yet established diversified financing channels, the sources of funds are single, and the funds for running schools mainly rely on the income of tuition and miscellaneous fees. At the same time, China's private colleges and universities are facing such problems as limited space for tuition fees, difficulties in bank loans, structural contradictions between supply and demand, and unbalanced regional development.
(2) Established the investment benefit measurement model and investment benefit evaluation system of private higher education in China. Based on the analysis of the cost and benefit composition of private higher education, this study establishes the investment efficiency of two-stage private higher education from the perspective of investors, based on the calculation method of the internal rate of return of education and project investment rate of return. On the basis of this model, this paper puts forward a method to determine the investment income interval of private higher education, and calculates the reasonable return interval of investment income concretely, which provides a reference for the investment decision of private higher education. Based on the cost and income accounting of private higher education and considering the influence factors of fixed assets investment payback period on investment returns, this paper divides the calculation formulas of investment returns into two categories, and gives the measurement formulas of investment returns of private colleges and universities within and outside fixed assets payback period respectively, which makes up for the traditional ones. The shortcomings in the calculation of the return on investment provide a new method for the calculation of the return on investment of non-governmental colleges and universities, and use this method to calculate the return interval of investment of non-governmental colleges and universities in the period of fixed assets recovery and the return interval of investment outside the period of fixed assets recovery, the results of calculation can objectively reflect the results of non-governmental colleges and universities in China. This model overcomes the drawbacks of the traditional calculation of returns which do not reflect the time value of returns and costs, and makes the measurement results of returns on investment in private colleges more scientific and reasonable, thus providing a useful reference for the investment in private higher education in China. Then, the paper constructs the evaluation index system of private higher education investment returns, and establishes a dynamic evaluation model of private higher education investment returns based on matrix correlation analysis. The effectiveness of the model is verified by empirical analysis, which provides a further quantitative evaluation of private higher education returns in China. Technical support.
(3) The investment risk assessment model and risk early warning system of private higher education are constructed. On the basis of the analysis of the causes of investment risk, according to the objectives and characteristics of investment risk assessment of private colleges and universities, combined with the elements of grey clustering evaluation, and using the idea of grey triangle whitening right evaluation, the evaluation model suitable for investment risk of private colleges and universities is constructed. The model can classify the investment risk of private colleges and universities and provide a new method for the investment risk assessment of private colleges and universities in China. According to the connotation of investment risk early warning in private colleges and universities, the efficiency coefficient method is introduced into the investment risk early warning measurement of private colleges and universities, which provides technical support for the investment risk early warning measurement of private colleges and universities, and makes a beneficial exploration on the investment risk early warning research of private colleges and universities. The grey triangle whitening right investment risk assessment model of private colleges and universities is an effective method to evaluate the investment risk of private colleges and universities. It can realize the comprehensive evaluation of the investment risk of private colleges and universities. The investment risk early warning model of private colleges and Universities Based on the efficiency coefficient method is an effective method to warn the investment risk of private colleges and universities. Therefore, the results of investment risk assessment can provide a reference for investment risk early warning, and risk early warning is an extension of risk assessment. The two are complementary to each other, providing a complete set of investment risk analysis and risk early warning for private colleges and universities. The method system also provides diversified tools for investment management and investment risk early warning research of private higher education.
(4) Predicting the investment environment and the change trend of investment income of private higher education in China, and putting forward relevant policy suggestions. The results show that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China will provide a good external economic environment for the sustained and healthy development of private higher education in China from the macroeconomic environment. In view of the policy environment, China will focus on promoting the legal person system, autonomy in running schools, preferential taxation, financial support, financial management, protection of the rights of teachers and students and other policies and regulations to further improve the system of policies and regulations for private higher education. However, with the popularization of high school education, the gradual increase of the gross enrollment rate, the continual increase of the enrollment plan and the inclination of the national enrollment policy towards private colleges and universities, the enrollment scale and the enrollment scale of private higher education in China will also increase moderately during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. From the perspective of the development trend of private higher education industry, the diversification of private higher education development and running schools according to law will become the development trend of private colleges and universities. Colleges and universities will enter the stage of both scale efficiency and connotation improvement. Of course, private colleges and universities are also facing competition pressure from public universities and private colleges and private colleges in the process of rapid development. At the same time, there are still problems such as low overall level of running schools and weak comprehensive competitiveness, potential source of students risk, operating style and so on. Risk, management risk, policy risk and uncertainty risk are becoming increasingly prominent, which leads to the rise and fall of private colleges and universities, and will continue for a long time. Finally, from the perspective of improving investment efficiency and strengthening the prevention and control of investment risk, this paper puts forward investment countermeasures suitable for the development trend of private higher education in China, which will be beneficial to our country. It provides a useful reference for higher education investment and risk management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：G648.7

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