【摘要】：目的通過(guò)用真實(shí)案例進(jìn)行擬合,評(píng)價(jià)Reed-Frost模型在水痘暴發(fā)中的應(yīng)用效果。方法從中國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制信息系統(tǒng),下載2014-2016年南寧市江南區(qū)4起水痘暴發(fā)疫情的流行病學(xué)調(diào)查報(bào)告和結(jié)案報(bào)告,利用其原始發(fā)病數(shù)據(jù),建立Reed-Frost數(shù)學(xué)模型并進(jìn)行擬合,評(píng)價(jià)其擬合效果。結(jié)果此次水痘流行各代病例出現(xiàn)的間隔為3~7 d,與水痘潛伏期一致。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),當(dāng)在A、B、C、D 4所小學(xué)的有效接觸率分別為0.0021、0.0039、0.0022和0.0026時(shí),χ~2值最小,此時(shí)模型算得各代病例數(shù)與實(shí)際值最接近,差異無(wú)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義。結(jié)論 Reed-Frost模型對(duì)自然狀態(tài)下水痘暴發(fā)疫情擬合效果較理想,表明該模型比較適用于水痘暴發(fā)的理論流行病學(xué)研究。
[Abstract]:Objective to evaluate the application of Reed-Frost model in varicella outbreak by using real cases. Methods from China Disease Prevention and Control Information system, the epidemiological investigation report and closing report of 4 chickenpox outbreaks in Jiangnan District of Nanning City from 2014-2016 were downloaded. The Reed-Frost mathematical model was established and fitted by using the original incidence data. The fitting effect was evaluated. Results the interval of each generation of chickenpox epidemic cases was 3 ~ 7 days, which was consistent with the incubation period of chickenpox. The results showed that the 蠂 ~ 2 value was the smallest when the effective contact rates were 0.0021 ~ 1 / 0.0039 / 0.0022 and 0.0026 respectively in Agna BU C ~ 4 primary school, and the results showed that the number of cases in each generation was the closest to the actual value, and the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion the Reed-Frost model is suitable for the theoretical epidemiological study of chickenpox outbreaks in natural condition, which indicates that the model is more suitable for the theoretical epidemiological study of chickenpox outbreaks.
【作者單位】： 廣西醫(yī)科大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院流行病學(xué)教研室;廣西南寧市江南區(qū)疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【基金】：廣西醫(yī)科大學(xué)校級(jí)資助項(xiàng)目(2017JGA001)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：R181.3;R511.5

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