本文關(guān)鍵詞： 甲型H1N1流感 時(shí)空分布 多尺度 影響因素　出處：《陜西師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文旨在分析2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行早期疫情地理時(shí)空分布特征,評(píng)價(jià)全球化背景下國(guó)際人口流動(dòng)、地區(qū)氣候環(huán)境差異對(duì)甲型H1N1流感大流行影響,為國(guó)家制定防控策略提供事實(shí)依據(jù)。首先,本文回顧了2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行過(guò)程,總結(jié)了各國(guó)針對(duì)本次疫情的防控策略。其次,通過(guò)利用基于球面距離的Ripley's K函數(shù),分析了2009年甲型H1N1流感全球大流行早期疫情的空間分布模式。時(shí)間分布上,對(duì)比2000至2012歷年甲型流感確診病例數(shù),分析不同緯度國(guó)家或地區(qū)甲型H1N1流感周新增病例數(shù)的時(shí)間分布特征。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文分析國(guó)際人口流動(dòng)和甲型H1N1流感大流行的相關(guān)性。通過(guò)構(gòu)建“出發(fā)地-目的地”航空網(wǎng)絡(luò),進(jìn)一步分析城市航空網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)甲型H1N1流感傳播的影響。最后,本文對(duì)比不同氣候環(huán)境下甲型H1N1流感的疫情,設(shè)計(jì)對(duì)照組實(shí)驗(yàn),研究疫情地的氣溫、降水、相對(duì)濕度、大氣壓、絕對(duì)濕度等5個(gè)基本氣候因素對(duì)本次流感大流行的影響。 結(jié)果表明至2009年6月底甲型H1N1流感疫情呈聚類分布,其L函數(shù)值曲線類似于全球主要城市L函數(shù)曲線。78.5%的甲型流感病例位于65個(gè)全球城市周圍600公里范圍內(nèi)。同時(shí),北溫帶國(guó)家(地區(qū))的疫情在第45周到第48周之間集中大規(guī)模暴發(fā),早于歷年甲型流感疫情流行高峰時(shí)間。部分北溫帶國(guó)家(地區(qū))在6、7月傳統(tǒng)甲型流感流行季節(jié)仍有大量病例出現(xiàn)。國(guó)際旅行人數(shù)與甲型H1N1流感病例數(shù)的相關(guān)性研究顯示國(guó)際旅行在流感大流行早期(2009年第19、20周)有很強(qiáng)的正相關(guān)性。進(jìn)一步的基于全球城際航空網(wǎng)絡(luò)的聚類分析顯示網(wǎng)絡(luò)中城市對(duì)領(lǐng)域范圍內(nèi)的作用越重要越容易出現(xiàn)疫情。最后,不同氣候帶的疫情比較結(jié)果不符合病毒攻讀實(shí)驗(yàn)低溫干燥環(huán)境有利于流感傳播的結(jié)果。但是,通過(guò)系統(tǒng)的對(duì)照實(shí)驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)疾病組具有較低的平均氣溫,即低溫有利甲型H1N1流感的傳播。然而,降水、絕度濕度、相對(duì)濕度、大氣壓四個(gè)因素沒(méi)有顯著的差別。 綜合考慮甲型H1N1流感的時(shí)空分布以及國(guó)際人口流動(dòng)和甲型H1N1流感的關(guān)系的研究結(jié)果,本文認(rèn)為國(guó)際人口流動(dòng)是流感傳播的重要途徑,主導(dǎo)著本次流感大流行前期全球傳播方向。全球城市在航空網(wǎng)絡(luò)中起重要的作用,是疫情擴(kuò)散的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)。后期疫情主要由各地區(qū)氣候環(huán)境、人口分布等因素主導(dǎo)。不同緯度的環(huán)境條件對(duì)2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行有重要影響,低溫有利甲型H1N1流感的傳播。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to analyze the geographical and temporal distribution characteristics of the early influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009, and to evaluate the impact of international population mobility and regional climatic and environmental differences on the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the context of globalization. First of all, this paper reviews the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009, and summarizes the prevention and control strategies for this epidemic. Secondly, by using the Ripley's K function based on spherical distance, This paper analyzes the spatial distribution pattern of the early pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) in 2009, and compares the number of confirmed cases of influenza A between 2000 and 2012. This paper analyzes the time distribution characteristics of the new cases of influenza A (H1N1) week in different latitude countries and regions. This paper analyzes the correlation between the international population flow and the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, and further analyzes the impact of urban aviation networks on the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) through the establishment of an "embarkation-destination" aviation network. This paper compares the epidemic situation of influenza A (H1N1) in different climatic environments, designs a control group experiment, and studies the effects of five basic climatic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and absolute humidity, on the influenza pandemic in the epidemic area. The results showed that the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic was clustered by the end of June 2009, and its L function curve was similar to that of major cities in the world. 78.5% of influenza A cases were located within 600 kilometers around 65 cities. Outbreaks in northern temperate countries (regions) were concentrated in the 45th to 48th week, Earlier than the previous peak time of influenza A epidemic. Some northern temperate countries (regions) in 6, July there are still a large number of cases in the traditional influenza A epidemic season. International travel and the number of cases of influenza A H1N1 correlation study. International travel is strongly positively correlated in the early stages of the influenza pandemic (week 1920 on 2009). Further clustering analysis based on the global intercity aviation network shows that the more important the role of cities in the network within the domain. Prone to outbreaks. Finally, The results of comparison of epidemic situation in different climatic zones do not accord with the results of virus study in cold and dry environment. However, through systematic controlled experiments, we found that the average temperature of the disease group was lower than that of the control group. However, the four factors of precipitation, absolute humidity, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure have no significant difference. Considering the temporal and spatial distribution of influenza A (H1N1) and the relationship between international population flow and influenza A (H1N1), this paper holds that international population mobility is an important route of influenza transmission. Leading the global transmission direction in the early stages of the pandemic. Global cities play an important role in the aviation network and are the key nodes for the spread of the epidemic. In the latter stage, the epidemic is mainly caused by the climate environment of various regions. Environmental conditions at different latitudes have an important impact on the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009, and low temperatures are conducive to the spread of influenza A (H1N1).
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：R511.7;P208

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