本文選題：成本控制 + 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)　； 參考：《華東交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化是世界發(fā)展的必然趨勢，受國際公司的沖擊，我國建筑市場的競爭愈發(fā)激烈。合理的控制成本以獲得經(jīng)濟(jì)利益最大化，既是企業(yè)追求的目標(biāo)，也是其生存和發(fā)展的根本。對(duì)于大型的工程建設(shè)項(xiàng)目來說，其成本管理是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的過程，僅憑經(jīng)驗(yàn)來控制成本的時(shí)代已經(jīng)過去了，施工各階段影響成本的因素都是相互聯(lián)系的，綜合考慮影響成本的各因素，用系統(tǒng)、動(dòng)態(tài)的方法對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行成本控制是需要深入研究的一個(gè)方向。 在對(duì)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本控制的理論及方法探索過程中，以往的研究以理論指導(dǎo)為主，缺乏定量的分析。系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法已廣泛應(yīng)用到社會(huì)各個(gè)領(lǐng)域，，在建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方面也已取得一定的研究成果，然而，在建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本控制中的系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用尚未展開研究�；诖�，本文嘗試將系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的建模方法與建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本控制的相關(guān)理論結(jié)合，在對(duì)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本控制系統(tǒng)的模型建立方面進(jìn)行了一定研究。 文章首先用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法解決問題的思路，對(duì)成本控制系統(tǒng)中的主要因素進(jìn)行分析。以成本偏差反饋環(huán)、進(jìn)度偏差反饋環(huán)為兩條主線，進(jìn)行成本影響因素分析；并以返工率的形式將質(zhì)量目標(biāo)囊括到成本控制綜合系統(tǒng)中去，應(yīng)用AHP的方法對(duì)本文案例中極具代表性的沖擊鉆孔樁的施工過程進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，識(shí)別主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故為斷樁與成孔不圓，其發(fā)生對(duì)返工率的影響占60%。其次，基于之前的分析，針對(duì)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目采用魚骨圖的方法從人、材、機(jī)、方法、環(huán)境五方面來識(shí)別系統(tǒng)中的主要變量，根據(jù)工程建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際情況，確定內(nèi)生變量、外生變量以及可忽略因素；從系統(tǒng)中的成本偏差反饋環(huán)、進(jìn)度偏差反饋環(huán)這兩條線出發(fā)，建立整個(gè)成本控制系統(tǒng)的一個(gè)模型。最后選取了八盤峽黃河特大橋主橋墩的水下基礎(chǔ)工程施工過程作為實(shí)證研究對(duì)象，通過資料收集與處理，對(duì)模型中所需要的參數(shù)進(jìn)行處理估算，并建立所有變量間的方程式,運(yùn)用VensimPLE軟件，進(jìn)行仿真模擬，驗(yàn)證應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的方法進(jìn)行建設(shè)項(xiàng)目系統(tǒng)的成本控制是可行的。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization is the inevitable trend of the world development. The competition of our country's construction market is becoming more and more fierce because of the impact of international companies. Reasonable cost control to maximize economic benefits is not only the goal pursued by enterprises, but also the root of its survival and development. For large construction projects, cost management is a complex process. The era of cost control by experience alone has passed, and the factors that affect the cost in every stage of construction are interrelated. Considering all the factors that affect the cost, it is necessary to study the cost control of the project by systematic and dynamic methods. In the course of exploring the theory and method of construction project cost control, the previous research is based on theoretical guidance and lacks of quantitative analysis. The method of system dynamics has been widely used in various fields of society and has made some achievements in risk management of construction projects. However, the system application in cost control of construction projects has not been studied. Based on this, this paper attempts to combine the modeling method of system dynamics with the related theory of construction project cost control, and does some research on the modeling of construction project cost control system. In this paper, the main factors of cost control system are analyzed by using the method of system dynamics to solve the problem. Taking cost deviation feedback loop and schedule deviation feedback loop as two main lines, the cost influencing factors are analyzed, and the quality target is included in the cost control integrated system in the form of rework rate. In this paper, AHP method is used to analyze the risk of the construction process of the typical impact bored pile in this paper, and the main risk accidents are identified as broken pile and non-circular hole, and the influence of the occurrence of the pile on the rework rate accounts for 60%. Secondly, based on the previous analysis, the method of fish bone map is used to identify the main variables in the system from five aspects: human, material, machine, method and environment. According to the actual situation of the project, the endogenous variables are determined. Based on the two lines of cost deviation feedback loop and schedule deviation feedback loop, a model of the whole cost control system is established. Finally, the underwater foundation engineering construction process of the main pier of the Yellow River Superbridge in Bafangxia is selected as the empirical research object. Through the data collection and processing, the parameters needed in the model are processed and estimated, and the equations between all variables are established. By using VensimPLE software, the simulation is carried out to verify that it is feasible to control the cost of the construction project system by applying the method of system dynamics.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：N941.3

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