使用生態(tài)位模型預(yù)測(cè)腎綜合征出血熱傳播風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-04-11 06:40
【摘要】：腎綜合征出血熱(Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, HFRS)是一種以鼠類為主要宿主和動(dòng)物傳染源的自然疫源性疾病,以發(fā)熱,出血和腎功能受損為主要臨床特征。我國(guó)是世界上HFRS發(fā)病最多的國(guó)家,據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),世界上90%多的病例都集中在中國(guó)。湖南省自1963年首次發(fā)現(xiàn)該病以來,累計(jì)有90%以上的縣(市、區(qū))曾報(bào)告發(fā)病,成為全國(guó)的高發(fā)省份之一,嚴(yán)重影響著人民的健康。HFRS的分布、傳播和流行受到地理景觀、氣候和人類活動(dòng)等自然、社會(huì)因素的影響。 本研究以湖南省湘江中下游地區(qū)和長(zhǎng)沙市為例,收集整理HFRS人群病例數(shù)據(jù)和生態(tài)環(huán)境數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)合地理信息系統(tǒng)(Geographic Information System, GIS)、遙感技術(shù)(Remote Sensing, RS)和生態(tài)位模型(Ecological Niche Models, ENMs)分析研究區(qū)HFRS的時(shí)空分布特征,探索HFRS的傳播規(guī)律和環(huán)境危險(xiǎn)因素,并對(duì)潛在的傳播風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),主要研究結(jié)果如下： (1)HFRS病例數(shù)據(jù)在時(shí)空分布上呈一定規(guī)律。在時(shí)間尺度上,HFRS發(fā)病人數(shù)存在明顯的季節(jié)性變化。湘江中下游地區(qū)1月,4月～6月和11月～12月是HFRS發(fā)病的高峰期,而8月～10月的HFRS發(fā)病數(shù)明顯較低；長(zhǎng)沙市1月,4月～6月和11月～12月是HFRS的發(fā)病高峰期,8月～10月的HFRS病例數(shù)較少。在空間尺度上,HFRS病例暴發(fā)呈一定的空間聚集性。湘江中下游地區(qū)HFRS病例主要集中分布在西部(包括望城縣,長(zhǎng)沙市區(qū),湘潭縣和湘潭市區(qū)),長(zhǎng)沙市HFRS病例多集中在西部(寧鄉(xiāng)縣,望城縣和市轄區(qū))和瀏陽(yáng)市的西北部。 (2)生態(tài)位模型預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果。湘江中下游地區(qū)HFRS高傳播風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要集中在中部(望城縣,長(zhǎng)沙市區(qū),湘潭縣,湘潭市區(qū),株洲縣和株洲市區(qū)),南部(衡山縣和衡東縣)和北部(湘陰縣和汨羅縣)傳播風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對(duì)較低；長(zhǎng)沙市HFRS高傳播風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要集中在中部偏西地區(qū)(長(zhǎng)沙縣,長(zhǎng)沙市區(qū),望城縣和寧鄉(xiāng)縣東部),東部地區(qū)(瀏陽(yáng)市)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏低。 (3) HFRS發(fā)病率與相關(guān)環(huán)境因素關(guān)系密切。在湘江中下游地區(qū)和長(zhǎng)沙市,氣象因子(主要是溫度和降水),NDVI和土地利用均是影響HFRS傳播與流行的主要環(huán)境危險(xiǎn)因素。HFRS傳播高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)主要集中在年平均溫度18℃左右和年降水量1500mm至1600mm左右的區(qū)域oHFRS傳播風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)的月平均NDVI值明顯低于非風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)的月平均NDVI值,但變化幅度相對(duì)較大。5月和7月的NDVI值對(duì)HFRS的傳播有著顯著影響。城鎮(zhèn)建筑用地和耕地是HFRS的主要用地風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本研究在分析HFRS病例時(shí)空分布特征的基礎(chǔ)上,有效獲取研究區(qū)HFRS傳播的主要環(huán)境危險(xiǎn)因素,同時(shí)成功預(yù)測(cè)區(qū)域內(nèi)HFRS傳播的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)地區(qū),為區(qū)域HFRS疫情防控措施的制定提供有效的理論依據(jù)；同時(shí),結(jié)合GIS和ENMs對(duì)HFRS傳播風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行研究,可有效地解決傳統(tǒng)傳染病研究在疾病流行強(qiáng)度預(yù)測(cè)和傳播區(qū)域預(yù)測(cè)相結(jié)合上的不足；該研究也可為類似傳染病的研究提供方法與借鑒。
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease characterized by fever, hemorrhage and impairment of renal function. (Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease with rodents as the main host and animal infection source. China has the highest incidence of HFRS in the world. According to statistics, more than 90% of the cases in the world are concentrated in China. Since the first discovery of the disease in Hunan Province in 1963, more than 90% of the counties (cities, districts) have reported the incidence of the disease, which has become one of the high incidence provinces in the country, seriously affecting the health of the people. The distribution, spread and prevalence of HFRS are affected by the geographical landscape. Climate and human activities, such as natural, social factors. Taking the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River and Changsha City in Hunan Province as examples, this study collected and sorted out HFRS case data and eco-environmental data, combined with (Geographic Information System, GIS), remote sensing technology (Remote Sensing, RS) and niche model (Ecological Niche Models,. ENMs) analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of HFRS in the study area, explores the law of HFRS transmission and environmental risk factors, and predicts the potential transmission risk areas. The main results are as follows: (1) the spatial and temporal distribution of HFRS cases is regular. On the time scale, there are obvious seasonal changes in the number of HFRS patients. In the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River, the peak of HFRS was in January, April to June and November to December, but the number of HFRS in August to October was lower than that in August to October. The incidence of HFRS in Changsha was peak in January, April-June and November-December, and the number of HFRS cases from August to October was relatively small. On the spatial scale, the outbreak of HFRS cases showed a certain spatial aggregation. The cases of HFRS in the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River were mainly distributed in the west (including Wangcheng County, Changsha City, Xiangtan County and Xiangtan City), while the HFRS cases in Changsha City were mostly concentrated in the West (Ningxiang County, Wangcheng County and Municipal District) and the northwest of Liuyang City. (2) the prediction results of niche model. The high risk of HFRS transmission in the middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River is mainly concentrated in the central part (Wangcheng County, Changsha City, Xiangtan County, Xiangtan City, Zhuzhou County and Zhuzhou City). The risk of transmission in the south (Hengshan County and Hengdong County) and the north (Xiangyin County and Miluo County) is relatively low; The high transmission risk of HFRS in Changsha was mainly concentrated in the west-central region (Changsha, Wangcheng and Ningxiang), while the risk in the eastern part (Liuyang) was lower than that in the west-central region (Changsha, Wangcheng and Ningxiang). (3) the incidence of HFRS was closely related to the related environmental factors. In the middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River and Changsha City, meteorological factors (mainly temperature and precipitation), NDVI and land use are the main environmental risk factors affecting the spread and prevalence of HFRS. The high risk areas of HFRS transmission are mainly concentrated in the area with annual average temperature of about 18 鈩，
本文編號(hào)：2456166
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease characterized by fever, hemorrhage and impairment of renal function. (Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease with rodents as the main host and animal infection source. China has the highest incidence of HFRS in the world. According to statistics, more than 90% of the cases in the world are concentrated in China. Since the first discovery of the disease in Hunan Province in 1963, more than 90% of the counties (cities, districts) have reported the incidence of the disease, which has become one of the high incidence provinces in the country, seriously affecting the health of the people. The distribution, spread and prevalence of HFRS are affected by the geographical landscape. Climate and human activities, such as natural, social factors. Taking the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River and Changsha City in Hunan Province as examples, this study collected and sorted out HFRS case data and eco-environmental data, combined with (Geographic Information System, GIS), remote sensing technology (Remote Sensing, RS) and niche model (Ecological Niche Models,. ENMs) analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of HFRS in the study area, explores the law of HFRS transmission and environmental risk factors, and predicts the potential transmission risk areas. The main results are as follows: (1) the spatial and temporal distribution of HFRS cases is regular. On the time scale, there are obvious seasonal changes in the number of HFRS patients. In the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River, the peak of HFRS was in January, April to June and November to December, but the number of HFRS in August to October was lower than that in August to October. The incidence of HFRS in Changsha was peak in January, April-June and November-December, and the number of HFRS cases from August to October was relatively small. On the spatial scale, the outbreak of HFRS cases showed a certain spatial aggregation. The cases of HFRS in the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River were mainly distributed in the west (including Wangcheng County, Changsha City, Xiangtan County and Xiangtan City), while the HFRS cases in Changsha City were mostly concentrated in the West (Ningxiang County, Wangcheng County and Municipal District) and the northwest of Liuyang City. (2) the prediction results of niche model. The high risk of HFRS transmission in the middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River is mainly concentrated in the central part (Wangcheng County, Changsha City, Xiangtan County, Xiangtan City, Zhuzhou County and Zhuzhou City). The risk of transmission in the south (Hengshan County and Hengdong County) and the north (Xiangyin County and Miluo County) is relatively low; The high transmission risk of HFRS in Changsha was mainly concentrated in the west-central region (Changsha, Wangcheng and Ningxiang), while the risk in the eastern part (Liuyang) was lower than that in the west-central region (Changsha, Wangcheng and Ningxiang). (3) the incidence of HFRS was closely related to the related environmental factors. In the middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River and Changsha City, meteorological factors (mainly temperature and precipitation), NDVI and land use are the main environmental risk factors affecting the spread and prevalence of HFRS. The high risk areas of HFRS transmission are mainly concentrated in the area with annual average temperature of about 18 鈩，
本文編號(hào)：2456166
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