本文選題：手足口病　切入點(diǎn)：傳染率　出處：《復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)與復(fù)雜性科學(xué)》2017年03期

【摘要】：以安徽省手足口病為例,估算手足口病傳染率的季節(jié)性,分析人口流動(dòng)與手足口病傳染率季節(jié)性之間的關(guān)系。采用時(shí)間序列模型及簡(jiǎn)單整體模型估算了手足口病隨時(shí)間變化的傳染率,分析了手足口病傳染率的季節(jié)性。通過線性回歸模型分析了人口流動(dòng)(公路旅客運(yùn)輸量)與手足口病的傳染率季節(jié)性之間的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明兩種模型估算的手足口病傳染率均有顯著的年季節(jié)性,傳染率峰值發(fā)生在每年2月春運(yùn)期間;安徽省人口流動(dòng)手足口病傳染率季節(jié)性有顯著影響。這些研究結(jié)果有助于分析手足口病的動(dòng)態(tài)傳播特性,能夠更好地解釋手足口病的報(bào)告發(fā)病數(shù)周期性的成因。
[Abstract]:Taking Anhui Province as an example of HFMD, estimates the seasonal HFMD incidence rate, analysis of population flow and HFMD seasonal relationships between the infection rate of HFMD. With the change of time infection rate was estimated by using time series model and simple model, analyzed the seasonal HFMD incidence rate through linear regression model analysis of the floating population (highway passenger traffic) relationship between the seasonal rate of hand foot and mouth disease and infection. The results show that the annual seasonal two models to estimate the HFMD infection rate significantly, infection rate peak occurred in February each year during the Spring Festival in Anhui province; floating population HFMD the disease rate has a significant effect on seasonal dynamic propagation characteristics. These results are helpful to the analysis of hand foot and mouth disease, can better explain the origin of the periodic report the incidence of HFMD.

【作者單位】： 青島大學(xué)復(fù)雜性科學(xué)研究所;
【基金】：山東省科技發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2014GGX101031)
【分類號(hào)】：R181.3;R512.5

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1 胡新利;周義倉;;具有周期傳染率的SIR傳染病模型的周期解[J];生物數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2008年01期

2 張彤;方道元;;一類潛伏期和染病期均傳染且具非線性傳染率的流行病模型[J];生物數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2006年03期

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本文編號(hào)：1720564