發(fā)布時(shí)間：2017-12-27 01:05

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于數(shù)據(jù)分析的高考志愿決策模型研究　出處：《山東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 數(shù)據(jù)分析 位次轉(zhuǎn)換 概率模型 選擇傾向 決策模型

【摘要】：每年的高考無疑是年度最受關(guān)注事件之一,牽動(dòng)著億萬家庭的心。高考對(duì)于考生本人及家庭均有著重要的意義,學(xué)校、家庭、社會(huì)等對(duì)高考也極其重視,高考被很多考生及考生家長視為人生的一次轉(zhuǎn)折。想要進(jìn)入理想大學(xué)并非簡(jiǎn)單考出一個(gè)理想的成績,志愿填報(bào)同樣是決定能否進(jìn)入理想院校或理想專業(yè)的關(guān)鍵因素,但志愿填報(bào)相對(duì)于高考而言其重視度不夠,考生及其家長投入大量時(shí)間及金錢希望能在高考中取得好成績,相對(duì)忽視志愿填報(bào)環(huán)節(jié)。此外,由于資源獲取等方面的局限性,考生及家長不能獲得足夠的信息用于指導(dǎo)志愿填報(bào)�？忌汲龊贸煽兪乔疤�,填好志愿是關(guān)鍵。因此志愿填報(bào)的地位對(duì)于考生來說應(yīng)該僅次于高考,可以將其視為考生的“第二次高考”。十年寒窗,毀于一“報(bào)”,將成為考生終生的遺憾。在梯度志愿下,每年都有很多考生因?yàn)橹驹柑顖?bào)的失誤而未能走進(jìn)理想院校。隨著平行志愿的實(shí)行,平行志愿使考生擁有了更多的選擇機(jī)會(huì),但考生志愿決策失誤的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在,同樣會(huì)因?yàn)閳?bào)考失誤而無法走進(jìn)理想的院校。有部分老師、考生及考生家長不能很好的對(duì)以往數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,造成填報(bào)志愿時(shí)出現(xiàn)偏差甚至是失誤,導(dǎo)致高分考生沒能進(jìn)入自己心儀的大學(xué)甚至落榜。高考志愿填報(bào)是高考錄取工作中不可缺少的重要環(huán)節(jié),并被許多人稱為“第二次高考”。然而,每年都有大量的考生由于無法有效的對(duì)志愿填報(bào)信息進(jìn)行分析處理,只能簡(jiǎn)單的采用表面信息作為考生志愿填報(bào)的依據(jù),導(dǎo)致高分考生最終無法進(jìn)入自己理想的院校與專業(yè),甚至落榜。文章針對(duì)報(bào)考中出現(xiàn)的問題,對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了科學(xué)的分析與處理,幫助考生合理的選擇院校與專業(yè),減小高分考生進(jìn)入不理想院校專業(yè)甚至落榜的可能性。由于不同年份高考信息的不一致性以及院校錄取的波動(dòng)性,導(dǎo)致考生無法根據(jù)現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)正確的選擇合適的專業(yè)與院校。本文提出了一種基于數(shù)據(jù)分析的志愿決策模型。首先通過分?jǐn)?shù)—位次—分?jǐn)?shù)的轉(zhuǎn)換,將數(shù)據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化;在此基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)各院校不同年份招生人數(shù)的變動(dòng)自適應(yīng)的選擇合適的數(shù)據(jù)分析系數(shù),讓歷年分?jǐn)?shù)信息更具有參考價(jià)值。然后根據(jù)院校波動(dòng)類型,確定平滑系數(shù),對(duì)院校錄取分?jǐn)?shù)的趨勢(shì)變動(dòng)進(jìn)行二次指數(shù)平滑預(yù)測(cè),確定模型中的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn),建立錄取概率模型;根據(jù)提出的模型計(jì)算院校錄取概率,將院校依概率進(jìn)行分層聚類,為考生確定報(bào)考院校的范圍;最后通過考生對(duì)院校特征偏好的選取及評(píng)分,計(jì)算院校與考生理想院校之間的相似度,并以此為評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)之一,進(jìn)一步完成院校推薦。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,該決策模型能夠根據(jù)考生的分?jǐn)?shù)、自身?xiàng)l件及選擇偏好等因素有效的為考生提供志愿報(bào)考中的決策支持。
[Abstract]:Every year, the college entrance examination is undoubtedly one of the most important events of the year, affecting the hearts of hundreds of millions of families. The college entrance examination is very important for the examinees and their families. Schools, families and society also attach great importance to the college entrance examination. The college entrance examination is regarded as a turning point in life by many examinees and parents. Want to enter the ideal university is not simply to test an ideal result, voluntary reporting is also determined whether to enter the key factors of ideal professional institutions or ideal, but relative to the entrance voluntary reporting its importance is not enough, the candidates and their parents spend a lot of time and money, hope to get good grades in college entrance examination, the relative neglect of voluntary reporting links. In addition, due to the limitations of resource acquisition, candidates and parents can not obtain sufficient information to guide voluntary reporting. Examinees make good grades are the precondition, and the key is to fill in a good job. Therefore, the status of volunteering should be second only to the college entrance examination for examinees, which can be regarded as the "second college entrance examination" of the examinee. The long time, was destroyed in a "newspaper", the candidates will become a life-long regret. At the gradient of volunteering, many candidates have failed to enter the ideal college every year because of their voluntary mistakes. With the implementation of parallel volunteer, parallel voting makes candidates have more choice opportunities, but the risk of candidates' decision-making errors still exist, and it will fail to enter ideal colleges because of failing to register. Some of the teachers, students and parents can not be a good analysis of previous data, causing the deviation when completing the volunteer or even lead to mistakes, scores of candidates failed to enter their favorite college or even failed. The voluntary filling in the college entrance examination is an indispensable part of the entrance examination of the college entrance examination, and many people call it "the second national college entrance examination". However, there are a lot of candidates due to the lack of effective for voluntary reporting of information analysis and processing each year, simply by using the surface information as candidates voluntary reporting basis, resulting in high score candidates ultimately unable to enter their ideal colleges and professional, and even failed. According to the report the problems of data analysis and processing science, help colleges and professional choice candidates reasonable, reduce the scores of candidates into the ideal colleges even failed possibility. Due to the inconsistency of college entrance examination information in different years and the volatility of college admission, candidates can not choose the right majors and colleges according to the existing data. In this paper, a voluntary decision model based on data analysis is proposed. First, through the conversion fraction - ranking scores, data standardization; on this basis, according to the change of the college enrollment adaptive in different years the choice of the appropriate data analysis coefficient, let number information is more valuable. Then according to the fluctuation of college types, determine the smoothing coefficient, the change trend of admission two exponential smoothing prediction for colleges, determine the key points in the model, the establishment of admission probability model; calculation of college admission probability based on the proposed model, the probability of college level clustering, determine the scope for the candidates to apply for college; finally the candidates for the college selection and feature preference score, computing the similarity between colleges and universities and the ideal candidates, as one of the evaluation index, further complete the college recommended. The experimental results show that the decision-making model can effectively provide decision support for candidates in volunteer registration according to their scores, their own conditions and preferences.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：G637.3

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