發(fā)布時間：2018-05-28 04:15

  本文選題：瘧疾 + 消除��； 參考：《中國人獸共患病學(xué)報》2015年11期

【摘要】：目的在福建省連續(xù)十年沒有當(dāng)?shù)馗腥警懠驳谋尘跋?建立消除瘧疾地區(qū)重新流行風(fēng)險指標(biāo)體系并確定各指標(biāo)權(quán)重。方法遵循專家德爾菲法和層次分析法,選擇恰當(dāng)符合我省瘧疾防控實際的指標(biāo)建立評價指標(biāo)體系,并確定各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重。結(jié)果專家咨詢的積極系數(shù)為100%,權(quán)威系數(shù)為0.842,Kendall協(xié)調(diào)系數(shù)為0.493,χ2=29.5740,P0.001。構(gòu)建福建省消除瘧疾地區(qū)重新流行風(fēng)險指標(biāo)評估體系,包括5個一級指標(biāo),11個二級指標(biāo),指標(biāo)體系的內(nèi)在信度Cronbach’s alpha系數(shù)為0.77250.7,基本符合要求。結(jié)構(gòu)效度分析,KMO值為0.527,Bartlett’s檢驗的χ2=80.807,P=0.0130.05,適合作因子分析。評價指標(biāo)的公因子方差均大于0.74,5個主成分的累積貢獻(xiàn)率為85.743%。根據(jù)專家綜合評分應(yīng)用層次分析法確定各級指標(biāo)權(quán)重,其中一級指標(biāo)包括傳染源、傳瘧媒介、易感人群、自然因素和社會因素,權(quán)重分別為0.263 8,0.510 0,0.129 6,0.032 9,0.063 6;λmax=5.237 2,CI=0.059 3,CR=0.052 9。各評價指標(biāo)的組合權(quán)重中,媒介按蚊種類的權(quán)重最高,為0.340 2,各縣輸入型病例數(shù)權(quán)重第2,為0.230 8,符合我省目前瘧疾消除的防控現(xiàn)狀。結(jié)論選擇恰當(dāng)符合福建省實際的指標(biāo)建立了消除瘧疾地區(qū)重新流行指標(biāo)體系,為今后科學(xué)、客觀、全面的對瘧疾重新流行的風(fēng)險評價提供基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a re-epidemic risk index system and determine the weight of each index under the background of no local malaria infection in Fujian province for ten consecutive years. Methods according to the expert Delphi method and Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the evaluation index system was established and the weight of each index was determined. Results the positive coefficient of expert consultation was 100, the authority coefficient was 0.842 Kendall coordination coefficient was 0.493, 蠂 2 was 29.5740% P 0.001. The evaluation system of re-epidemic risk index in malaria elimination area in Fujian Province was constructed, including 5 first-grade indexes and 11 second-class indexes. The intrinsic reliability Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the index system was 0.77250.7, which basically met the requirements. The KMO value of the structural validity analysis was 0.527m Bartletts-test 蠂 _ 2 / 80.807 / P _ (0.0130.05), which was suitable for factor analysis. The common factor variance of the evaluation index was greater than 0.74, and the cumulative contribution rate of the five principal components was 85.743. According to the comprehensive score of experts, the weight of indexes at all levels was determined by AHP. The first grade indexes included infection source, malaria vector, susceptible population, natural factor and social factor. The weights were 0.263 80.50100 / 0.1296 (0.032 / 90.063), and 位 max=5.237 _ 2CII _ (0.059) ~ (3) CRT 0.0552 / 952, respectively. Among the combined weights of each evaluation index, Anopheles vector species had the highest weight (0.340 2), and the number of input-type cases in each county was the second (0.230 8), which was in line with the current situation of malaria control and prevention in our province. Conclusion the re-prevalence index system of malaria elimination in Fujian Province is established by choosing the appropriate index which can provide a scientific objective and comprehensive risk assessment for malaria re-prevalence.
【作者單位】： 福建醫(yī)科大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院;福建省疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【分類號】：R531.3

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本文編號：1945242