本文選題：布魯氏桿菌病 + GIS、R�。� 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古科技大學(xué)包頭醫(yī)學(xué)院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：目的（1）應(yīng)用描述流行病學(xué)方法分析內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)布病發(fā)病的流行趨勢(shì)及等級(jí)分布特征;（2）應(yīng)用GIS軟件和R軟件技術(shù)揭示內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)2006-2010年布病的空間分布特征及空間聚集性情況;（3）選用適當(dāng)?shù)念A(yù)測(cè)方法預(yù)測(cè)其發(fā)病率。方法利用傳統(tǒng)流行病學(xué)方法描述布病的三間分布及等級(jí)分布；利用GIS軟件制作布病年均發(fā)病率的地圖并用R軟件進(jìn)行空間相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析；應(yīng)用灰色系統(tǒng)GM（1,1）模型，對(duì)布病的發(fā)病率作出預(yù)測(cè)并進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)果（1）五年間布病發(fā)病率居全區(qū)法定傳染病發(fā)病第三位，發(fā)病率呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì)，發(fā)病人群以農(nóng)民為主，平均發(fā)病率為28.67/10萬(wàn)；發(fā)病年齡集中在35-45歲之間，平均發(fā)病率為14.65/10萬(wàn)；性別主要以男性為主，，男女性別比為1.22：1；發(fā)病時(shí)間主要集中在6月份，平均發(fā)病率為7.25/10萬(wàn)；發(fā)病率較高地區(qū)主要為錫林浩特、烏蘭察布、呼倫貝爾，平均發(fā)病率分別為34.83/10萬(wàn)、10.77/10萬(wàn)、7.09/10萬(wàn)。按分級(jí)方法統(tǒng)計(jì)，內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)布病高發(fā)病率地區(qū)有3個(gè)，占全自治區(qū)的25%；較高發(fā)病率地區(qū)沒(méi)有；中等發(fā)病率地區(qū)1個(gè)，占8.33%；其余66.67%地區(qū)都是發(fā)病率較低的地區(qū)；（2）制作布病2006-2010年各年發(fā)病率分布圖及年均發(fā)病率分布圖，空間分析結(jié)果顯示布病發(fā)病不存在空間集聚現(xiàn)象。（3）通過(guò)GM（1,1）模型預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)現(xiàn)布病發(fā)病率呈上升趨勢(shì)，經(jīng)擬合精度檢驗(yàn)顯示該模型預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果較好。結(jié)論本文利用GIS軟件制作布病發(fā)病的電子地圖，用R軟件對(duì)五年間布病年均發(fā)病率進(jìn)行空間統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，整個(gè)分析過(guò)程簡(jiǎn)單明了，將分析過(guò)程列于文章當(dāng)中，形象的說(shuō)明了GIS軟件和R軟件的實(shí)用性。然后利用GM（1,1）灰色模型對(duì)布病的發(fā)病率進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果予以評(píng)估，證明了該模型應(yīng)用的可信度。
[Abstract]:Objective 1) to analyze the epidemic trend and grade distribution of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region by descriptive epidemiology. To reveal the spatial distribution and spatial distribution of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia from 2006 to 2010 by using GIS software and R software technology. The incidence rate was predicted by appropriate prediction method. Methods using the traditional epidemiological method to describe the three distribution and grade distribution of brucellosis, using GIS software to make map of annual incidence of brucellosis and using R software to carry out spatial correlation statistical analysis, and using the grey system GM-1) model. Forecast and evaluate the incidence of brucellosis. Results (1) the incidence of brucellosis was the third highest in the whole district during the past five years, and the incidence rate was on the rise. The average incidence rate was 28.67 / 100 000 among farmers, and the average incidence rate was 14.65% / 100 000 at the age of 35-45 years. The main sex is male, the ratio of male to female is 1.22: 1; the onset time is mainly concentrated in June, the average incidence rate is 7.25 / 100 thousand; the main areas with high incidence are Xilinhaote, Ulanchab, and Hulunbeir. The average incidence was 34.83 / 100, 000, 10.77 / 100, 000 or 709 / 100, 000, respectively. According to the classification method, there are three areas with high incidence of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, accounting for 25% of the whole region; none in the higher incidence areas; and one region with a moderate incidence rate. Accounting for 8.33%; the remaining 66.67% of the regions are low incidence areas.) the annual incidence distribution map and the annual incidence distribution map of brucellosis from 2006 to 2010 are made. The spatial analysis results showed that there was no spatial agglomeration in the incidence of brucellosis. (1) the incidence rate of brucellosis was found to be on the rise by GM1 / 1) model, and the fitting accuracy test showed that the model had better prediction results. Conclusion the electronic map of the incidence of brucellosis is made by using GIS software, and the average annual incidence of brucellosis in five years is analyzed by R software. The whole analysis process is simple and clear, and the analysis process is listed in the article. The utility of GIS software and R software is illustrated graphically. Then the incidence of brucellosis was predicted by using GM1 / 1) grey model, and the prediction results were evaluated, which proved the reliability of the application of the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古科技大學(xué)包頭醫(yī)學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：R516.7

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