【摘要】：針對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目普遍的成本超支現(xiàn)象，本文通過整理成本管理中造成估算成本和實(shí)際成本偏差的原因，運(yùn)用戰(zhàn)略成本管理和協(xié)同學(xué)理論的基本思想，解釋了成本偏差的分布規(guī)律及其演化特點(diǎn)，構(gòu)建了基于成本效益原則的工程成本信息協(xié)同理論。本文根據(jù)面向?qū)ο蟮慕ㄖ畔⒎诸悩?biāo)準(zhǔn)，利用底層建筑信息明確了建筑設(shè)計(jì)信息到施工信息的轉(zhuǎn)換方法和原則，從而為利用BIM技術(shù)計(jì)算工程成本管理協(xié)同性奠定了基礎(chǔ)。面向協(xié)同的工程成本信息模型為項(xiàng)目管理人員建立了全壽命周期內(nèi)快速成本核算和成本控制基礎(chǔ)理論方法，有助于降低成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，提高成本管理的協(xié)作水平。 工程項(xiàng)目成本信息的協(xié)同過程是項(xiàng)目管理人員對(duì)價(jià)值鏈上活動(dòng)通過選擇投入與效益產(chǎn)出間的最優(yōu)方案的不斷優(yōu)化成本管理方案最終達(dá)到穩(wěn)態(tài)的過程。項(xiàng)目的成本管理活動(dòng)構(gòu)成了成本管理的投入，成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的降低構(gòu)成了效益產(chǎn)出。管理投入與成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)成的穩(wěn)態(tài)均衡狀態(tài)，是工程項(xiàng)目成本協(xié)同的體現(xiàn)。 對(duì)于成本管理的投入可以通過計(jì)算是各項(xiàng)管理活動(dòng)投入的總和實(shí)現(xiàn)，，因此本文重點(diǎn)研究了成本管理的效益產(chǎn)出。本文選用成本偏差的波動(dòng)分布在一定置信度下的置信成本作為成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量，以保證成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形成的效益值是穩(wěn)定性。成本偏差的波動(dòng)分布形式可以用冪律正態(tài)組合分布表示，從這個(gè)分布中可以看出引起工程項(xiàng)目成本波動(dòng)的因素分為冪律性、正態(tài)性和偏移性三個(gè)方面的特征。通過分析冪律性、正態(tài)性和偏移性的特征，本文提出了成本波動(dòng)函數(shù)的計(jì)算方法，進(jìn)而推導(dǎo)出了成本管理效益值。 本文利用OmniClass建筑分類體系中建筑元素、工作結(jié)果和建筑產(chǎn)品的分類方法，提出了利用BIM技術(shù)共享設(shè)計(jì)過程和建筑過程中成本信息的流程方法。結(jié)合建筑信息發(fā)展深度理論，本文在建筑信息互通的情況下，可以計(jì)算項(xiàng)目任一階段，任一建筑信息發(fā)展深度的工程項(xiàng)目正態(tài)性波動(dòng)及其估算成本的期望。這在預(yù)測(cè)項(xiàng)目前期的成本波動(dòng)具有重要意義。 為了驗(yàn)證本文研究方法的正確性，本文采用了Revit和小別墅案例，進(jìn)行了工程成本協(xié)同度的計(jì)算。從設(shè)計(jì)深度確定，到建筑信息分解，正態(tài)性方差的擬合過程是完全有效的。成本效益原則下，工程成本協(xié)同過程能夠找到穩(wěn)定的最小值，此時(shí)成本管理的投入等于相應(yīng)置信度下的置信成本。事實(shí)證明，協(xié)同情況下，成本超支是普遍的，只不過超支是在合理的投入下，可控有序的成本超支現(xiàn)象。
[Abstract]:In view of the common cost overruns in engineering projects, this paper applies the basic ideas of strategic cost management and synergetic theory through sorting out the causes of the deviation between the estimated cost and the actual cost in the cost management. The distribution law of cost deviation and its evolution characteristics are explained, and the cooperative theory of engineering cost information based on cost-benefit principle is constructed. According to the object-oriented classification standard of building information, this paper clarifies the conversion method and principle of building design information to construction information by using the bottom building information, thus laying a foundation for using BIM technology to calculate the synergy of engineering cost management. The collaborative engineering cost information model establishes the basic theory method of rapid cost accounting and cost control in the whole life cycle for project managers, which is helpful to reduce the cost risk and improve the cooperation level of cost management. The collaborative process of engineering project cost information is the process that project managers reach steady state by choosing the optimal cost management scheme between input and benefit output. The cost management activity of the project constitutes the input of cost management, and the reduction of the cost risk constitutes the benefit output. The steady equilibrium state of management input and cost risk is the embodiment of project cost coordination. The input of cost management can be calculated as the sum of the inputs of various management activities, so this paper focuses on the study of the benefit output of cost management. In this paper, the confidence cost of the fluctuation distribution of cost deviation under certain confidence degree is chosen as the measure of cost risk, so as to ensure that the benefit value of cost risk formation is stable. The fluctuation distribution form of cost deviation can be expressed by power law normal combination distribution. From this distribution, we can see that the factors that cause the project cost fluctuation can be divided into three aspects: power law, normality and deviation. By analyzing the characteristics of power law, normality and deviation, this paper puts forward a method to calculate the cost fluctuation function, and then deduces the value of cost management benefit. In this paper, using the classification method of building elements, working results and building products in OmniClass architecture classification system, a process method of sharing design process and construction cost information by using BIM technology is put forward. Based on the theory of development depth of building information, this paper can calculate the normal fluctuation and the expectation of the estimated cost of any construction information development depth in any stage of the project under the condition of building information interworking. It is of great significance to predict the cost fluctuation in the early stage of the project. In order to verify the correctness of the research method, Revit and villa cases are used to calculate the project cost synergy. The fitting process of normal variance from design depth determination to architectural information decomposition is completely effective. Under the principle of cost benefit, the project cost cooperation process can find the stable minimum value, where the input of cost management is equal to the confidence cost under the corresponding confidence level. It has been proved that cost overruns are common in synergy, but cost overruns are controlled and ordered under reasonable input.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU723.3;TU17

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