本文選題：艾滋病　切入點(diǎn)：網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模迭加法　出處：《中國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：研究目的 利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模迭加法(NSUM)估計(jì)新余市居民的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模,間接估計(jì)新余市艾滋病相關(guān)高危人群規(guī)模,探討NSUM在中國(guó)用于艾滋病相關(guān)高危人群規(guī)模估計(jì)的可行性。 研究方法 在2013年10月至2014年2月間通過(guò)多階段隨機(jī)整群抽樣選取調(diào)查對(duì)象,采用面對(duì)面入戶調(diào)查的方式在新余市轄區(qū)進(jìn)行居民問(wèn)卷調(diào)查,應(yīng)用NSUM估計(jì)社區(qū)居民的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模,通過(guò)人口學(xué)特征校正、反推估計(jì)剔除估計(jì)不準(zhǔn)確的已知人群、箱式圖剔除異常值的方式對(duì)社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模的估計(jì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行校正,應(yīng)用校正后的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模、調(diào)查對(duì)象所認(rèn)識(shí)的各類艾滋病高危人群的人數(shù),間接估計(jì)新余市艾滋病相關(guān)高危人群規(guī)模。 結(jié)果 本研究共完成問(wèn)卷1382份,有效問(wèn)卷1325份,問(wèn)卷有效率為95.88%；其中分宜縣464份,渝水區(qū)861份；男性683名(51.55%),女性642名(48.45%),男女比例為1.06：1；平均年齡為35.65±17.04歲；文化程度以初中及以上為主；婚姻狀況以在婚居多；多數(shù)調(diào)查對(duì)象在當(dāng)?shù)鼐幼r(shí)間在3年及以上；新余市轄區(qū)居民社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模的均值為697。不同縣區(qū)(P0.05)、戶籍類別(P0.05)、性別(P0.05)、年齡組(P0.05)的調(diào)查對(duì)象社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)模均呈顯著性差異。 應(yīng)用NSUM估計(jì)新余市暗娼人群(FSWs)規(guī)模為2564(95%CI：2453-2676)人,嫖客人群為3030(95%CI:2909-3151)人,吸毒者為2017(95%CI：1918-42117)人,注射吸毒者為1576(95%CI：1488-1663)人,MSM為1329(95%CI：1249-1409)人,多性伴人群為4958(95%CI：4802-5113)人；嫖客人群與FSWs的規(guī)模比為1.18：1,注射吸毒者為吸毒者的78.14%；估計(jì)出FSWs的規(guī)模為新余市2013常住人口15-49歲女性人口總數(shù)的0.82%,嫖客人群的規(guī)模為新余市2013年常住人口中15-49歲男性人口總數(shù)的0.88%,MSM的規(guī)模為15-49歲男性人口總數(shù)的0.39%,多性伴人群占15-49歲人口總數(shù)的1.44%。 結(jié)論 利用NSUM可同時(shí)對(duì)多個(gè)高危人群進(jìn)行規(guī)模估計(jì),施行較為經(jīng)濟(jì)快捷,但已知人群的選擇以及NSUM固有的傳播效應(yīng)、屏障效應(yīng)以及估計(jì)效應(yīng)均會(huì)影響規(guī)模估計(jì)的結(jié)果。應(yīng)用NSUM的對(duì)暗娼和吸毒人群的估計(jì)結(jié)果較為可信,對(duì)人群流動(dòng)性較大的嫖客和MSM人群的估計(jì)結(jié)果較傳統(tǒng)規(guī)模估計(jì)方法偏低,而對(duì)注射吸毒人群的估計(jì)結(jié)果較當(dāng)?shù)毓膊块T登記數(shù)據(jù)偏高。本研究在借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)調(diào)查地區(qū)的實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)調(diào)整,為今后開展NSUM的相關(guān)研究提供了一定的借鑒和指導(dǎo)建議。
[Abstract]:Research purpose. Using the method of network scale superposition (NSUM) to estimate the social network scale of residents in Xinyu city and indirectly estimate the scale of AIDS-related high risk population in Xinyu city, and to explore the feasibility of using NSUM to estimate the scale of AIDS-related high-risk population in China. Research method. From October 2013 to February 2014, the survey subjects were selected by multi-stage random cluster sampling, and the residents were surveyed by face-to-face household survey in Xinyu City area. NSUM was used to estimate the social network scale of community residents. Through demographic feature correction, backward estimation is used to eliminate known people whose estimation is not accurate, box diagram is used to eliminate outliers, and the result of social network scale estimation is corrected by using corrected social network scale. The size of AIDS-related high-risk population in Xinyu City was estimated indirectly by the number of AIDS-related high-risk groups. Results. In this study, 1382 questionnaires and 1325 valid questionnaires were completed, and the effective rate was 95.8888, including 464 in Yixian, 861 in Yushui District, 683 in male and 642 in female, the ratio of male to female was 1.066: 1; the average age was 35.65 鹵17.04 years old; the education level was mainly in junior middle school and above, and the average age was 35.65 鹵17.04 years old, and the average age was 35.65 鹵17.04 years old, and the average age was 35.65 鹵17.04 years, and the average age was 35.65 鹵17.04 years old. Most of the respondents lived in the area for 3 years or more. The average size of social network of residents in Xinyu district was 697.There were significant differences in the scale of social network among different counties, households, sex and age group. NSUM estimates that the size of FSWs in Xinyu City is 256495 CIW: 2453-2676), the client population is 3030U 95 CI: 2909-3151), the drug addict is 2017-95 CI: 1918-42117), the injecting drug user is 157695CIW 1488-1663), the MSM is 1329995 CIW 1249-1409), and the majority of sexual partners is 495895 CIW 4802-5113). The ratio of clients to FSWs is 1.18: 1, and the ratio of injecting drug users to drug users is 78.14. The size of FSWs is estimated to be 0.82% of the total female population aged 15-49 of 2013 resident population in Xinyu City, and the size of the client population is 15-49 years old men of Xinyu City in 2013. The MSM of the total sex population is 0.39% of the male population aged 15-49, and the sexual partner group accounts for 1.44% of the total population aged 15-49 years. Conclusion. Using NSUM can estimate the scale of many high risk population at the same time, which is more economical and faster, but the choice of known population and the inherent transmission effect of NSUM. Both the barrier effect and the estimation effect will affect the results of the scale estimation. The results of the NSUM estimation for the prostitutes and drug users are more reliable, and the estimates for the people with high mobility and MSM population are lower than those of the traditional methods. However, the estimated results of injecting drug users are higher than that of local public security departments. Based on the experience of domestic and foreign countries, this study adjusts accordingly according to the actual situation of the investigation areas. It provides some reference and guidance for the research of NSUM in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：R512.91

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