本文選題：戊型病毒性肝炎　切入點：空間自相關(guān)　出處：《浙江師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國是肝炎大國,甲肝和乙肝是我國最主要的兩型肝炎。但近幾年的研究資料表明,伴隨著我國新生兒進(jìn)行乙肝疫苗普種和甲肝疫苗的推廣,甲肝和乙肝在我國的危害逐漸得到控制并趨減小,然而戊肝的危害卻慢慢凸顯且成為我國的一個重要公共衛(wèi)生問題。正確認(rèn)識戊肝空間分布特征及其影響因子,對制定切實有效的防預(yù)措施具有重要意義。 本文主要借助arcGIS、GeoDa、Excel等軟件,提取了2005～2010年全國大陸31個省、市、自治區(qū)的6年戊肝發(fā)病數(shù)、人口數(shù)和中國電子地圖等資料,并建立具有空間屬性的戊肝發(fā)病數(shù)據(jù)庫；運用GeoDa空間統(tǒng)計軟件,采用空間自相關(guān)分析對戊肝發(fā)病進(jìn)行空間聚集性研究；在此基礎(chǔ)上,采用時空掃描統(tǒng)計軟件(SaTScan)對疾病發(fā)病的冷熱點區(qū)域進(jìn)行判定,同時對發(fā)病風(fēng)險進(jìn)行預(yù)測,并借助SPSS軟件將戊肝發(fā)病率與地理因子進(jìn)行空間回歸分析,從地理角度探討戊肝成因,為我國戊肝防治提供理論依據(jù)和新思路。 經(jīng)過分析研究,主要得出以下結(jié)論：全局Moran's I指數(shù)表明,研究時段的Moran's I指數(shù)均大于0,數(shù)據(jù)存在空間正相關(guān),即呈現(xiàn)高高聚集和低低聚集格局。局域Moran's Ii、 Moran散點圖及LISA積聚圖顯示,雖然6年來一些地區(qū)的戊肝發(fā)病率有些變動,但整體上我國東部地區(qū)多為高值高鄰居分布,西部內(nèi)陸地區(qū)多為低值低鄰居分布。采用空間掃描統(tǒng)計進(jìn)行熱點區(qū)域研究,結(jié)果與LISA積聚圖較為吻合,從2005～2010年,戊肝發(fā)病的熱點區(qū)域主要還是在東部沿海地區(qū),但是由多熱點向單熱點演化,并且熱點區(qū)域范圍增大。即戊肝發(fā)病由零散的點狀分布向連續(xù)的塊狀分布發(fā)展,形勢較為嚴(yán)峻。采用風(fēng)險評估法對熱點區(qū)域的發(fā)病趨勢進(jìn)行研究,得出我國高發(fā)病風(fēng)險值呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,低發(fā)病風(fēng)險值呈上升態(tài)勢。結(jié)合全局Moran指數(shù),戊肝發(fā)病風(fēng)險的集聚性呈減弱趨勢,即全國的戊肝高發(fā)病風(fēng)險隨著時間的變化其發(fā)病集聚性將淡化,意味著發(fā)病風(fēng)險區(qū)域呈擴(kuò)大趨勢�；诳臻g回歸模型中的空間滯后模型(SLM),將戊肝發(fā)病與地理因子做回歸分析,結(jié)果表明,戊肝發(fā)病與居民消費水平和工業(yè)污水排放呈正相關(guān),與生活污水排放呈負(fù)相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:China is a big hepatitis country, hepatitis A and hepatitis B are the most important hepatitis two hepatitis in our country. However, the research data in recent years show that with the popularization of hepatitis B vaccine and hepatitis A vaccine for newborns in our country, The harm of hepatitis A and hepatitis B in China was gradually controlled and gradually decreased, but the harm of hepatitis E was gradually prominent and became an important public health problem in our country. It is of great significance to make effective preventive measures. In this paper, with the help of arcGIS-GeoDa-Excel software, the incidence of HEV in 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2010 was extracted, and the number of HEV in 6 years, population and electronic map of China were collected, and the database of HEV disease with spatial attributes was established. Using GeoDa spatial statistical software, spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to study the spatial aggregation of hepatitis E, and on the basis of this, the cold hot spot region of the disease was determined by Spatio-temporal scanning statistical software (SaTScan). At the same time, the risk of hepatitis E was predicted, and the incidence of hepatitis E and geographical factors were analyzed by spatial regression analysis with the help of SPSS software. The causes of hepatitis E were discussed from the geographical point of view, which provided a theoretical basis and a new way of thinking for prevention and treatment of hepatitis E in China. The main conclusions are as follows: the global Moran's I index shows that the Moran's I index of the study period is greater than 0, and there is a positive spatial correlation between the data. That is, the pattern of high aggregation and low aggregation. Local Moran's life, Moran scatter plot and LISA accumulation diagram show that although the incidence of hepatitis E in some areas has changed somewhat in the past six years, the overall distribution of high value and high neighbors in the eastern part of our country is mostly high. Most of the inland areas in western China are low value and low neighbors. The results of spatial scanning statistics are consistent with the LISA accumulation map. From 2005 to 2010, the hot spots of hepatitis E were mainly located in the eastern coastal areas. However, the evolution from multiple hot spots to single hot spots, and the expansion of the hot spot region. That is, the incidence of hepatitis E develops from scattered point distribution to continuous block distribution, and the situation is more severe. The risk assessment method is used to study the trend of occurrence in hot spots. The results show that the risk value of high incidence disease in China is decreasing, and the value of low risk of hepatitis E is increasing. Combined with the global Moran index, the agglomeration of the risk of hepatitis E is decreasing. That is, the risk of high incidence of HEV in the whole country will be desalinated with the change of time, which means that the risk area of HEV will be enlarged. Based on the spatial lag model in the spatial regression model, the incidence of HEV and geographical factors are analyzed by regression analysis. The results showed that the incidence of hepatitis E was positively correlated with the consumption level of residents and the discharge of industrial sewage, and negatively correlated with the discharge of domestic sewage.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：R512.6

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王勁峰,李連發(fā),葛詠,時陪中,關(guān)元秀,柏延臣,王智勇,HainingRobert;地理信息空間分析的理論體系探討[J];地理學(xué)報;2000年01期

2 廖一蘭;王勁峰;楊維中;李忠杰;金蓮梅;賴圣杰;鄭曉瑛;;傳染病多維度聚集性探測方法[J];地理學(xué)報;2012年04期

3 陳小勇,林鵬;我國紅樹植物分布的空間自相關(guān)分析[J];華東師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2000年03期

4 韓貴鋒;徐建華;王維升;馬軍杰;;重慶市大氣污染物的空間統(tǒng)計分析[J];環(huán)境科學(xué)研究;2006年05期

5 王紅亮;胡偉平;吳馳;;空間權(quán)重矩陣對空間自相關(guān)的影響分析——以湖南省城鄉(xiāng)收入差距為例[J];華南師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2010年01期

6 陸步來;王勁峰;曾光;;疾病空間聚集性研究方法[J];疾病監(jiān)測;2010年05期

7 錢海坤;楊鵬;張奕;王小莉;段瑋;王全意;;2005-2010年北京市猩紅熱發(fā)病時空掃描分析[J];疾病監(jiān)測;2011年06期

8 張可云;項目;;安徽省各地區(qū)GDP增長的空間計量研究[J];江淮論壇;2012年01期

9 萬蕾;葉曉光;;廣州地區(qū)近年急性肝炎發(fā)病特征分析[J];中國熱帶醫(yī)學(xué);2008年05期

10 龍家勇;吳承禎;洪偉;林君燕;;中國省域二氧化碳排放量的空間自相關(guān)分析[J];生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì);2011年10期

，

本文編號：1658660