本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于動態(tài)邊際減排成本模擬的碳排放權(quán)交易與碳稅選擇機制，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

基于動態(tài)邊際減排成本模擬的碳排放權(quán)交易與碳稅選擇機制

Selection Mechanism between Emission Trading and Carbon Tax based on Simulation of Dynamic Marginal Abatement Cost

[1] [2] [3]

Wu Libo, Qian Haoqi and Tang Weiqi （ 1. Fudan University ; 2 . Center for European Economic Research, ZEW）

[1]復旦大學經(jīng)濟學院、復旦大學能源經(jīng)濟與戰(zhàn)略研究中心,200433; [2]德國歐洲經(jīng)濟研究中心,200433;

文章摘要：微觀企業(yè)面對減排約束時的行為選擇對于減排成本產(chǎn)生直接影響，從而導致不確定性條件下數(shù)量控制與價格控制政策實施的有效性出現(xiàn)差異。本文將這一機制的理論模型納入一般均衡分析框架，構(gòu)建中國多區(qū)域動態(tài)一般均衡模型，模擬分析了各省市從2007年至2020年的邊際減排成本曲線，并就其對溫室氣體控排的碳排放權(quán)交易與碳稅政策的選擇進行了研究。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，一方面邊際減排成本曲線的斜率會隨著減排行動的推進而逐漸增大，另一方面也會出現(xiàn)拐點并進一步上翹，且不同省市其邊際減排成本曲線上翹的幅度以及出現(xiàn)拐點的位置均存在差異。由于在信息不完全條件下，，數(shù)量政策更適用于邊際減排成本較為平緩的情況，中國各省市邊際減排成本曲線的動態(tài)特征說明碳排放權(quán)總量控制與交易機制更適用于現(xiàn)階段中國實際；隨著未來減排力度的加強，則要進一步考慮將碳稅政策引入低碳政策體系中。

Abstr：When facing with emission constraint, firm＇s optimal behavior will be changed and thus affect abatement cost directly. As a result, the effectiveness of quantity control policy and price control policy will be different under this situation with uncertainty. This paper introduces this micro-mechanism into the dynamic regional computable general equilibrium model of China to simulate each region＇s marginal abatement cost curve from year 2007 to 2020 and study the choice between emission trading policy and carbon tax policy. Firstly, the results show that the slopes of each region＇s MAC curve will increase gradually and MAC curves will occur kink points. Secondly, slopes on both sides of MAC curve are different and kink points will move due to tighter emission constraint. For the reason that quantity control policy is more suitable than price control policy when there exists uncertainty and the slope of MAC curve is flat, the results imply that emission trading scheme is more applicable currently in China. But when emission target becomes more stringent in the future, policy makers should also introduce carbon tax into low carbon policy system.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Dynamic Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Emission Cap and Trading Carbon Tax

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于動態(tài)邊際減排成本模擬的碳排放權(quán)交易與碳稅選擇機制，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。