發(fā)布時間：2018-02-26 03:23

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 流感樣病例 bootstrap 移動平均法 預(yù)警　出處：《南京醫(yī)科大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版)》2017年10期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的:應(yīng)用bootstrap方法估計流感樣病例(influenza-like illnesses,ILI)發(fā)病水平95%置信區(qū)間(95%CI)作為預(yù)警閾值,評價該方法在ILI預(yù)警中的價值。方法:以2005—2014年(除2006、2009年)的周監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)為基線,采用歷史2年流感病毒最高陽性檢出率的30%作為流感流行標(biāo)準(zhǔn),確定2006年和2009年流感流行期金標(biāo)準(zhǔn),通過回顧性分析,比較bootstrap法、移動平均法和金標(biāo)流行期的一致性;并以2012—2015年的周監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)為基線,探討bootstrap法在實際預(yù)警工作中的應(yīng)用。結(jié)果:江蘇省ILI流行曲線有2個高峰,冬春季高峰分布于11月—次年2月,夏季高峰分布于6—8月;bootstrap法、移動平均法和金標(biāo)流行期一致性均較好;與移動平均法相比,bootstrap法對2009年初的流感流行相對更敏感,與金標(biāo)流行期的一致性相對更高(kappa=0.728)。采用bootstrap法對2016年ILI%開展預(yù)警,與金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)結(jié)果接近。結(jié)論 :bootstrap法作為一種不依賴于ILI數(shù)據(jù)分布的計算密集型方法 ,可作為傳統(tǒng)移動平均控制圖預(yù)警方法的替代和補充,用于流感流行的監(jiān)測和預(yù)警。
[Abstract]:Objective: to evaluate the value of bootstrap method in ILI early warning by using bootstrap method to estimate the incidence level of influenza-like illnesseses ILI (95% confidence interval 95 CI). Methods: the weekly surveillance data from 2005-2014 (except 2006, 2009) were used as the baseline. Using 30% of the highest positive rate of influenza virus in the past two years as the influenza epidemic standard, the gold standard of influenza epidemic period in 2006 and 2009 was determined. By retrospective analysis, the consistency of bootstrap method, moving average method and gold standard epidemic period was compared. Based on the weekly monitoring data from 2012 to 2015, this paper discusses the application of bootstrap method in practical early warning. Results: there are two peaks in ILI epidemic curve in Jiangsu Province, the peak in winter and spring is from November to February in the following year, and the peak in summer is in June to August with bootstrap method. Compared with the moving average method, the bootstrap method was more sensitive to the influenza epidemic in early 2009 and the consistency was higher than that of the gold standard epidemic period. The bootstrap method was used to warn the ILI% in 2016. Conclusion as a computationally intensive method independent of the distribution of ILI data, the bootstrap method can be used as a substitute and supplement of the traditional moving average control chart warning method for the surveillance and early warning of influenza epidemic.
【作者單位】： 江蘇省疾病預(yù)防控制中心急性傳染病防制所;
【基金】：國家衛(wèi)生計生委科研基金(W201303) 重大新發(fā)傳染病綜合防控科技示范工程(BE2015714) 江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金(BK20151595) 江蘇省青年醫(yī)學(xué)人才(QNRC2016539) 江蘇省臨床醫(yī)學(xué)科技專項(BL2014081)
【分類號】：R511.7
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本文編號：1536337