本文選題：流感流行　切入點：流感樣病例監(jiān)測　出處：《現(xiàn)代預(yù)防醫(yī)學(xué)》2017年10期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的描述2009年流感大流行后江蘇省流感樣病例的流行特征和病原學(xué)變化規(guī)律,探索江蘇省流感流行金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的確定方法,為流感流行設(shè)立科學(xué)的預(yù)警閾值提供依據(jù)。方法以2010-2015年的流感哨點醫(yī)院監(jiān)測和網(wǎng)絡(luò)實驗室數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),采用描述性的方法分析江蘇省2009年流感大流行后的流感流行特征;采用流感病毒最高陽性檢出率的30%(20%~40%)作為流感流行高峰來臨的起始點的閾值,探索適合江蘇省流感流行的金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。結(jié)果流感病毒陽性率和流感樣病例變化趨勢基本一致,一年有冬春季和夏季2個檢出高峰;在流感病毒各亞型演變規(guī)律方面,2009年以后,流感毒株主要為季H3,新甲H1和B型(Yamagata系和Victoria系)共同循環(huán),夏季高峰以甲型H3流行為主,冬季高峰B型和甲型(新甲H1和/或甲型H3)共同流行。結(jié)論 2009年流感大流行后,江蘇省循環(huán)毒株以甲型H3N2,新甲H1N1和B型為主,新甲H1N1總體流行強度不高;江蘇省采用歷史基線2年的核酸陽性率高值中位數(shù)的30%作為判定流感流行的閾值可獲得相對較好的應(yīng)用價值。
[Abstract]:Objective to describe the epidemiological characteristics and etiological changes of influenza like cases in Jiangsu Province after the influenza pandemic in 2009 and to explore the method of determining the gold standard for influenza epidemic in Jiangsu Province. Methods based on the data of influenza sentinel hospital surveillance and network laboratory from 2010 to 2015, the characteristics of influenza epidemic after the influenza epidemic in Jiangsu Province in 2009 were analyzed by descriptive method. Using 30% of the highest positive rate of influenza virus as the threshold for the onset of the influenza epidemic peak, and exploring the gold standard suitable for influenza epidemic in Jiangsu Province, the results showed that the positive rate of influenza virus was basically the same as the trend of influenza like cases. There were two detected peaks in winter, spring and summer. After 2009, the influenza virus strains were mainly seasonal H3, new H1 and B type Yamagata strain and Victoria strain), and the summer peak was mainly A H3 epidemic. Conclusion after the influenza pandemic in 2009, the circulating strains in Jiangsu Province were mainly A H 3N 2, A H1N1 and B, and the overall epidemic intensity of new A H1N1 was not high. In Jiangsu Province, 30% of the median nucleic acid positive rate of 2 years' historical baseline was used as the threshold to determine influenza epidemic.
【作者單位】： 江蘇省疾病預(yù)防控制中心急性傳染病防制所;
【基金】：國家衛(wèi)生計生委科研基金(W201303) 重大新發(fā)傳染病綜合防控科技示范工程(BE2015714) 江蘇省臨床醫(yī)學(xué)科技專項(BL2014081) 江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金(BK20151595)
【分類號】：R181.3;R511.7
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本文編號：1606516